International Crisis Group Analyst: Armenia will have problems with  integration of Artsakh refugees if it does not find donors 

ArmInfo. Armenia Struggles to Cope with Exodus from Nagorno-Karabakh Armenia is having problems  integrating over 100,000 refugees who fled Nagorno-Karabakh when Azerbaijan took control of the enclave in September 2023. Olesya Vartanyan Senior Analyst in the South Caucasus at the International  Crisis Group said in her commentary.

Thus, the analyst who focuses on the conflict regions of Abkhazia,  Nagorno-Karabakh and South Ossetia, notes, that Yerevan has tried to  be generous, but it lacks funds and a long-term plan, leaving the  displaced people exposed and facing an uncertain future. 

The analyst recalls that  Azerbaijan's offensive on 19 September led  to the exodus of almost the entire population of Nagorno-Karabakh in  just a few days. 

" As Azerbaijani troops advanced, the de facto authorities, who had  governed the region with Armenia's support since seizing it from  Azerbaijan in the 1990s, quickly surrendered. Thus ended a long,  violent struggle for control of Nagorno-Karabakh that fuelled three  wars in as many decades and left a legacy of mass displacement of  both ethnic Armenians and Azerbaijanis. Over 100,000 people have had  to flee to Armenia since September 2023."

"Armenia has been as generous as its resources allow with  Nagorno-Karabakh's former residents.  The government registered  arriving refugees and helped them find shelter in population centres  rather than guiding them into refugee camps. All are eligible for  Armenian citizenship, of which some have already availed themselves.  Every adult has received a one-off payment of $250, followed by a  $185 monthly stipend - the minimum wage in Armenia where people on  average earned $668 per month in 2023 - to cover rent and basic  needs. In towns throughout the country, refugees have been getting by  on this support, stretching it by banding together to live with  several people under one roof. But the aid has strained the state  budget, and it is not clear how long Yerevan can sustain the  payments. It is a huge burden for a country of some three million  people, a quarter of whom were already living below the official  poverty line. At least one in every 30 people now living in Armenia  is a refugee from Nagorno-Karabakh - as many as the inhabitants of  the country's second-largest city, Gyumri. Unless the government gets  more funds to help it cover refugee-related costs, poverty and social  frictions look set to mount. "You will start seeing real problems in  three to four weeks if the government starts lacking money to cover  the bills", said an international expert who came to Armenia in the  wake of the crisis, warning of a surge in homelessness. Armenians'  solidarity with refugees has been remarkable to date, but fatigue  could kick in. Resentment may take root among locals if they see  refugees being helped into jobs and housing that others might  struggle to find, or bringing down wages, local officials and  international experts said. Inadequate support for refugees now could  lead to even costlier long-term social problems. "The local  government would have to hire more social workers", the head of an  international humanitarian organisation said. "The same is true for  police, doctors and teachers", she notes.

" The European Union pledged over EUR17 million ($18 million) in  budgetary support for Armenia's cash payments to refugees, but  disbursement of the funds has been delayed, seemingly by bureaucratic  hurdles. International and local organisations, including UN agencies  and the International Committee of the Red Cross, have also provided  humanitarian support, but they say they are having trouble raising  funds so that they can give more. In October 2023, the UN High  Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) estimated that the government would  need $97 million to cover refugees' essential needs through the end  of March. Together, 60 international and local organisations have  collected 47 per cent of this amount (which is separate from the EU's  pledge).  To bridge the gap, Armenia has taken out a loan from the  World Bank, and it is sounding out other international lenders as  well. Armenian diaspora organisations from Europe and the U.S. are  preparing to help the government organise a conference to raise  additional funds from states and private donors, but no date has yet  been set. To the extent Yerevan seeks funding for more than cash  assistance and humanitarian aid, however, it will need to make clear  what precisely it is asking donors to support. Since October, the  government has been working on coordinating several programs to  support longer-term integration, but it has announced no overall plan  and offered no cost estimate. Making Housing a Focus The government  says housing will be the main focus of its efforts. In September, as  Karabakh residents flowed into Armenia, it moved fast to register and  dispatch them to parts of the country where local authorities had  housing available.  But the vast majority of refugees gravitated  toward the capital, despite the higher rents, thinking it would be  easier to find work there. Almost half settled in Yerevan and another  30 per cent in the vicinity, where local authorities say there are  far more refugees than available housing. In the town of Masis, a  twenty-minute drive from the capital, many local officials had to  temporarily vacate their offices so that refugees could move in.  Kindergartens, libraries and schools have been repurposed as living  spaces. Locals estimate that 11,500 people - almost 10 per cent of  Nagorno- Karabakh's previous Armenian population - have arrived in  Masis, nearly doubling the number of residents. The former de facto  Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh flag now flies beside Armenia's over the  town hall", she stresses.

As the  Senior Analyst  notes "the entrance to the Lachin corridor,  the only road that connects Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia. Over 100,000  displaced Armenians fled this way last year. Now, it is barely used." 

"There are cheaper options in sparsely populated regions - though few  refugees want them.  Vardenis, which borders Azerbaijan, is cheapest  of all, with a village house ready to move into going for some  $5,000. But one reason the prices are low is that, over the past  three years, it has become the most dangerous area along the border,  with frequent skirmishes between the Armenian and Azerbaijani  militaries. Many residents have already left, and many more are eager  to sell their homes and relocate. Among people from Nagorno-Karabakh,  still suffering from the trauma of forced displacement, Vardenis is  hardly a draw. "Refugees would get off the buses halfway when they  learned the government was sending them to Vardenis", said a town  official.  "No one wanted to live at gunpoint again". Some 800  Karabakh Armenians have arrived in the region, only a tenth of the  number local officials had made plans for. "These are the poorest,  who had no choice", a humanitarian worker said. 

"In January, Yerevan began a special support project offering to  reimburse companies paying refugee salaries for a certain period, in  the hope that the firms would extend this arrangement into longer  regular contracts. Over 5,000 Karabakh Armenians started working in  their first six months in Armenia, official data shows. "The main  question is how many will retain these jobs", an Armenian businessman  said. "I bet the numbers will be small". Some locals organised job  fairs for Karabakh Armenians. At one of these events, held at  Yerevan's main university, company representatives met with a group  of job seekers, predominantly men - a scene consistent with the  gender employment gap among this population. 

"But it will be a long road for all the displaced people who want  jobs to find them. At best, it will take an estimated ten to twenty  years, according to an independent economists' report for the  government that Crisis Group has seen. That could undo some of the  progress Armenia has made in tackling joblessness as the economy has  grown in the past five years, raising unemployment from its current  level of 11 per cent to 15-17 per cent. The above-referenced report  calls for an ambitious plan to create up to 25,000 new jobs and  reskill up to 4,000 people in sectors such as manufacturing,  agriculture, construction and retail. Without these measures, it  suggests, thousands of displaced families may be compelled to flee  once again. (Russia is a major destination for Armenian workers who  send remittances home and over 6,400 people from Karabakh have  already moved there, Armenian officials say.) Some foreign  development experts agree on the need to think big. They have  recommended to the government tax breaks and special projects to  attract job-generating investments in construction and  infrastructure. A Western development agency representative suggested  that Armenian diaspora groups in the West could act as liaisons to  get major U.S. and European construction and other companies to  establish offices in those Armenian regions hosting significant  refugee populations. In the past, successful Armenian emigres have  invested in Armenia, helping generate jobs and provide communities an  economic boost, especially in places distant from the capital. The  government should look for ways to collaborate again with the  diaspora in support of the new wave of refugees. "

" The new arrivals include 30,000 children and 18,000 people aged  over 65, according to the UNHCR. There are also several thousand  disabled people. Men with missing limbs, from war injuries and  landmine explosions, are a not-infrequent sight in areas where  Karabakh refugees have moved." "The Need for a Plan Armenia absorbed  a wave of refugees from the Karabakh fighting in 2020, but this  challenge is far bigger. As it struggles to pull together the strands  of an integration plan, Yerevan is under pressure - not only from  Karabakh Armenians, who wonder what the future holds for them, but  also from the citizenry and potential donors. A fully articulated  plan must address housing and employment, make full partners of local  authorities who will be implementing its directives, and consider the  impact that it will have on the locales where it will be put into  practice. In some places, bolstering service providers such as  schools, police and hospitals can help meet the needs of recently  arrived refugees, but well-designed programs would seek to boost  support to entire communities - not just new arrivals, Meanwhile,  refugees, grappling with their recent loss, are still coming to grips  with a new and challenging reality,"  Vartanyan notes.