ArmInfo.The Foreign Intelligence Service of Armenia considers it unlikely that the grounds for freezing Armenia's membership in the CSTO will disappear in 2025. This is stated in the annual report on the external risks of the Republic of Armenia in 2025 published by the SVR.
The report notes that the viability of military blocs will still remain in question.
"The viability of military alliances will remain challenged. In this regard, contrary to the founding agreement regulations, the CSTO's incapacity (non-viability) to respond to the issues in the South Caucasus that are within CSTO statutory objectives, highly likely will not change. We assess it as unlikely that in 2025 the reasons why Armenia froze its membership, will change. Based on this, we assess that the prestige of this organization will remain significantly questioned and a "food for thought" for other member states," the report reads.
"The trend of increasing defense expenditure, arms procurement and development of the military industry by countries in and out of the region will be maintained. Therefore, a military response to problems will remain a primary modus operandi for the players of our smaller region as well. These circumstances will continue creating asymmetric risks for states with objectively small reserves of material and non-material resources such as Armenia."
"In 2025, cyber attacks against Armenia's critical infrastructures and defense capabilities will remain a challenge. Cyber attacks are an integral part of the hybrid pressure toolkit applied against the Republic of Armenia. The goal of cyber targeting of varying intensity against Armenia's critical infrastructures will remain as a means to pressure Armenia to adopt decisions contrary to our state interests through economic, political, psychological and informational malign influences."
"In 2025 economic and logistical dependence of the Republic of Armenia on external actors will most likely continue to be used as a tool of political influence. In 2025, since it is a pre-election year, some countries will try to use Armenia's economic dependence for political influence in a more accentuated and obvious way as an opportunity to interfere into Armenia's internal affairs and influence broad segments of the public. In order to have a negative impact on internal stability and public opinion, actors serving their own strategic interests in the region, will try to create artificial logistical obstacles, unnecessary administrative complications and arbitrary interpretation of contractual obligations. In this situation, searching for and utilizing opportunities to diversify economic dependencies or create interdependencies can become a window of opportunity for Armenia in terms of balancing external harmful strains and ensuring economic development."
https://armenpress.am/storage/content/2025/pdf/Annual_Report_ENGLISH.pdf