Tuesday, March 5 2024 17:07

ArmInfo.The activities of the EU mission in Armenia, the visits of Armenian leaders to Paris, and French leaders to Yerevan, virtually in regular train mode, the build-up of military-political contacts with Greece are perceived in Russia as a direct challenge to the alliance and joining the "forces of evil".

Russian political scientist Sergei Markedonov shares a  similar opinion.  Thus, touching on the crisis in bilateral relations  between Russia and Armenia, the expert stated that there is no  shortage of negative forecasts, and even more so, mutual accusations.

At the same time, he stated that there are far fewer attempts to  systematically understand complex issues without personalizing and  reducing the entire analysis to repeated mantras about the "Georgian-  Ukrainization" of Armenia. At the same time, he drew attention to the  fact that attempts are being made in Georgia, albeit timidly, to  critically reassess strategic relations with the United States.   Speaking about the systemic foundations of the current crisis in  Armenian-Russian relations, Markedonov reminded that for many years  experts, politicians and diplomats considered Nagorno-Karabakh to be  the key to maintaining Russia's exclusive influence not only on  Yerevan and Baku, but also on the entire Transcaucasia. 

"It is already the fourth year that the situation has changed under  the influence of " key-keepers " of different status and origin.  Within Armenia itself, the de-Karabakhization of national-state  identity is gaining momentum. Azerbaijan is establishing a regional  order that is beneficial to it with the active support of Turkey.

Moscow is undergoing a serious foreign policy reprioritization due to  the transformation of a "special operation" into a "military one, as  Russian expert Ruslan Pukhov aptly put it." Which, of course, is  actively used by the West. And if in other parts of the world its  "collectivism" can be questioned, then in the post- Soviet space the  USA and the EU act in a single system. All this, taken together and  separately, puts Yerevan and Moscow in new conditions," the Russian  political scientist is convinced.  He noted that the matter is  complicated for Yerevan by the fact that Russian foreign policy  against the backdrop of the Ukrainian crisis, and especially after  the start of the Northern Military District, has become much more  holistic and value-oriented. Markedonov added that this turning point  has yet to be assessed impartially and with a "cool head."

"But the fact remains unchanged. The fight with the West is no longer  perceived as competitive cooperation, a format in which here we  cooperate, but there we are in confrontation, that is, in general we  are frenemies (sworn enemies - ed. note). Whether it's good or bad,  halftones are going away. The logic of inter-civilizational  confrontation dictates just such an algorithm.

In this context, the activities of the EU mission in Armenia, the  visits of Armenian leaders to Paris, and French leaders to Yerevan,  in fact, in regular train mode, the build-up of military-political  contacts with Greece (while there were good times, when Athens was  called the "Trojan horse" of the Russian Federation in NATO and in  the EU!) is perceived as a direct challenge to the alliance and  joining the "forces of evil." Let's add to this the crisis in  Yerevan's relations with the CSTO, attempts at geopolitical  "targeting" of Eurasian integration projects (here we work, but there  we "freeze" it) and the rhetoric of the Armenian senior officials.  And we have a really messed-up situation," the political scientist  noted.

At the same time, he pointed out the obvious presence of not so much  a political as an aesthetic rapprochement between Vladimir Putin and  Ilham Aliyev (and Recep Erdogan as well).  As the analyst continued,  "the cult of national sovereignty, harsh realism, rejection of  Western hegemony, due to human and generational reasons, the  difficult perception of Nikol Pashinyan becoming "one of us" for the  Kremlin, not to mention Armen Grigoryan or Ararat Mirzoyan.." In  conclusion, Markedonov pointed out that Yerevan has its own  counterarguments, which are not always about emotions.

"The same Pashinyan sincerely tried to please Moscow. But he is a  politician, and any politician, especially during a crisis, has a  desire to shift responsibility to someone else. Of course, it is  worth noting that a sense of proportion is not always his strong  point, and especially his closest associates' strong point.  The  Armenian-Russian crisis is predominantly systemic. But no one has  canceled the personal factor. And therefore the task is both simple  and complex at the same time. Having realized the new realities,  which are not very favorable for the allies, it is important to leave  aside emotions and take on the strict rationalization of bilateral  relations, otherwise new losses cannot be avoided," Markedonov  concluded.

Earlier Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov did not rule out a  review of the entire range of relations with Armenia, taking into  account "the ongoing course of the Armenian authorities towards  rapprochement with the West and deterioration of relations with  Moscow."