Armenian cannot afford one more year of stagnation and mismanagement  - Vardan Oskanyan

ArmInfo. By the end of 2024, it is becoming clear that Armenia is mired in an unprecedented period of national challenges and uncertainty. Five key trends have defined this year, each more alarming than the last, and underscoring the urgent need to change the country's governance system and political direction. This was written on his Facebook page by former Foreign Minister of Armenia Vardan Oskanyan.

The diplomat noted that the consequences of the failures of the  Armenian government's foreign and regional policies in previous years have not only not been overcome, but have worsened. "Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's approach to negotiations with Azerbaijan symbolizes a dangerous and repeated mistake.  His peace rhetoric, while theoretically laudable, has been followed by a series of unilateral concessions over the course of a year, further emboldening Baku and weakening Armenia's position. Each new concession arguably exacerbates Azerbaijan's demands and threats, moving us further away from a just peace. This process has left the country vulnerable,  frustrated, and largely bereft of Pashinyan's promises," Oskanyan added.

According to him, Armenia's geopolitical isolation has only deepened, and Pashinyan has failed to pull the country out of the vicious circle. According to him, by all accounts, it seems impossible to break out of this circle under the current leadership.

"Traditional allies like Russia and Iran do not trust Pashinyan's  government, while Turkey and Azerbaijan remain skeptical of his words. Even the West, which seems to be providing some support, does so not out of trust in him, but out of a marriage of convenience driven by the lack of better alternatives to achieve his goals.

Pashinyan's shortcomings in diplomatic and military-political  knowledge, coupled with a lack of a coherent strategy and irrational decision-making, have worsened Armenia's predicament. In the absence of serious efforts to build new alliances, this diplomatic inertia has made Armenia ungovernable in an increasingly complex international environment," the former Armenian Foreign Minister  believes.

The diplomat added that while macroeconomic indicators may point to economic resilience, this is largely due to the unintended benefits of Western sanctions against Russia, which have redirected some economic activity to Armenia.

"However, most Armenians do not feel the benefits. The rising cost of living, stagnant wages, growing external debt, lack of foreign investment, limited job creation and excessively high taxes have not changed the plight of ordinary citizens, which indicates a gap between macroeconomic indicators and everyday reality," Oskanyan noted.

At the same time, the diplomat noted that perhaps the most alarming trend of 2024 is the erosion of Armenia's democracy, which has moved into an authoritarian phase. "What began in 2018 as a hopeful period of democratic renewal under Pashinyan has devolved into one-man rule. Despite historically low levels of public trust, Pashinyan retains power thanks to a parliamentary majority that shields him from accountability. This excessive concentration of power reflects a deeper flaw in Armenia's democratic system: its inability to hold leaders accountable or form a viable opposition," Oskanyan said.

The diplomat noted that under Pashinyan, institutions vital to  democracy, such as an independent judiciary, a free press, and a vibrant civil society, have been further weakened. According to him, by marginalizing dissent and consolidating power, his administration has sowed apathy and disillusionment among voters.

"By suppressing dissent and centralizing power, his government has sowed apathy and disillusionment among voters. Many Armenians now doubt the effectiveness of elections as an instrument of change, fearing that a meaningful democratic transition of power is becoming increasingly difficult to achieve.

Corruption, once the scourge of Armenia's political system, has  become more insidious and institutionalized this year, undermining the country's democratic foundations. The ruling elite's misuse of taxpayers' money has reached unprecedented levels, channeling public funds through opaque schemes and providing unjustified bonuses and privileges to those loyal to it," the former Armenian foreign minister noted.

According to her, such actions represent a systemic betrayal of  public trust that exacerbates inequality and despair. Oskanyan noted that the growing culture of corruption is undermining the foundations of the country, leaving people with the painful realization that the state has become an instrument of private gain rather than the public good.

"Finally, Armenian society remains deeply divided. Polarization and mistrust, fueled by political manipulation and social tensions, have created a divisive atmosphere of hostility. Such fragmentation of society weakens collective action and Armenia's ability to confront challenges together," Oskanyan said.

At the same time, the diplomat believes that in early 2025, attention will inevitably turn to the parliamentary elections scheduled for June 2026, which may be snap elections given the unstable political environment.

"One thing is clear: Armenia cannot afford another year of stagnation and poor governance. The need for a change of government has never been more obvious. The coming months must be a period of self-criticism and rethinking of the country's capabilities.

The stakes have never been higher. There is an urgent need to form a leadership with a clear vision of Armenia's role and mission in the world, which prioritizes national unity, real reforms, and a renewed commitment to democratic principles. Armenia is an important watershed, and the decisions made in the near future will determine its trajectory for the coming decades," Oskanyan concluded.