Baku is perfectly aware Armenia has best leadership in Azerbaijan`s  interests - Sergey Melkonyan

ArmInfo. . Baku understands perfectly well that it will never have a better leadership in Yerevan than it has now. This was stated in an interview with an ArmInfo  correspondent by political scientist, candidate of historical  sciences, research fellow at the Armenian Teacher's Training  Institute Sergey Melkonyan. 

As the expert emphasized, the likelihood of an escalation of the  conflict has increased, especially against the backdrop of the  completion of the Climate Summit (COP29) in Baku, which served as one  of the restraining factors. In addition, the US elections and the  upcoming negotiations on Ukraine contributed to the increased risk of  escalation of the situation. "In this context, the importance of the  South Caucasus is gradually decreasing on the global agenda. The  above indicators indicate that a favorable basis is being created for  an escalation of the conflict. Thus, we are seeing how Armenia is  gradually climbing the escalation ladder," Melkonyan explained.

At the same time, according to the expert, there are several  indicators that confirm this assumption: Baku's transfer of weapons  to Nakhichevan, increased arms supplies from Israel, and joint  exercises between Azerbaijan and Iran. "Azerbaijan is trying to  demonstrate that its policy is not directed against Iran's interests.  But in fact, they will indirectly strike Iran if they strike Armenia.  Military activity is also supported by statements about the need to  demilitarize Armenia. The next step in escalation could be  accusations against Armenia of increasing its offensive potential, as  well as a local incident on the border, which will create a new  information background. The appearance of these two indicators will  be another step up the escalation ladder," Melkonyan explained.

Speaking about possible scenarios for the development of events,  Melkonyan emphasized that there could be several of them. Among them,  a blitzkrieg, that is, an attempt to divide the territory of Armenia  into two parts, the so-called "salami" tactics (in parts - Ed.) and  an attempt to seize enclaves, primarily Tigranashen and the enclaves  in Tavush. "Nikol Pashinyan recognized Azerbaijani jurisdiction and  sovereignty over these territories. If Aliyev declares that Armenia  continues to occupy these lands, no one in the world will be able to  object to this, since Armenia itself calls them Azerbaijani. This  gives Azerbaijan every right to use force to restore its territorial  integrity," the expert continued. 

Touching upon Pashinyan's latest statements in this regard,  supporting the Azerbaijani narrative about Western Azerbaijan, the  expert emphasized that such statements are aimed at undermining the  political project called the Third Republic of Armenia. This implies  replacing the existing model with something new, a complete rejection  of historical memory and the formation of a new identity based on it.   "In 20 years, or maybe even sooner, we will face a generation that  will claim that there was no Genocide, that Artsakh never belonged to  us and that we occupied it. I will give you an example: a survey was  conducted in Japan about whether the US did the right thing by  dropping atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. All Japanese youth  answered in the affirmative, explaining that it was necessary because  they were militarists and they had to be stopped. Thus, if the  situation develops according to the same scenario, a similar future  awaits us," the orientalist explained.

In the current situation, according to Melkonyan, Armenia is on the  verge of a hot phase of the conflict, where not only weapons but also  allies, which Armenia does not have now, play a deterrent role. "In  the event of an escalation of the conflict, Russia will demonstrate  that as soon as the Armenian-Azerbaijani border became less protected  and the border guards left Syunik, a security vacuum arose. This can  serve as a basis for confirming the need for a Russian presence on  the territory to maintain the balance of power.  However, on the  other hand, Russia has found itself in a difficult situation,  effectively becoming a hostage to circumstances. It does not intend  to start a war against Azerbaijan, which creates certain challenges  for it.

Iran, in this context, has a better understanding of the processes  taking place in the region, as it pays more attention to them than  Russia. Despite its involvement in a conflict far from its borders,  Iran has several options. It can launch military exercises to  demonstrate its political will and the ability to intervene to  contain Azerbaijan. However, Turkey is the main deterrent for Iran  here. Thus, the summer 2021 agreement between Turkey and Azerbaijan,  known as the Shusha Declaration, is a defensive pact that provides  Turkey with security guarantees for Azerbaijan, thereby limiting  Iran's options. Iran can also apply through unofficial channels for  permission to conduct operations, both air and ground. However,  overall, it remains limited in its actions, and the likelihood of its  intervention in Syunik to hold the region is still low," Melkonyan  explained.

At the same time, the analyst recalled that Armenia's alliance with  Russia is frozen, and the country has not yet acquired new allies.  "No one can give a 100% guarantee; such guarantees do not exist.  Therefore, it is important to increase your deterrent potential. For  example, you can have an agreement with Russia, at the same time you  purchased weapons and signed an agreement with Iran, deployed an EU  mission - all this creates a system of deterrents," the expert  emphasized. 

However, according to Sergey Melkonyan, purchasing weapons is not  enough; it is necessary to integrate it into the general troop  command system, train personnel and conduct exercises. In this  regard, he recalled that after purchasing weapons from India, there  were no exercises using new weapons in Armenia. "I wrote about this:  if someone in Armenia is afraid to conduct exercises so as not to  upset Ankara and Baku, they can send personnel to India to learn how  to use these weapons in a similar landscape together with Indian  officers. But this did not happen," the expert continued.

At the same time, Melkonyan assured that any pretext is suitable for  Azerbaijan to start a war, be it the purchase of weapons by Armenia,  military exercises, or even the placement of the Artsakh flag by the  opposition in parliament. In this vein, he noted that often  information about the purchase of weapons by Armenia through  unofficial sources is disseminated by internal resources that are in  close contact with the Ministry of Defense. 

"In addition, the Indians themselves regularly publish information in  their press. For them, this is a new stage in the export of weapons,  and they enter the market through Armenia. Therefore, they actively  fuel interest in this topic, regularly sharing information with the  local press. In turn, resources associated with the Ministry of  Defense of Armenia casually publish news that new weapons have been  tested in India and are planning to export them. At the same time,  tests in other countries are not mentioned. The goal is clear:  to  create an image of Armenia as a country that ensures its security and  actively purchases weapons," the expert concluded.