India and Pakistan fuel Central Asian arms race with military sales  to Armenia, Azerbaijan

ArmInfo.A flurry of arms deliveries by South Asian rivals Pakistan and India to the warring Central Asian nations of Azerbaijan and Armenia is accelerating an arms race in the Caucasus, just a year after Baku's forces seized  back the disputed Nagorno- Karabakh region in a lightning assault, reads an article www.scmp.com. 

Despite post-war negotiations aimed at permanently ending three  decades of hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan, analysts fear  that the influx of Pakistani warplanes and Indian air defence systems  - alongside contributions from France - could herald a new wave of  conflict.

While a limited peace agreement between the governments in Yerevan  and Baku "is still likely, unresolved territorial and political  disputes maintain a high risk of unilateral Azeri military actions",  said Tinatin Japaridze, a Eurasia analyst at the New York-based  Eurasia Group political risk consultancy.

Any peace deal lacking clarity on border issues would "do little to  deter" Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev from escalating military  actions, she said, citing the potential forced opening of the  Zangezur corridor through Armenia's Syunik region that would grant  Azerbaijan vital access to its Nakhchivan exclave.

This would also enhance connectivity between East Asia and the Black  Sea via the Middle Corridor, a project spearheaded by Kazakhstan.

Last month, Beijing formally joined the Middle Corridor project,  committing to develop multimodal connectivity through its state-owned  China Railway Container Transport Corporation.

Azerbaijan's previous military successes were bolstered by tactical  advantages from combat drones supplied by Israel and Turkey during  its last major conflict with Armenia in 2020, which allowed it to  reclaim control over Nagorno-Karabakh.

Reports indicate that Pakistan has contributed to Azerbaijan's  military strategy by providing advisers skilled in mountain warfare,  expertise honed over decades of conflict with India in Kashmir.  Armenia has alleged that Pakistani special forces took part in the  fighting - a claim Islamabad has vehemently denied.

The defence partnership formed in 2021 between Pakistan, Azerbaijan  and Turkey prompted India to draw parallels between the conflicts in  Kashmir and Nagorno-Karabakh, and step up military sales to Armenia.

India also forged a soft-power alliance with Iran and Armenia last  year to safeguard its interests in the International North-South  Transport Corridor, which connects India to Russia through the  Persian Gulf and Armenia.  

After taking control of Nagorno-Karabakh in September last year -  reversing the loss of territory to Armenia in 1994 after both had  gained independence from the Soviet Union - Azerbaijan's military  landscape shifted further with the induction of JF-17 Thunder  multirole warplanes, developed collaboratively by Pakistan and China.

Analysts note that the acquisition of the jets in September 25  further tilted the military balance in Azerbaijan's favour, with  reports indicating thatPakistani defence contractor Pakistan  Aeronautical Complex and China's Chengdu Aircraft Industry  Corporation will supply eight advanced JF-17s as part of a US$1.6  billion deal, which also includes ammunition and pilot training.

The JF-17 Block III boasts cutting-edge capabilities such as stealth  features, advanced radars, and Chinese- made PL-15  beyond-visual-range missiles, granting Azerbaijan a technological  advantage over Armenia's Russian-made Su-30SM fighters.  Japaridze  described the JF-17 acquisition as a "strategic diplomatic move",  enhancing Azerbaijan's combat readiness and altering "the already  evolving security landscape" in the South Caucasus, while placing  Armenia "in a more vulnerable position" and pressuring it to improve  its air defence systems.

With Armenia's ties to Russia strained - particularly after Moscow's  non-intervention during the recent conflicts - Yerevan "will  increasingly look to India for military assistance to deter any  future aggression from its next-door neighbour", Japaridze said.

This shift could significantly reshape the regional power dynamics  yet again. Since the 2020 Nagorno- Karabakh war, Armenia has emerged  as India's largest overseas weapons customer, with US$600 million in  armaments delivered by March this year, including 155mm howitzers,  Pinaka multi-barrel rocket systems, and Zen anti-drone armaments.

Later this year, Armenia is reportedly set to receive 17 Akash-1S air  defence missile systems from India's Bharat Dynamics, part of a  US$720 million contract signed in 2022.

Additionally, France will supply Armenia with Ground Master-200  radars and Mistral missiles short-range air defence missiles under a  deal announced last October, following Azerbaijan's decisive actions  in Nagorno-Karabakh.

The JF-17 acquisitions are "counterbalancing recent Armenian  upgrades" to air defences and reflect a persistent arms race, said  Josef Gregory Mahoney, a professor of international relations at East  China Normal University.

"In absolute terms, both sides have been locked in an arms race for  some time," he said, further noting that "China is sensitive" to  India's expanding defence contracts in Central Asia, despite Beijing  maintaining good relations with both warring nations and staying  neutral in the conflict.

Mahoney also noted Beijing's sensitivity to any Western arms sales  "in so much as they generally come loaded" with various military  cooperation schemes.

China had "worked hard" through the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation  to "push American interests out of Central Asia", Mahoney said

"Expanding JF-17 sales could help," he said, adding that "it's  probably safe to say" Beijing aims to maintain an equilibrium in its  relations with Azerbaijan and Armenia "without leaning too far to one  side" or the other.