No talks about epoch of peace possible now - expert 

ArmInfo.  It is impossible to talk about an era of peace as of today. This is how orientalist Sergey Melkonyan commented on the results of the Armenian-Azerbaijani summit in Washington.

Speaking about what Armenia received from the August 8 summit in  Washington, the expert stated that the initialing of the peace treaty  allows postponing a potential escalation, but not canceling it.  According to him, the prospect of opening the border with Turkey has  also been outlined, although there may be more problems than benefits  here.

Touching on what Azerbaijan received, Melkonyan noted that first of  all, this is the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group - the  legalization of the closure of the "Karabakh issue". "Yerevan and  Baku have already sent a joint statement to the OSCE. However, the  procedure remains unclear: should the co-chairs (Russia, the United  States and France) send a corresponding appeal.

In addition, the cancellation of Section 907 of the Freedom Support  Act is a de facto opening of the door to military-technical  cooperation between the United States and Azerbaijan. Exclusive  conditions for the road to Nakhichevan: Baku received another  document, which outlines "unhindered" access to its exclave"

Based on this, we can conclude that Azerbaijan has already received  specific benefits, while Armenia can only be content with prospects  (reduced risk of escalation in the near future and possible opening  of communications)," Melkonyan emphasized.

Speaking about the consequences for Russia, the expert noted that the  creation of a new status quo continues in the South Caucasus without  Russia's participation and without taking into account its interests.   However, he is sure that it is too early to say that Moscow has  completely left the region - options for possible participation in  the future configuration remain.

"At the same time, it is possible talk about the loss of Russia's  monopoly in the processes, which means the need to find a new model  of competition and cooperation with regional and extra-regional  actors," the orientalist added.

The expert also outlined the consequences for Iran, noting that the  concluded deal is a challenge to the interests of the Islamic  Republic. "The potential placement of American companies in close  proximity to the northern borders will lead to more active  involvement of Tehran to mitigate potential risks. In this case,  Iran, like Russia, was left out of the formation of new contours of  the region," he is sure.

Melkonyan believes that the growth of Turkey's influence after these  agreements, taking into account the current dynamics, is obvious.  "Ankara is getting prospects to become a key regional actor in the  South Caucasus. Whether it will be able to realize the advantage will  depend on many factors (how TRIPP will be implemented and whether it  will be implemented at all; whether the agreement in Washington will  lead to a partial or complete opening of the border with Armenia,  etc.)," the orientalist added.

At the same time, he noted that Armenia had actually made two more  concessions. "Firstly, Armenia's position was previously based on the  fact that it was ready to provide a road for Azerbaijan to  Nakhichevan on the same terms that Iran provided within the framework  of the "Araz Corridor". However, now we see that the conditions are  completely different: Azerbaijan has unhindered access through Iran  and there will definitely be no American companies on this  communication line, as envisaged in the TRIPP framework.  Secondly,  Armenia had previously stated that it was ready to submit a statement  on the dissolution of the Minsk Group in parallel with the signing of  a peace treaty. As a result, Yerevan did not receive a signed peace  treaty, but has already submitted a statement on the dissolution of  the MG," the expert noted.

According to him, Armenia will additionally need to review the  actions of the EU observation mission, which must leave the  Armenian-Azerbaijani border, in accordance with the initialed  agreement. He suggested that the mission may remain in a different  format.

"In this case, Armenia will become the most internationalized country  in the region, since European observers, Russian border guards, a  Russian military base and an American company will be located on its  territory. Yerevan will also be obliged to change the Constitution  (which already violates Article 4 of the initialed agreement on  non-interference in each other's internal affairs). Considering that,  according to various polls, 600,000 votes in support of changing the  Constitution at the request of Azerbaijan are not collected, the  signing of the peace treaty will be postponed for a long time,"  Melkonyan noted.

At the same time, the orientalist noted that the only concession for  Baku can be considered the initialing of the document, since there is  no additional benefit for Azerbaijan (except for creating an  opportunity for qualitative growth in relations with the United  States).

"However, given that the statement itself and the initialed document  are a declaration of intent and do not oblige Azerbaijan to anything  in fact, Baku is free to act within the framework of the existing  "modus operandi" - to demand new concessions from Armenia. The issue  of the so-called "enclaves" may be on the agenda in the future.

In addition, as was said, in addition to the 2020 Statement, Baku  receives another document providing for unhindered access to  Nakhchivan. Thus, in the event of a change in the regional and  international situation that leads to the disruption of this project,  Azerbaijan will receive additional legitimacy to open the road by  force," the expert believes.

"It is impossible to talk about an era of peace as of today. Until  Azerbaijan decides to implement the following points, which are an  important element of the conflict, it is impossible to talk about the  peaceful intentions of the Azerbaijani side or the approach of peace:  the return of Armenian prisoners held in Baku; de-occupation of the  territory of Armenia (more than 200 km2 captured in 2021-2022); the  realization of the rights of the forcibly expelled residents of  Nagorno-Karabakh; maintaining on Baku's agenda expansionist projects  such as the so-called "Western Azerbaijan", which pose a threat to  the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Armenia," the  orientalist concluded.