Russian political scientist on key issues on US South Caucasus agenda 

ArmInfo. It is Russia, Turkey and Iran rather than Armenia, Azerbaijan or Georgia, that are on the USA's "foreign policy radar," Russian political scientist Sergey Markedonov said.  

He recalled that US State Department representative Vedant Patel,  during a regular briefing, again stated that "the United States is  interested in completing the process of normalization of  Armenian-Azerbaijani relations."

In this vein, the political scientist wondered what the States were  looking for in the distant Caucasus, taking into account the fact  that they do not border the countries of the region, the influence of  the Caucasian diasporas is not so great when compared with Israeli or  Irish factors.

"A commonplace in the works of American experts on Eurasia is the  thesis that the South Caucasus is important for Washington, but this  importance is not at all critical. The American elite, unlike the  Russian elite, looks at the Transcaucasus through different  "spectacles". Their main objects are not Azerbaijan, "Armenia and  Georgia, and Russia, Turkey and Iran. In recent years, American  foreign policy optics in the Caucasus direction have begun to include  China," he noted.

Markedonov believes that Russia is feared for its territorial  expansion. According to him, American theorists and practitioners  tend to consider all ethnic conflicts in the territory of the former  USSR in this context. "What are Abkhazians or Ossetians if Moscow is  ultimately the beneficiary. For the time being, they put up with the  role of the Russian Federation in the Karabakh settlement, since  Russia did not recognize the NKR and did not even plan hypothetically  referendums on its inclusion in "greater Russia." 2022 is all  changed, and now the States, as in the Ukrainian direction, are  "restraining" Russia in the Caucasus. They are afraid of  "revisionism," the expert believes.

At the same time, he is confident that Turkey is a different story: a  strategic ally, not an opponent, but obstinate and capricious, and  more prone to "revisions" than Russia.

"As a consequence, there is a balancing act between "discipline" (at  least with the help of the "Armenian issue") and encouraging regional  ambitions as a counterbalance to Russia and Iran.

Iran, like Russia, is considered by Washington as an adversary. And  in this regard, the States are extremely interested in strengthening  the Azerbaijani-Israeli bond and developing relations with Baku, no  matter how difficult they may be," the political scientist believes.

Speaking about the role of China, Markedonov noted that the Chinese  "One Belt and One Road" initiative is seen by the States as a  competitive project in Eurasia as a whole, not only in the  Transcaucasus.

"But "here and now" Washington fears, first of all, the strengthening  of the economic influence of the PRC, especially in Georgia, which is  fraught with geopolitical consequences. Let's add to this the energy  factor and the desire to search for "alternatives" for supplying  hydrocarbons to EU allies, consolidation in the Black Sea and the  Caspian Sea, the Caucasus-Middle East link plus selective protection  of "human rights" and the puzzle is coming together," the political  scientist noted.

He expressed confidence that building ties with Georgia without its  formal membership in NATO (a model of a special alliance similar to  relations with South Korea or Israel), consolidating the role of the  main moderator in resolving the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict,  "containing" Russia, Iran and China, optimizing relations with  problematic ally Turkey are the key items on the American agenda in  the region. "It can be liked or provoke attacks of anger, but above  all, it must be adequately understood," Markedonov concludes.