Surrender of Tavush villages would make Armenia veritable enclave  encircled by Azerbaijan - Lemkin Institute for Genocide Prevention

ArmInfo.Below is a statement by the Lemkin Institute for Genocide Prevention. 

It has been one month since our most recent Red Flag Alert concerning  Azerbaijan's threats to the sovereign Republic of Armenia. We are now  issuing our third such RFA, given Azerbaijan's escalating rhetoric  and demands and its recent attacks on Armenia's Syunik and  Gegharkunik provinces. Previously we have issued numerous RFAs and  SOS Alerts for the Republic of Artsakh, which was occupied and  depopulated by Azerbaijan on September 19, 2023. Now, as anticipated  in our previous publications, the threat of genocide has extended to  the sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia itself.

Azerbaijan appears to be pursuing a strategy of gradual occupation of  Armenian sovereign territory. It is now seeking control over an  additional "eight villages under Armenian occupation" in the Tavush  Province and has dismissed Armenia's claims as mere "political  manipulations". Its goal is the control of the entirety of the  Armenian state and the unification of the Azerbaijani mainland with  Trkiye, which views Azerbaijan as part of an expansive Turkic  nation. By claiming control over strategic points across Armenia,  Azerbaijan further appears to be modeling its policy on the Israeli  settlements in Palestine. The danger to Armenia has become severe,  necessitating immediate and coordinated attention from the  international community. Urgent action is imperative to prevent  another instance of territorial occupation and genocide akin to what  occurred in Artsakh just six months ago.

These pressing developments in the Tavush Province appear to show a  new development in Azerbaijan's approach to claiming Armenian  territory: whereas for the past months Azerbaijan's priority was  claiming "Western Azerbaijan" and the "Zangezur corridor" in  Armenia's southern Syunik province, it is now targeting northern  territories, a shift likely influenced by Iran's firm commitment to  maintaining the border with Armenia in the south. However, it is  essential to recognize that the underlying tensions and risks still  persist and must not be ignored. Azerbaijan's stance on Syunik still  remains and the underlying risk factors are not eliminated,  especially after additional attacks on Tegh village on April 2.  Azerbaijan continues to promote international engagement in its  concept of "Western Azerbaijan" and actively pushes its agenda behind  the scenes, as seen by the "Western Azerbaijan is Historic Turkish  Land" conference in the Netherlands on 25 March 2024. Organized by  the "Western Azerbaijan Community", the conference centered around  the theme of "Western Azerbaijan is Historic Turkish Land." The  promotion of the concept of Western Azerbaijan has been actively  supported by the Azerbaijani government, with this narrative becoming  official state rhetoric, particularly amid "peace negotiations" with  Armenia. President Aliyev in one of his speeches insists: "Let us  work together on returning to Western Azerbaijan," referring to the  territory of the Republic of Armenia.

As of now, Azerbaijan has further intensified its territorial  demands. The Armenian government officially confirmed the ongoing  Azeri occupation of 31 of its villages. It's crucial to emphasize  that the 31 villages in question are on sovereign Armenian territory  and are distinct from the enclave-exclave element, which has been a  significant factor contributing to the delay in demarcating and  delimiting the border between the two countries. An exclave refers to  a portion of a territory that lacks geographical continuity with the  main body of the country and is entirely enclosed by the territory of  another state. An enclave is a part of a foreign state within another  country. So, the areas concerned would be exclaves of Azerbaijan or  Azerbaijani enclaves within Armenian territory.

The four non-exclave villages (highlighted in red), Baghanis Ayrum  (Baganis Ayrim), Nerkin Voskepar (Asagi ?skipara), Kheyrimly  (Xeyrimli), and Kizil Hajily (Qizilhacili) in the Tavush region, are  demanded by Azerbaijan immediately.

The issue of the other exclave villages (highlighted in blue),  Barxudarlu (Barxudarli), Sofulu (Sofulu), Verin Voskepar (Yuxari  ?skipara) located in the Tavush region, and Tigranashen (Karki) in  the Ararat Province, as Azerbaijani Deputy Prime Minister Shahin  Mustafayev stated, "will be resolved within the framework of the  border determination process".

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has said that Armenia could face a war  with Azerbaijan if it does not compromise and cede control over four  villages in the Armenian Tavush Province, which the Azeri Deputy  Prime minister referred to as "unquestionably part of Azerbaijan."  Alarmingly, we have seen military escalations at both Syunik's Tegh  and Gegharkunik's Kut villages on April 2. The Lemkin Institute  remains deeply troubled by the covert genocide unfolding as a result  of Azerbaijan's advancing territorial claims, enforced through the  continuous military conflict. The situation of the Tavush villages  serves as a stark illustration of such territorial claims. However,  these assertions and claims are put forth and persist without  transparent maps or legal substantiation.

Map of Armenian SSR (1931):

The exclaves/enclaves in question emerged in Armenia and Azerbaijan  in the 1940s during the Soviet era, but the legal basis for their  transfer from Armenia to Azerbaijan remains unclear, though decisions  made in Moscow and verbal justifications exist. The main rationale  was that the villages were transferred due to the majority of their  inhabitants being representatives of the neighboring republic  (Azerbaijan). However, Armenia contends that the transfers have no  legal basis. The territorial exchanges occurred without clear  regulation, often at the discretion of local party leaders rather  than the republic's leadership. Questions persist regarding the  decision-makers, the timing of enforcement, and the legal legitimacy  of the changes.  This skepticism is shared by Armenian experts and  the country's leadership, including Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan,  who emphasizes the need for clarification on the legal grounds for  the enclave boundaries. For compliance with international law,  countries must provide legal documents substantiating their  territorial claims to assert demands over specific territories. In  the absence of such documentation, the situation remains subject to  varying interpretations.

The territorial issue is not one-sided. Since the 1990's, Azerbaijan  has been occupying parts of the Armenian territory along the border  and an Armenian exclave Artsvashen (Bashkand), located in Qazax  District which borders Tavush and Gegharkunik Provinces. Nikol  Pashinyan raised the point of returning the formerly Azerbaijani  enclaves in exchange for formerly Armenian Artsvashen. He also  suggested that the border could be fixed by leaving all the enclaves  the way they are at this point, which would solve the problem of  Armenia's transportation to Georgia and Iran. However, there has been  no sign from the Azerbaijani side indicating the possibility of  returning the Artsvashen enclave to Armenia, nor does Azerbaijan view  the status quo as desirable.

Importantly, the villages of Tavush straddle the main road between  Yerevan and the Georgian border and are in proximity to a main  commercial artery that links trade with Georgia in the north and Iran  in the south. In the event of any disruption to those highways,  finding alternative routes would prove challenging due to Armenia's  rugged and mountainous terrain. If Azerbaijan were to seize critical  Armenian communication arteries, Armenia risks being cut off from the  important Armenian-Georgian Highway and the North-South gas pipeline.  The North-South gas pipeline, or North Caucasus-Transcaucasia Gas  Pipeline runs from Mozdok (Russia) through Tbilisi (Georgia) to  Yerevan (Armenia) and supplies the Republic of Armenia with natural  gas. As Armenia does not have any significant energy resources, it is  heavily dependent on energy coming from Russia via this pipeline. Any  potential move of the Azerbaijani positions closer to the road would  pose a substantial threat to the security and stability of vital  energy supplies and trade networks of Armenia.

In addition to vital communications, the four villages also play a  crucial role in Armenia's strategic defensive posture. Armenia  currently holds strategic heights and well-developed defensive lines  along this part of the border. Tavush stands out as the only region  with superior defensive positioning over Azerbaijan compared with  other border areas, which can explain Azerbaijan's strong desire to  obtain the villages, potentially facilitating the conquest of the  entire country.

Consequently, Azerbaijani military units could be deployed along five  sections of the Yerevan-Tbilisi highway which would render  maintenance of the interstate road impossible. This scenario would  disrupt crucial communication links between Armenia and Georgia,  placing the security of the gas pipeline and export routes in  jeopardy. In effect, Armenia would become a veritable enclave  encircled by Azerbaijan, compromising its territorial integrity and  security.

Azerbaijan's reluctance to seek a fair resolution to the territorial  dispute, coupled with the ambiguity surrounding the border  demarcation and ongoing occupation of sovereign Armenian territory,  underscores legitimate concerns for Armenians. It's crucial to note  that these villages are inhabited solely by Armenians, and  surrendering them to Azerbaijan means that Azerbaijani military units  would be positioned in close proximity to Armenian schools,  kindergartens, and government institutions. The safety and protection  of the inhabitants cannot be guaranteed under such circumstances,  especially combined with constant military aggression and threats  amid the backdrop of the recent genocide and ethnic expulsion of  Armenians from Artsakh.

Edits to Tigran Abrahamyan's map done by the Lemkin Institute:

Any cession of Nerqin and Verin Voskepar as per Azerbaijani demand,  would effectively isolate Voskepar village, turning it into an  Armenian exclave within Azerbaijan. This one-sided stance by  Azerbaijan threatens to result in the complete blockade of the  Armenian Tavush region, potentially leading to a humanitarian  catastrophe akin to what was witnessed during the 9-month blockade of  Artsakh. During Pashinyan's recent visit to Voskepar, the residents  raised concerns about the risk of a blockade and ethnic cleansing in  their communities, drawing parallels to the events in Artsakh. Taking  into account the traumatic past of the villagers, the memory of the  massacre during the infamous Soviet "Ring" Operation (1991), and the  world's inaction on the recent Artsakh genocide, the level of  distrust and fear of repetition of the horrors from the 1990s and  2023 is very reasonable.

The loss of control over these villages would be detrimental not only  considering the trauma of unrecognised and repeated genocide but also  strategically as it would trap Armenia in a dangerous defensive  disadvantage. This poses an existential threat to the Armenians  living close to the border and potentially threatens further  expansion to other Armenian regions.

As seen from the previous map, the looming danger posed to Lake Sevan  and even the capital city of Yerevan cannot be underestimated,  particularly in light of President Aliyev's ominous threats and the  close proximity of potentially occupied Azerbaijani villages. This is  especially worrying as there are clear indications from the Aliyev  regime that it plans to limit Armenia's control over significant  water resources, such as Lake Sevan, in the future. The recent  attacks on Kut, located near Lake Sevan in Gegharkunik Province on  April 2, serve as evidence of this agenda. Aliyev's threats reflect a  multifaceted agenda driven by strategic, geopolitical, economic, and  ideological motives, all geared toward bolstering Azerbaijan's  influence and asserting dominance in the region. These threats are  not mere conjecture but represent tangible risks that could  materialize swiftly if appropriate measures are not taken to  safeguard Armenia.  The potential loss of Lake Sevan would be  catastrophic for Armenia, as it plays a pivotal role in sustaining  the country's economy, environment, water supply, and cultural  heritage. Targeting Lake Sevan strategically aligns with Azerbaijan's  objectives to further weaken Armenia's position in the South Caucasus  and continues to ignore Armenia's sovereignty.

Furthermore, on March 24, the Azerbaijani Military Prosecutor's  Office issued warrants for 18 individuals from the village of  Baghanis Ayrum in the Tavush region, alleging their involvement in  what Azerbaijan claims was genocide during the war in the early  1990s. The Armenian government denies the existence of such  individuals or events in that location and Azerbaijan provided no  evidence. Claims that Armenians participated in a genocide in the  1990s have been used before without substantiation to take Armenians  hostage. Should Armenia capitulate and relinquish control of the  village, these 18 individuals will undoubtedly confront the same  grave circumstances endured by the unlawfully detained prisoners of  war, as well as Artsakh officials recently highlighted in a statement  by the Lemkin Institute. The genocidal policy pursued by Azerbaijan  intensifies hostility with each new provocation, setting the stage  for potential future atrocities. Threats against the collective  existence of the Republic of Armenia and its people have escalated  significantly as a result. It's vital to continue pushing for the  accountability of Azerbaijani crimes and to continue to safeguard  human rights and prevent future conflicts.

Clearly Azerbaijan has put forward demands that explicitly favor  Azerbaijani interests, rejecting any discussion on the withdrawal of  its military forces from the 31 villages previously occupied during  invasive attacks. These villages, integral parts of the recognized  sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia, were seized in  aggressive actions spanning from November 2021 to throughout 2023,  including aggressive military offensives in May 2022 and September  2022.

The Lemkin Institute highlights once again that genocide can be  expressed through a denial of indigenous territorial integrity and  sovereignty. In fact, this is a very common historical pattern of  genocide.  Azerbaijan is enforcing its territorial claims through the  constant threat of military aggression, raising red flags for a  gradual and covert genocide against Armenia. Azerbaijan has failed to  provide any assurances regarding the security or safety of the  Armenians in the villages it is claiming. Moreover, its rhetoric has  been alarmingly Armenophobic, characterized by clear genocidal  intent, as evidenced by Aliyev's assertions that Armenia should cease  to exist. As Azerbaijan presses forward with its expansionist agenda,  the Institute underscores the urgent need for international attention  and intervention. We must highlight that such genocidal regimes do  not stop without forceful pushback from the international community.

For more than two years, The Lemkin Institute has consistently  advised and advocated for the same measures and actions summarized in  our previous Red Flag Alert. Our recommendations remain unchanged,  reflecting the ongoing urgency and importance of the situation at  hand. Granting impunity to the Azerbaijani government and its  enabler, Trkiye, will only embolden them to perpetuate their  aggressive expansionist agenda. Western powers must support Armenia  in strengthening its sovereign borders and diplomatic position in the  region. This includes insisting on Armenian control of any corridors  through its territory and imposing sanctions on the Aliyev regime.  The United States, in particular, must end the waiver on Section 907  of the Freedom Support Act (1992) and hold Azerbaijan accountable for  its actions.

Moreover, global leaders must acknowledge their role in destabilizing  regional security and must now pressure Trkiye and Azerbaijan to  pursue genuine peace. The international community cannot afford to  ignore or legitimize genocide as a solution to conflicts perpetuated  by regimes like in Azerbaijan. Failure to act risks undermining the  rules-based order established in the aftermath of the Holocaust and  could usher in a new era of genocide with devastating consequences  globally.