Analyst: Armenia has become a geopolitical bargaining chip in the  hands of regional players

ArmInfo.  Since 2018 (that is, since Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan came to power - Ed.), Armenia has become a bargaining chip for geopolitical interests that pose risks for the country and are of interest to other regional  players. This observation was made by international lawyer and  political analyst Anna Abrahamyan in response to an article in the  Spanish publication Periodista Digital. The leak of this information  originated in France, specifically from an anonymous representative  of the Armenian community there.

The article, titled "The Memorandum between Armenia, Azerbaijan, and  the United States runs counter to France's interests and will lead  the region to war," according to the analyst, is not actually an  attempt by France to defend Armenian interests, but rather a  declaration of its stake in the region. The expert presented the  article's main points regarding Trump's route and France's position  in this regard. She also noted that the article's authors claim to be  familiar with the text of the document, called the "Memorandum of  Understanding," and further noted that they have connections to  representatives of the ruling party in Armenia and are therefore  aware of all the processes from the inside.

Regarding the presented position on Trump's route, Abrahamyan noted  that, according to the publication, the memorandum envisages a  bilateral economic regional corridor and the so-called "Trump Defense  Gate," which would oversee the route. Regarding the latter, she  explained that this refers to the presence of a US military  contingent, known as an American private military company (PMC).  "According to the source, this company will consist of 1,000 troops   responsible for security along the entire length of the route," the  analyst added. In this vein, Abrahamyan decided to recall the modus  operandi of a similar private military company, currently located in  Gaza and, together with Israel, essentially carrying out a "massacre  of civilians." "No matter how much the Palestinians negotiate, Israel  refuses any agreements.  Currently, only a verbal agreement exists,  which in reality aims to redeploy troops and organize various  sabotage operations to weaken the Palestinian side and advance  Israel's position," the expert noted.

Abrahamyan added that the presence of private military companies  presupposes the absence of any international organizations in the  region with a monitoring mandate and the ability to appeal to  international courts if violations are recorded. "The Spanish  publication's article, in this regard, notes that such PMCs adopt a  suppressive mechanism and are guided by a stricter oversight  methodology only in cases where they pose a strategic interest to the  United States. This approach helps the United States avoid any form  of accountability and avoid reporting to its electorate, as all  potential losses do not concern the American military. In this  regard, the Spanish publication emphasized that the presence of  American troops on Armenian territory is sufficient to make Prime  Minister Nikol Pashinyan's signing of the memorandum a national  betrayal," the expert said, referring to the approach presented in  the article.

Abrahamyan stated that the use of force by this PMC to ensure the  corridor's integrity will,  particularly, depend on the interests of  the American side and how the situation develops. However, she noted  that this fits within the logic of the risk of France losing its  sphere of influence in the region.

To demonstrate the promotion of other French interests, the expert  presented another opinion from the article. Specifically, the  political analyst noted, according to a source, the memorandum would  mean the deprivation of Armenia's sovereignty and the advancement of  Turkey's interests. "Europe will also lose from this, as Armenia  would effectively be occupied by specially designated armed forces  operating under the US flag, meaning the exclusion of other partners,  such as the EU or France," the publication further noted.

Summarizing the above, Abrahamyan noted that this article  demonstrates a complete disregard for the interests of the Armenian  side, as it fails to present even the opinions of Armenian experts.  She also expressed her conviction that it is the Armenian community,  some parties, and Armenian churches in the "Western" dioceses that  support Pashinyan's government, all of which, she claimed, is being  carried out with the support of France. "Therefore, even if France or  the EU are involved in these processes at some point, their actions  will in no way be guided by the interests of the Armenian side," the  analyst asserted.

To support her assertion, the expert also mentioned that the primary  interest of the French and American sides in the region is the  weakening of Russia, Iran, and China. In this context, the regulation  of corridors in the region cannot be implemented within the framework  of China's "One Belt, One Road" or "North-South" projects. "Instead,  they prefer the Middle Corridor, which is a project of Western powers  and which will be completely controlled by them," the analyst  clarified.

As further confirmation of the inconsistency between the French  side's statements and Armenia's interests, she recalled that France  is the largest lobbyist for Azerbaijan's interests and the transit of  Azerbaijani gas through Turkey. "This also confirms that official  Paris will not support Armenia, beyond a few small, demonstrative  actions," Abrahamyan explained.

According to the expert,  such articles and the ideas they contain  reflect a struggle for spheres of influence, including between France  and the United States. She expressed her conviction that the article  merely demonstrates France's fears, as a former member of the OSCE  Minsk Group (i.e., a country that once had influence in matters  between Armenia and Azerbaijan - Ed.), of losing its significance in  the region amid the US-created geopolitical situation. "Meanwhile,  Armenia must understand that this route is not a 'gateway to  Armenia's defense,' as the American side presents it, but rather the  'Trump route.' This, in turn, means a green light for Turkey and  Israel to strengthen their presence here, and therefore implement a  policy of neutralizing Armenians. Attacks on the Mother See and the  Catholicos are merely a precursor to an attack on Syunik," the expert  concluded.