ArmInfo. Yesterday was full of several important events, one of which - the presidential election in Azerbaijan - has been commented on by expert in Turkic studies Varuzhan Geghamyan.
He recalled that early presidential elections in Azerbaijan will be held on February 7, 2024, although they were originally planned for 2025. "This circumstance came as a surprise to many, but what is the reason and what do we get from this? I'll immediately note that, in my opinion, there are several reasons. They have both internal and external contexts and are closely interconnected. First of all, Aliyev must be able to capitalize on the victory in Artsakh while it is still very fresh in public memory.
Taking into account the fact that many socio-economic and political problems in Azerbaijan have not been resolved in any way, therefore, in order to avoid as much public resistance and tension as possible, which always accompanies any elections, even in the most dictatorial country, for Aliyev new elections and the inevitable victory in them will guarantee power for another 7 years. In these elections, thanks to his victory in Artsakh, Aliyev is unlikely to need election fraud, since there is high public support, and the opposition's issues have been resolved and are being resolved," the political scientist noted.
He added that early elections are an opportunity to hold them as soon as possible in the occupied territory of Artsakh, thereby once again "legitimizing" the "Azerbaijani government" in Artsakh. "This will allow us to say that the occupied population of Artsakh elected a new government in the person of Aliyev. After the elections, Aliyev, being re-elected, will have the opportunity to engage in the process of transfer of power after him from a strong position, legitimately and without haste (about the same thing Erdogan is doing now after the last elections). In addition, this will give Aliyev the opportunity to prepare for a new war against Armenia with "the mandate of the people" without unnecessary tension. I must note that this preparation is in full swing," Geghamyan noted.
The political scientist pointed out that the situation in Ukraine is moving towards an inevitable freeze or even complete completion. However, the struggle between the different poles involved does not end. "Therefore, there is a high probability that the South Caucasus will become the main theater of conflict in the coming months, which will lead to an increase in the volume of external interventions. In these conditions, it is important for Aliyev to strengthen his position as quickly as possible through new elections, which will also limit the possible intervention or influence of external players (for example, Russia, USA, Iran) for elections in their own interests. In 2024, new elections will be held in Russia (March) and the USA (November). They are important for the South Caucasus, too. Therefore, Aliyev needs to resolve his own issues in advance , so that he can fully prepare for various kinds of developments and work with the elites of both countries to obtain a pro-Azerbaijani policy. In short, 2024 will be a decisive year for Armenia and the region. Aliyev understands this. And, of course, he is preparing. What about us?" the political scientist concluded.