ArmInfo. The tension in Russian-Azerbaijani and Iranian- Azerbaijani relations, which is not new and which has been actively manifesting itself again in recent days, can be interpreted by the following simple formula: the redrawing of physical borders and zones of influence in the South Caucasus, which began after the war in Artsakh in 2020, has not yet been completed. Turkologist Varuzhan Geghamyan writes about this in his article.
According to him, at the moment there is no clear balance of power that would ensure a long-term status quo, as it was in 1994 after the victory of the Armenian armies. "For this reason, all parties are "playing" to preserve their share, and if possible, to increase it. At the moment, the most active player is Turkey, which operates through Azerbaijan. I will not go into the arrests in Russia and Azerbaijan, or other details. By and large, they are meaningless. However, in this situation, there is good, bad and very bad news," the political scientist noted.
He attributed the limited capabilities of Turkey, and therefore Azerbaijan, to the good news, given numerous circumstances - from the domestic political and economic crisis to the limited tools for confronting Iran and Russia, which opens up a large field for Armenia to play.
The bad news is that Turkey's capabilities are still sufficient to dictate its game in the region, strengthen its position, and expand its sphere of influence. Its main goal is Armenia, and its main tool is the "Zangezur Corridor" political program.
"The construction of the infrastructure part of this program is currently in full swing. Political negotiations are underway in parallel.
Pashinyan's recent visit to Istanbul and the Turan issue are only part of this. The worst thing is that our country is still ruled by a capitulator who sees no problem in the spread of Turkish influence on us, which for us means not just dependence on Turkey, but a complete collapse of sovereignty, the destruction of Armenian defense systems and, ultimately, a repeat of the fate of Artsakh. And the saddest thing is that in this situation, a national, capable government would have already achieved many successes, our country would have strengthened its position thanks to proper work. These opportunities still exist," the political scientist emphasized.