ArmInfo.The Foreign Intelligence Service of Armenia considers the probability of a large-scale attack by Azerbaijan on Armenia to be low at the moment. This is stated in the annual report on external risks of the Republic of Armenia in 2025 published by the Foreign Intelligence Service.
"In 2025, it is highly likely that bilateral formats of negotiations around various issues between Armenia and Azerbaijan will remain the most effective of the ones used by the parties before.
"Based on the analysis of various facts, information and phenomena, at the time of publishing of this report, the likelihood of a large-scale attack on Armenia by the Azerbaijani side is not assessed as high. Meanwhile, in the absence of a peace agreement and interstate relations, the risk of local tensions and escalation on the border will remain a part of Azerbaijan's policy of the threat of use of force. A potential guarantee for addressing this risk can be the smooth continuation of the delimitation and demarcation process, started in 2024," the report reads.
"In 2025, Azerbaijan will maintain the pace of development of its own offensive military capabilities by decreasing the time between the high-level political decision to initiate a military action and the launch of a military action on the ground. Within this framework, Azerbaijan will continue working on the transition to more mobile units, training of their reserve, acquisition and import of new armaments, as well as upgrade of military infrastructure."
"Various actors' efforts (from economic sanctions to targeted military strikes) to deter and counter Iran's nuclear program can form a more complicated security situation in the
"Russia-Ukraine: In any scenario, developments of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will directly or indirectly impact the security environment of Armenia. The possible factors of this influence are both the circumstance of potentially vacating resources of regional actors and intensification of competition or counteraction between power actors in the South Caucasus."
The report is available here: https://armenpress.am/storage/content/2025/pdf/Annual_Report_ENGLISH.pdf