Why is Russia losing support in Armenia?

ArmInfo.Russia closely monitors the development of the internal political situation in Armenia, but does not interfere with it. This was stated on June 12 in Yerevan at the international round table "Foreign policy  priorities of Russia and Armenia in the post-Soviet space: CIS, EAEU and CSTO", organized by the Analytical Center for Strategic Research and Initiatives (ACSSI), said the professor and scientific director of the Institute of Military Economics and Strategy of the Higher School of Economics (HSE) Dmitry Trenin.

Regarding the importance of Armenia for Russian foreign policy, the  expert stated that a lot has changed in this area over the past 30  years, two, four, six years.

At the same time, Trenin, not wanting to dramatize the situation,  nevertheless stated with regret that the Russian idea of the world,  as a rule, lags behind the rapidly changing reality.

"We still live largely by old ideas. Russian interests remain in the  geopolitical sphere, and in the military, and in the strategic, and  in the geo-economic, and in the historical sphere, and in emotional  significance, given the very large Armenian diaspora in Russia.  However, the content of these interests changes significantly if we  compare the content of these interests in the imperial period, in the  Soviet period and in the current period, and especially in that short  period of time that occurred after the turning point of 2022," the  Russian expert is confident.

At the same time, the professor drew attention to the fact that in  Russia they believe that Armenia has the sovereign right to  independently determine its destiny. "This is Armenia's business.  Russia is not engaged in exporting color revolutions, and Putin  mainly fights such revolutions, but does not set fire to them. In  Russia, they understand the policy of the current leadership of  Armenia as rapprochement with the West and simultaneous distancing  from Russia in the political and military spheres, if they want to  preserve economic ties that are beneficial for Armenia and Russia,"  Trenin added.

At the same time, according to the expert, Russia is closely  monitoring the development of the internal political situation in  Armenia, but does not interfere in it. "As I said above, the makers  of color revolutions are sitting elsewhere. But, the question that is  being asked in Russia and perhaps by some people here is how far can  the deterioration of relations between Armenia and Russia go and what  can this deterioration lead to?

And the question that I ask myself, as a citizen of Russia, which is  so strong in the sense of economic presence in Armenia of historical  emotional ties, is so passive in the political space of Armenia, the  information space? Why does Russia, having such strong cards in its  hands, lose support within Armenia and this is a very serious  question for the Russian government and foreign policy," Trenin  believes.

Regarding the activities of the CSTO, the expert noted that it is a  poorly researched organization with an unclear Charter. "From the  very beginning of its creation, many perceived the CSTO as either a  version of the Warsaw Pact or a response to NATO, but in fact it is  not a very well-researched organization. This is by no means an  alliance, and not a military bloc, but a military-political  association, with not entirely clearly defined protocols on many  issues. This was a plus when the weather was good, but when the  weather became terrible, what was good became not so good.

Only Belarus is Russia's real ally in the CSTO; the other member  countries of the Organization adhere to a multi-vector position to  varying degrees.

There have always been problems in the CSTO, and in the situation  with the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, all the weaknesses that were  inherent in it and the uncertainties that once served to benefit the  existence of this association were revealed, and then, when the  situation became acute, they manifested themselves in in all its  glory," he said.

Having pointed out all the weaknesses of the Organization, Trenin, as  a positive point, drew attention to the fact that Russia does not  impose its point of view within the CSTO. According to him, the CSTO  countries take a neutralist position on the most important Ukrainian  issue for Russia. "None of the CSTO countries, including Belarus,  recognized the entry of Crimea into the Russian Federation. Russia,  of course, does not like this, but it does not impose it," Trenin  concluded.