Political scientist: Azerbaijan continues to consistently implement the policy of weakening Armenia

ArmInfo. It does not matter to  Azerbaijan how strong or weak Armenia's position is, they continue to  consistently implement a policy of weakening it as much as possible.  Political scientist David Arutyunov stated aid this in an interview  with an ArmInfo correspondent, while addressing the increasing  disinformation from the Azerbaijani side regarding Armenia's alleged  violations of the ceasefire and simultaneous shelling of Armenian  territories.  The expert firmly believes that this is part of clear  information campaign as part of Azerbaijan's policy to pressure  Armenia. According to the political scientist, Azerbaijan has been  following the same scheme for a long time, signaling the preparation  of an information backdrop for a potential escalation, and  serving  as an instrument for exerting pressure.

"It is not yet clear which of the numerous demands on Armenia are a  priority for Azerbaijan, but the purpose of the shelling is to  fulfill these demands. These could involve enclaves, opening  communications, or changing the timing of the referendum on the  Constitution of Armenia. Azerbaijan's strategy is to permanently  pressure Armenia. And the more Armenia gives in to Azerbaijan's  demands, the more new conditions it puts forward," the political  scientist clarified. As Arutyunov noted, in the current tensions,  Armenia has little room to maneuver. All that remains is to refute  the statements of the Azerbaijani side and minimize Azerbaijan's  ability to use the situation to its advantage.

Arutyunov also noted that regardless of the presence or absence of  relevant statements and actions by the Armenian side, the likelihood  of an escalation of the conflict still exists. However, he emphasized  that it is not as important whether Azerbaijan is ready for any  large-scale steps at this stage, but rather to what extent Armenia is  prepared for such challenges. "Here we are talking not only about the  military balance of forces, but also  the moral and amorphous state  of Armenian society. In principle, the statements of the Armenian  side demonstrate the country's weakness, and in order to show  strength, you need to have it." Discussing the potential  signing of  a peace treaty amidst the constant escalation of the situation by the  Azerbaijani side, the expert pointed out that  even if a peace treaty  were reached, it would not solve the problems that currently exist  between the countries. The political scientist expressed doubt  that   a peace treaty is a realistic possibility in the near future, as it  would likely not stop Azerbaijan's aggressive rhetoric and military  build-up. At the same time, according to him, Armenia needs a serious  restructuring at both the public  and  military levels  to be  prepared for possible clashes with Azerbaijan.

 "But so far, in my opinion, there are currently  no political forces  in Armenia capable of doing this. This is one of the problems of the  domestic political situation in the country. Armenian Prime Minister  Nikol Pashinyan's strenght lies in the fact that the opposition has  not been able to put forward an adequate alternative to his  leadership. This alternative would involve precisely this kind of  restructuring. However, the opposition's approach so far is  to  solely blame Pashinyan: if he is replaced, everything will  immediately get better. But this is not the case, since there are  many systemic problems in Armenia," Arutyunov explained. "There are  no political forces offering comprehensive solutions to guide Armenia  out of the crisis it has been experiencing since 2020. But this is a  complex task that requires the participation of Armenian society as a  whole," the political scientist concluded.