TRIPP Game changer of entire region - Armenia`s economy minister

ArmInfo. Negative expectations surrounding the possible opening of Armenia's borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey have been scientifically refuted. This was stated by RA Minister of Economy Gevorg Papoyan on September 24 at a panel discussion titled "Armenia's New Reality as an Economic Shock," while presenting the main points of his article "Crossroads of Peace: Advancing Regional Integration and Global Trade Through Post-Conflict Cooperation" in the Journal of Liberty and International Affairs.

According to Papoyan, when writing the article, the authors believed that peace should be established in the region, which would open up new import and export opportunities for Armenia and generate a positive economic shock. This applies not only to the opening of roads or railways, but also to the opportunities that will be created as a result of the implementation of the Crossroads of Peace project - this concerns the creation of a secure environment in Armenia and the positive economic impact, he continued.

"We calculated the Export Similarity Index (ESI) to identify similarities in the exports of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Turkey. The value was very low - 0.25. This suggests that Armenia and Azerbaijan, and Armenia and Turkey, primarily export different products, and there is no similarity in the export market. At the same time, the Trade Complementarity Index (TCI) is quite high - 0.5, indicating that the exports of one country meet the import needs of another," Papoyan said.

All this, the minister continued, points to the creation of an entirely new situation. That is, Armenia can import the goods it currently needs from other countries at a much lower price. This will lead not only to diversification but also to lower prices.

The minister believes that there is too much politics in this matter. Many are politicizing the issue to suit their own political interests - some talk about broad prospects, while their counterparts threaten economic collapse. "We tried to put all of this aside and understand what we might face if the borders were opened," Gevorg Papoyan noted.

From this perspective, the article's authors calculated that if the borders were opened, trade turnover between Armenia and Turkey in 2024 would amount to $780-790 million.

Touching on the ground, the Minister of Economy stated that if Armenia's borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey are fully opened, seven checkpoints will be operational, as well as rail service, particularly in the Meghri, Yeraskh, and Gyumri regions.

Without specifying the required investment amount or funding sources, Papoyan noted that international experience shows that every dollar invested in transport infrastructure generates an average economic impact of $1.50.

The Trump Route (TRIPP) is only one part of the Crossroads of Peace transport project - the next stage of its implementation, like the North-South project. "This will allow us to move from a dialogue about peace to a discourse on 'peace through economics,' generating economic interest for Armenia itself, neighboring countries, and major international actors, thereby ensuring peace for Armenia and becoming a powerful game changer for the entire region," said Minister of Economy Gevorg Papoyan.