Wednesday, February 14 2024 17:49

ArmInfo.The possibility of a new war in the South Caucasus again ceases to be a speculative prospect. And it  becomes clearer why Ilham Aliyev was in such a hurry to hold early presidential elections. A well-known expert on the Caucasus and Central Asia, political scientist Arkady Dubnov, shares this opinion.

In his Telegram channel, Dubnov noted that the recent incident on the  Armenian-Azerbaijani border with the death of Armenian servicemen is  an extremely serious escalation, which occurs against the background  of tightening Baku's requirements for the conditions for concluding a  peace treaty with Yerevan.  "After the military operation carried out  in September last year, the result of which was the complete transfer  of Nagorno-Karabakh to the control of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev  demanded that the Constitution of Armenia be rewritten, excluding any  mention of Karabakh from it. Yerevan has already partially agreed  with such demands; recently, an entire section "The Issue of  Nagorno-Karabakh" in all languages disappeared from the official page  of the Armenian Foreign Ministry. Nevertheless, Baku continues to put  forward new demands on Yerevan, threatening to use force if they are  not met," the specialist states.  He noted that the modality of such  a policy towards neighbors is now becoming the norm in the  post-Soviet space, which the world witnessed in February 2022: A  couple of days ago, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, in an  interview with the British The Telegraph, outlined Aliyev's ultimatum  as follows: "he said, that if he sees any sign of Armenia re-arming,  he will launch a military action against Armenia, he reaffirmed his  demand for a corridor through the territory of Armenia to  Nakhichevan, he ruled out retreating of his troops from the territory  inside Armenia, from strategic heights, saying that he needs these  areas so that he can keep an eye on Armenian intentions". According  to Pashinyan, "Azerbaijan is taking a step back from the agreements  reached." Pashinyan replied that "having a strong and combat-ready  army is the sovereign right of any independent state." However, Baku  considers the rearmament of the Armenian army dangerous, which could  threaten Azerbaijan with an attempt at revenge from Yerevan.

"Whether this is true or not, Baku's desire to condition a peace  treaty with Armenia on a ban on strengthening its armed forces looks  absurd. Post-war Armenia is not post-war Nazi Germany or defeated  imperial Japan, which were subject to similar restrictions..", the  political scientist believes.