Opinion: US to act against Iran and Russia by using Turkey and  Azerbaijan, at the cost of Armenia

ArmInfo.The processes around the South Caucasus will continue regardless of the outcome of  the US presidential elections. A similar opinion was expressed by diplomat Dzyunik Aghajanyan, the former Armenian Ambassador to the Netherlands and Indonesia, at the discussions hosted on the Genesis  Armenia platform.

The discussions were focused on the US elections  and their potential impact on the South Caucasus region and Armenia.   The diplomat is confident that the Democrats will not allow the  Republicans to win the elections, even if they have to resort to  falsifications. Aghajanyan added that the US is no longer hiding the  fact that they will not allow the project initiated after the Soviet  Union's collapse to be paused for a second, let alone change its  direction.

"The goal of the project is to fully subjugate the remaining parts of  the Soviet Union for the subsequent collapse of Russia. In other  words, the aim is to bring certain territories of Russia and its  resource base under the control of the Collective West. But the  problem is that after the Russia falls, it will not be difficult to  bring about the collapse of China as well," the diplomat believes.   In this regard, she noted that the South Caucasus, from the point of  view of the post-Soviet space, is a kind of junction, since it is  here that Central Asia and Europe intersect in terms of continental  communications.

"In addition, the process of destroying Iran can begin from our  region. This project has been implemented over the past 30 years and  has reached the point that we are seeing today. The Democrats cannot  allow it to be stopped," she noted.

Aghajanyan is convinced that it doesn't matter to Armenia who comes  to power in the US, whether it is Harris or Trump, as the West will  continue its actions against Iran regardless. "In other words, the  US, will use Turkey and Azerbaijan to carry out actions against our  neighbor Iran at our expense," the diplomat said.  When asked if the  modernized project <Turan - a big Turkish dream> can now be  considered as one of the key NATO projects, being implemented with  direct US participation, the diplomat gave an affirmative answer.  However, according to her, it is necessary to take into account the  fact that the so-called Great Turan project holds different  significance for different beneficiary states. "While the US sees  this project as a tool for the collapse of Russia and Iran, then for  Turkey it is a tool to fulfill its Ottoman aspirations. And  Azerbaijan is entering a dangerous stage in terms of its resources,  as  its oil resources are running out and it is no secret that the  significant portion of the gas it supplies to Europe comes from  Russian. In the future it may become a transit hub for distributing  gas between Russia and Central Asia. Additionally, Azerbaijan is  facing a pressing issue regarding water resources. It is no  coincidence that Azerbaijan is trying to seize Armenian water  sources," Aghajanyan noted, adding that the Armenian people may not  yet realize this, and individuals, lacking "reason" are making  judgments such as <why do we need mountains>, where snow remains for  half the year (statements by the Prime Minister of Armenia - Ed.),  not understanding that  this snow  plays a vital role in of Armenia's  security by ensuring its water resources, among other things. At the  same time, the diplomat noted that Azerbaijan, unlike Armenia, has a  clearly defined plan to secure its own water security, which is why  it is trying to control Armenian water sources.

"Unfortunately, Armenia has failed to properly assess its role in the  geopolitical situation. It is important to recognize that without a  connection to Turkey, Azerbaijan will also become a landlocked  country and rely heavily on Armenia and Georgia for exporting its  resources. Today's realities indicate that Artsakh was the screw that  maintained the geopolitical balance, and its removal made it possible  to implement these Western projects in the South Caucasus. The same  applies to Syunik; the role of this Armenian region should not be  overlooked," Aghajanyan believes.

According to her, if Armenia gives preference to NATO projects, it  will lose its statehood as the Homeland of Armenians. The country  will become a territory populated by Azerbaijanis and Turks, which is  the goal of the so-called "Western Azerbaijan" project. The diplomat  pointed out that Baku will use the pretext of returning so-called  refugees in the future to achieve this goal. In this vein, Aghajanyan  recalled that Azerbaijanis voluntarily left the territory of the  Armenian SSR before the Spitak earthquake of 1988, taking all their  belongings with them, selling their homes. Those who were unable to  do so received compensation in the amount of 72 million rubles from  the Armenian SSR, which wasn't the case for the Armenians expelled  from Azerbaijan. She also noted another reality, namely, living in a  particular territory does not imply having  property rights over that  territory. Aghajanyan is sure that these narratives were discussed by  the current leader of Armenia with the Azerbaijani side even before  coming to power in April 2018.  Otherwise they could have been  stopped immediately, which has not been done by the current Armenian  authorities. 

Touching upon the decrease in Russian presence on the borders with  Iran and Turkey, the diplomat suggested that the Armenian  authorities' ultimate goal is to establish a neutral state. According  to her, this in turn could serve as a strategy for Russia's  withdrawal from the South Caucasus. "Unless, of course, we witness a  provocation by military action that will put the Russian Federation  in a hopeless situation.  Moreover, the situation can develop  according to two scenarios: either Russia's involvement in military  actions within the framework of agreements with Armenia, including  along the CSTO line, which will lead to the opening of a second  front, or a refusal to engage in actions, which in turn will allow  the Armenian authorities to raise the issue of their withdrawal. In  fact, Russia will find itself in zugzwang. Therefore, Iran and Russia  are working to prevent any tensions, especially on the  Armenian-Azerbaijani border, to avoid the need for involvement in a  potential conflict," the diplomat believes.

However, the diplomat continued, stating that regardless of who wins  the US elections, America will continue its plans in the South  Caucasus.  At the same time, Aghajanyan believes that the  developments in Georgia, the position expressed by Iran in a form  that is not typical for its foreign policy, and the periodic  movements initiated by the opposition in Armenia after the 44-day war  have all contributed to the delay in the implementation of the West's  plans in the South Caucasus.

Nevertheless, she believes that the US will continue to implement its  plans in the South Caucasus, making certain adjustments along the  way. "I have concerns that in April-May there will be an attempt to  open a second front with another military provocation. Here the  question of the interests of Turkey and Azerbaijan arises, and the  issue of border delimitation comes to the fore. And yes, I do not  agree with the assertions that this process could have been hindered  by the CSTO's September proposal to introduce troops to the  Armenian-Azerbaijani border, which the Armenian authorities rejected.  I am sure that the CSTO could have easily deployed its troops on the  border with Azerbaijan and would not have hindered the delimitation  process in any way, and if it had been carried out in accordance with  international norms, then after the border had been appropriately  defined, they would have calmly moved to the new demarcation lines,"  Aghajanyan said. The diplomat is confident that such a course of  events, however, would have deprived the West and Azerbaijan of an  instrument of provocation against the Russian Federation and the  opportunity, if necessary, to open a second front in the South  Caucasus. She is sure that the Russian Federation agreed to withdraw  its troops from 17 points on the territory of Armenia to reduce the  possibility of being in zugzwang due to provocations from the West,  and the Armenian authorities took this step to make their borders  more vulnerable.

She is also convinced that the current authorities cannot refuse to  implement this US project, as they have certain obligations. However,  it has become obvious to the world that NATO is not the  military-political force they boasted about two years ago. The EU  does not have the financial and economic situation that it talked  about two years ago, and the West does not have the unshakable  influence in the world it claimed to have two years ago.  "Turkey and  Azerbaijan were initially part of this project, but today they have  changed their position, they are dragging out time to negotiate  better terms with Armenia for signing a peace treaty and to avoid  commitments to the West, particularly actions against Iran," the  ex-ambassador believes.  At the same time, she is confident that  Aliyev already understands that if he takes part in actions against  Iran, he could not only nullify the colossal achievements of recent  years, but also destroy Azerbaijan.  Therefore, he is trying to back  down.