Aliyev could provoke border tensions in his own interests - expert 

ArmInfo. In order for all scenarios to work in the interests of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, he needs to create tension on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. This opinion was expressed by the president of the analytical center "Women and Global Security Architecture", security specialist, political scientist Armine Margaryan, reacting to Aliyev's ultimatum  statements made in an interview with local TV channels. 

In this vein, Margaryan drew attention to an event that could become a reason for a new escalation on the part of Aliyev. Thus, she recalled that in the coming days Armenia will become a strategic partner of the United States. "Aliyev is not stupid and is well aware that Armenia, as a strategic partner of the United States, can surround itself with economic, energy and military security mechanisms in the medium and long term. This will create a comprehensive barrier, which, of course, worries Aliyev. He positions himself as a regional sub-hegemon, and this implies that any extra-regional player must synchronize its policy with the interests of Azerbaijan," the expert explained.

According to her, in such conditions, it is extremely important for the President of Azerbaijan to quickly establish the rules of the game in the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement process, which will imply recognition of the sub-hegemon status of Azerbaijan by the outgoing American administration. At the same time, as Margaryan noted, Aliyev is aware of the presence of another circumstance that could play into his hands. In this regard, she recalled that the signing of the document on the Armenian-American strategic partnership will take place with the outgoing US administration.

"This means that the Armenian side will have to hold additional  negotiations with the Trump administration to confirm the principles and obligations enshrined in this document. In addition, Trump's arrival could introduce new, unpredictable rules into the global context," Margaryan continued.

In this regard, the expert presented two possible scenarios for the development of events that could be used by the Azerbaijani leadership. The first scenario, according to her, assumes that the new American administration will be actively involved in the Armenian-Azerbaijani process, offering approaches that are beneficial to Azerbaijan, such as the issues of "demilitarization", "denazification" and other similar topics on the negotiating agenda. The second scenario, as the expert noted, is that the new US administration will decide not to interfere in the situation, since, as Aliyev noted in his interview, "Turkish-Azerbaijani military cooperation ensures stability in the region." 

"In this case, Azerbaijan will be able to realize its ambitions to  become an instrument of counteraction to Iran and a mediator in reducing tensions between the West and Russia, which will allow it to gain the status of a decisive player in regional issues," the president of the analytical center added.

At the same time, as Margaryan emphasized, the scenarios may be different, depending on the development of the situation. She emphasized that in these conditions, it is important to understand one thing: it is necessary to act on the basis of reasonable analysis and calculations, and not to succumb to emotions, and recalled that just a few days before the start of the 44-day war in Artsakh, the Armenian leadership was already "pointing" at Turkey.

In an interview with local TV channels on January 7, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev again gave "advice" to Armenia regarding its behavior in the current geopolitical situation. He expressed hope that all of Azerbaijan's conditions for a peace treaty would be accepted, calling on the Armenian side to carefully weigh all the circumstances, including geopolitical changes in the world. "If Armenia does not need a peace treaty, then we do not need it either. We can live and pursue our policy without signing it," Aliyev said.

During the interview, the President of Azerbaijan also once again touched upon the issue of the so-called "Zangezur corridor", stressing that it should and will be opened.

In addition, Aliyev noted that the Prime Minister of Armenia should receive representatives of the community of Western Azerbaijan, adding that Azerbaijanis have every right to return. The President of Azerbaijan stated that "today Armenia positions itself as a country following the path of European democracy. Let it clearly show this", stressing that this issue will remain relevant until Azerbaijanis can safely return to Western Azerbaijan, including Western Zangezur.