Russia should be ready to offer new opportunities for Armenia`s  development - MP

ArmInfo. Future generations of the Armenian people will be able to boldly put an equal sign between all participants in today's political process due to the lost  Artsakh, trampled national dignity and violation of state  sovereignty. Former Deputy Prime Minister, Member of the National  Assembly of the Republic of Armenia from the opposition faction "I  have the honor" Armen Gevorgyan wrote about this in his article on  the website of the Alternative Projects Group.

According to his forecasts, the main regional focus and goal of the  United States has been and will remain Iran and everything connected  with it. For this reason, Washington's interest in the region will  not weaken.  This interest will contribute to the development of  closer relations between Azerbaijan and Israel. "That is why the  understanding that as a result of the "reformatting" of  Russian-American relations the region will remain under the aegis of  Russia is not rational. The Armenian-Azerbaijani peace agreement and  the so- called "Zangezur corridor" will at least remain in the sphere  of hidden interests of the United States and its regional allies.  Turkey will continue to fight to realize its ambitions and gain  dominance in the region, which may receive behind-the-scenes support  from the United States. In turn, Azerbaijan will seek to limit the  influence of Turkey, Russia and Iran on its independent positioning  in the region and strengthen relations with Israel, with the help of  which it will resolve its issues with the new American  administration.  Russia will proceed from the fact that a mutual  understanding has been reached with the United States regarding its  strategic presence and areas of interest, including in the South  Caucasus, and will persistently demand this from its regional  partners. This implies an obvious desire to curb Turkey's appetites.  The West will intensify the Russian-Chinese-Indian transport and  logistics race and competition. The North-South corridor from China  to Europe via Central Asia and the South Caucasus, as well as the new  Arab-Indian transport route to Europe. The aggravation of interests  in this area could become a real challenge to the viability of  BRICS+, the politician writes.

For this reason, according to Gevorkyan, there will remain a great  potential for confrontation in the South Caucasus region. Russia will  not automatically become a regional hegemon in the South Caucasus in  resolving the problems between the parties. Time will tell what  levers and mechanisms of influence Russia will choose and apply,  including in terms of rethinking the integration formats. "The most  difficult test for the "three giants" of our region in the near  future will be the Turkish factor. Russia will inevitably have to  enter into a strategic dialogue with Turkey, since the areas of  contact are very extensive: the Black Sea and the war in Ukraine,  Syria and the Russian military presence there, the South Caucasus,  Central Asia and North Africa. The latest events in Abkhazia show  that for the Turkish ruling elite there are no taboos in relations  with Russia, and they may be absent even when there is a need to  destabilize individual regions of Russia. The forced strengthening of  the factor of Russian-Turkish energy cooperation creates new formats  of interdependence and tension. Turkey, with the support of Western  partners, will strive to implement new projects for the transit of  gas and oil from the Persian Gulf and Central Asia to Europe as  quickly as possible, which will clearly contradict the interests of  Russia. The situation for Russia is somewhat complicated by the fact  that the traditional relations between Russia and Armenia, in which  the component of neutralizing Turkish risks for Armenia played a  significant role, have begun to deform.

The current Armenian authorities are ready to accept Turkey's  dominant position in the region, while Russia has so far only  declaratively expressed its strategic disagreement with this course  of events. As a result, "3+3" formats are emerging, the viability of  which will depend on the results of the global "reformatting". Turkey  should also establish more constructive relations with China in the  context of its strategic interests in implementing new transport and  communication projects in the South Caucasus and strategic  representation in Central Asia, and limit its active interest in  Uyghur rights issues, since the opposite could stimulate Kurdish  ambitions in the region outside Turkey," the parliamentarian noted. 

He added that the growing strategic partnership between Azerbaijan  and Israel poses a new challenge to the future of regional stability  and security. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev wants to free  himself from dependence on both Russia and Turkey, so he makes Israel  his new ally, essentially increasing antagonism in relations with  Russia, Turkey and Iran.

"Israel is becoming not only an ally of Azerbaijan, but also a global  economic partner, as well as the main "advocate" of the Aliyev  family. Azerbaijan invests billions earned from its own oil and gas  in other projects outside the region, especially in Israeli ones,  because, firstly, its own natural resources are already depleted, and  secondly, it seeks to attract attention and continue to influence the  development of events in the region. Despite the current  Russian-Azerbaijani energy partnership, Russia should be interested  in limiting the economic opportunities of Azerbaijan, since this  leads to its strong militarization, which becomes a factor of  instability and new challenges in the region, including on the  southern borders of Russia. Aliyev's grandiose ambitions may conflict  with issues of domestic political stability and the implementation of  the rights of national minorities in this country.  Therefore, the  issues of continuing the activities of the OSCE Minsk Group, the  return of Artsakh Armenians, the release of Armenian prisoners of  war, the preservation of Armenian cultural and religious heritage in  Artsakh may again become legitimate topics for Russia in relations  with Azerbaijan. It is obvious that Russia will seek the most  difficult solutions in Armenia, where it will first of all need to  find a strategically reliable partner that will be sufficiently  prepared for a tough but constructive dialogue with the Turkic world.  Although Russia will strive to dismantle the institutional mechanisms  of Western influence throughout the region, using the experience of  Georgia, it will be necessary to clearly understand and pragmatically  accept the reality that a significant part of society in Armenia can  no longer accept and come to terms with the absence of an alternative  to the pro-Russian orientation. And all future authorities of Armenia  will have to take this situation into account. Russia should also be  ready to offer new prospects and opportunities for the growth of the  well-being of the population, introduce a completely new bilateral  format of strategic cooperation and guarantees for ensuring the  security and sovereignty of Armenia, support new regional and  trans-regional development programs with the participation of  Armenia. In the context of the development of potential  infrastructure projects (the construction of a new Iran-Armenia gas  pipeline for the transit of Turkmen-Iranian gas to Europe, a new  Iran-Armenia railway and the commissioning of a railway through the  territory of Abkhazia to organize new transport flows from the  Persian Gulf to the Black Sea basin, the construction of a new  nuclear power plant, etc.), it will be logical to strengthen  military-technical, bilateral cooperation with Russia. The main  message of the renewed cooperation will be not only the  neutralization of the risks of new anti-Armenian aggression, but also  the protection of the entire infrastructure of the North-South  corridor, passing through the territory of Armenia and of vital  importance for the BRICS+ countries.

From an economic point of view, Armenia is not important enough to  become a new focus for the United States. The rules of the game that  the current Armenian authorities are accustomed to in relations with  the West will no longer apply in the coming years. Each case will  have its own individual set of solutions. We need to work with Europe  pragmatically. The latest events around Ukraine show that there is no  hope for practical European measures to protect our sovereignty and  ensure security. Incidentally, this was initially clear to all  reasonable people. Europe itself is now looking for real mechanisms  to ensure its security. Yerevan, first of all, should be careful and  not abuse its aspirations to become a regional center of  "liberalism", so as not to turn into a "toxic neighbor" for those who  still maintain relatively smooth and friendly relations with Armenia,  for example, Georgia and Iran. The problem of power in Armenia is  inevitably exacerbating. Aliyev and Erdogan, like Europe, have a  practical interest in preserving the current government in order to  stimulate anti-Russian sentiments, even without the prospect of  "interaction". And the majority of Armenian society is quickly losing  practical interest in the "velvet power". The main problem within the  country is the search for an alternative that can replace the current  government at this stage of global transformations. Obviously, the  longer this alternative does not appear, the longer the current  agonizing domestic and foreign policy will continue, and the  opportunities opening up for Armenia to position itself and develop  in a new, unique geopolitical direction may be finally closed. In  this case, the responsibility for the further preservation of the  unnatural domestic political situation will fall on the shoulders of  non-state political forces and institutions. It should be remembered  that history, as a rule, does not like "ifs" and does not tolerate  subjective sentiments, and future generations can boldly put an equal  sign between all participants in today's political process because of  the lost Artsakh, trampled national dignity, violation of state  sovereignty," Armen Gevorgyan emphasized.