Monday, December 25 2023 09:35

ArmInfo. Political  "de-Karabakhization" is in progress in Armenia now, Russian expert  Sergey Markedonov believes. 

The expert noted that at the end of the past year, the  Nagorno-Karabakh topic again appeared on the media field. In  particular, Samvel Shahramanyan, the last of the leaders of the  unrecognized NKR, during a meeting with the "leaders" of republican  structures holding their positions "on a voluntary basis," said that  no document on the self-liquidation of Artsakh exists. The political  scientist added that this thesis was also voiced by Vladimir  Grigoryan, Shakhramanyan's adviser, in his interview with Azatutyun  radio. "The Republic of Artsakh, the government and all other bodies  of the republic will continue their activities after 2024," he  concluded.

"So what are we seeing? The birth of a new geopolitical sensation or  an attempt by the leadership of the abolished unrecognized republic  to capitalize the Karabakh problem inside Armenia? Let's start with  the fact that the question of the continued existence of the NKR  after the "day and a half war" of the special operation was raised  earlier, but was almost on the information radars, that is not  visible.

In October 2023, during a protest at the Yerevan permanent mission of  Nagorno-Karabakh, Shahramanyan said: "The republic created by the  people cannot be dissolved by any document." According to him, the  paper on the self-dissolution of the NKR, signed by himself, was  adopted only for the sake of stopping hostilities and preserving the  lives of military and civilians," Markedonov noted.

In this vein, the expert asked whether this means that we are on the  verge of a new military conflict? "After all, if there was no  self-dissolution of the NKR, then there remain (at least purely  theoretically) the problems of clarifying its status. Let us note  that the military method has been the fastest and most effective  means of achieving goals for years. Let's not rush to conclusions. In  Shahramanyan's plan, of course , are not interested in Baku. But  official Yerevan is not happy with it either. Now the Armenian  leadership is increasingly talking about promoting the "Crossroads of  the World" project, which is not possible if Armenia and Azerbaijan  are sliding into a new war. Under the conditions of the new status  quo, there are no obvious interested in the "neo-Karabakh project"  and among external players," the political scientist added.

Markedonov believes that the de-Armenization of Nagorno-Karabakh and  its return to Azerbaijani control is a strong national trauma. Not  only for the Karabakh Armenians, but also for the Yerevan residents,  the Armenians of the Diaspora.

"In this context, the formation of any "cabinet in exile" is  perceived as carrying out "political therapy". It will not be in  Yerevan, it will appear in San Francisco or Glendale. In different  years there were governments of exiles of the Republic of Serbian  Krajina, Tibet or Tamil Ilam. With approximately the same chances of  ultimate success as Shahramanyan and Co. have today. However, you  can't forbid anyone from recalling the famous prayer "Next year - in  restored Jerusalem!" on occasion," he noted.

However, he continued, in addition to psychology, there are also  understandable political considerations.  "Times change. And as Carl  Clausewitz taught us, "even the final, decisive act of the entire war  as a whole cannot be looked at as something absolute, for the  defeated country often sees in it only a passing evil that can be  corrected in the future by subsequent political relations." ". Today  in Armenia there is a political "de-Karabakhization". But not  everyone agrees with this trend, as in Serbia - with  "decosovization". Even if the current situation is clear to a  first-grader. And therefore, attempts to capitalize on this topic  within the Armenian politicum will take place, I like this either  causes undisguised irritation to someone. Moreover, Samvel  Shahramanyan has a very difficult fate. After all, they will still  say about him: "This is the one who signed:."