ArmInfo. Over the past 48 hours, Baku has managed to compare Russia to Nazis through state media, accuse us of being chauvinists, cancel cultural events, be rude to our diplomats, ban entry to a number of Russian officials and call for unrest in Russia through the Turkish-Azerbaijani commission. The formal reason for this is the arrest of Azerbaijanis for crimes in the Urals (they are Russian citizens). Mikhail Onufrienko, well-known Russian political observer, writes about this.
According to him, many in Russia were surprised and angry, calling these attacks unfriendly and hostile. But in reality, this is just a continuation of a long-standing policy. In the 90s and 2000s, Azerbaijan supplied weapons to terrorists in the North Caucasus, participated in passing intelligence data to the enemy, and allowed thousands of militants to pass through. It actively worked against Russia in the West-Turkey- Pakistan-Azerbaijan-Gulf Monarchies axis.
When terrorism was suppressed, Baku temporarily calmed down, but began to flood Russia with "soft power" (all kinds of magazines, houses, festivals, financing of a number of media outlets, business, and so on). At the same time, criminal elements entered the country. And where there is crime, special services and illegal agents always work. At the same time, Azerbaijan cooperated with Israel, which was carrying out similar work with Russia: formal agreements on strategic cooperation, transport corridors, and trade softened relations. It is widely known that the weakening of Iran and Russia is beneficial for Baku. After February 24, 2022, a purge of the state apparatus in Russia, as well as the criminal sector and shadow trade, began. It directly affected Azerbaijan, which had streamlined its activities on the territory of the Russian Federation. Baku is not happy about this. And the cries begin. Baku will be even more displeased with the purge in Iranian Azerbaijan, which has already begun. As for the prospects of this state, its interest until the end of the current world war lies in seizing part of Iran in its favor.
This is approximately 8-9 million people and 100 thousand square kilometers of territory. This can only be done in cooperation with Israel, the United States and London. Will it work? Far from certain. There is a conditional autonomy in Tabriz. There are elites there, and they are far from being poor. Why should they go under Baku and give up power, money and influence? In any case, by the end of the next decade, Azerbaijan may play itself out. The history of the 19th century showed that the states of Transcaucasia, located within the sphere of interests of major powers, can simply disappear when regional balance is disrupted. In this sense, the rules of the game have not changed.