Lemkin Institute for Genocide Prevention warns of potential  Azerbaijani invasion of Armenia

ArmInfo. The Lemkin Institute for Genocide Prevention is issuing a Red Flag Alert for the  Republic of Azerbaijan in the Republic of Armenia, due to the 

alarming potential for an invasion of Armenia by Azerbaijan in the  coming days and weeks. Azerbaijan has long coveted Armenia's southern  Syunik Province, which has been discussed in the recent past as the  site of an Azerbaijani-controlled "Zangezur Corridor" to Nakhichevan.  Considering recent political developments in the region-including the  Azerbaijani invasion of Artsakh on September 19, 2023 and the ensuing  seizure of the territory-and well-established genocidal Armenophobia  endemic in Trkiye and Azerbaijan, an Azerbaijani invasion runs a  dangerously high risk of devolving into genocide. We remind the world  that genocide is not only expressed through mass murder. As was the  case during the recent seizure of Artsakh/Nagorno-Karabakh in  September of 2023, genocide can also be expressed through a pattern  of massacre, atrocity, and forced displacement from indigenous  territory when the ideology behind these actions is aimed at  destroying an identity in whole or in part.

Although Azerbaijani officials have recently distanced themselves  from the plan for a "Zangezur Corridor" through Syunik, there are  several reasons to remain concerned. After Azerbaijan's aggressive  war against the Armenian territory of Artsakh-which led to the brutal  murder of Armenian civilians and the forced displacement of almost  its entire Armenian population-Azerbaijan has publicly set its sights  on Armenia's southernmost Syunik Province, which it claims as its own  territory, calling it "Western Azerbaijan." On October 6, Armenia's  Ambassador-designate to the EU, Tigran Balayan, warned that Armenia  expected Azerbaijan to invade "within weeks." US Secretary of State  Anthony Blinken had warned a group of US lawmakers of similar threats  on October 5. In an October 7 telephone call with European Council  President Charles Michel, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev  specifically threatened to invade Armenia to "claim" eight  unspecified provinces in Armenia that he said were "occupied" and  required "liberation." He noted that if "new conflicts'' were to  arise in the region, it would be the fault of French President  Emmanuel Macron, whom Aliyev has accused of "neocolonialism" in  supporting Armenia's security. Since 2020, the Aliyev regime has  already taken 150 m2 of territory in the sovereign Republic of  Armenia in clear violation of both international law and the  ceasefire statement which ended the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War of  2020.

Not only would Azerbaijan's aggression against Armenia constitute an  invasion and seizure of sovereign territory recognized under  international law as indisputably Armenian territory, but also an  Azerbaijani invasion of Armenia would realize the long-held goal  shared by Azerbaijan and its close ally, Trkiye, of creating a land  bridge between both states. It would deprive Armenia of its  southernmost Syunik Province, and it could render Armenia a rump  state almost entirely surrounded by powerful historical foes.

Armenia's Syunik Province is of strategic interest to Azerbaijan not  only because its seizure would finally realize the pan-Turkic dream  that fuelled the Armenian Genocide of 1915-1923, but also because it  is the planned site for a potentially lucrative and strategically  important land corridor between Europe and Central Asia that  Azerbaijan and Trkiye together would like to control. This so-called  "Zangezur Corridor" would connect Azerbaijan to its exclave  Nakhichevan, which shares a border with Trkiye. Reports surrounding  the corridor suggest that it would be controlled extraterritorially  by Azerbaijan and/or Trkiye.  Furthermore, from the Azerbaijani  perspective, the corridor would have the added benefit of cutting  Armenia off from its southern neighbor, Iran, with which Armenia has  important economic ties. Russia supports this corridor, as do Western  powers and Israel, due to a wide array of factors and national  interests; the central question is which country or countries will  control it.

Furthermore, given Azerbaijan's recent success in seizing  Nagorno-Karabakh and the current political crisis embroiling the  Middle East, the present geopolitical circumstances present an  opportunity for Trkiye to pursue its own self-interests amid a  weakened Armenia. Trkiye, which has been facilitating Azerbaijani  acts of aggression against Armenia for over thirty years, is actively  pursuing territorial and diplomatic expansion in the Middle East,  South Caucasus, and Central Asia. Its relationship with Azerbaijan is  of immense strategic interest, forming an integral component of a  pan-Turkic belt that Trkiye hopes to develop from its eastern border  through the Caucasus into Central Asia; the Azerbaijani invasion and  seizure of Artsakh/ Nagorno-Karabakh constitutes a key act in pursuit  of this goal.

Most alarmingly, Azerbaijan has begun to amass its military forces  along its borders with Armenia, including in its Nakhichevan enclave  (which borders Trkiye). Last week Azerbaijan also began a series of  joint military exercises with Trkiye, much as it did in the weeks  before invading Artsakh/Nagorno- Karabakh in September 2020. These  red flags suggest that Azerbaijan is readying itself for a possible  invasion while also seeking to intimidate Armenia into ceding land  and corridor rights to avoid invasion.

As tensions have simmered since the First Nagorno-Karabakh War,  Trkiye and Azerbaijan have made their desire to rid the South  Caucasus of Armenia and Armenians disturbingly clear-as well as their  willingness to commit genocide in order to do so, culminating in acts  of genocidal intent aimed at Armenians. Preceding Azerbaijan's  September 19 seizure of the remaining Armenian-controlled regions of  Artsakh, it imposed a crippling, nine-month blockade of the Lachin  Corridor that cut Artsakh off from the rest of the world, creating  increasingly dire humanitarian conditions in which Artsakh-Armenians  languished without access to food, medicine, infant formula or other  goods necessary for survival; the Azerbaijani government also  systematically severed gas, electric, and telecommunications services  during the blockade. The Azerbaijani government expressly ignored two  orders from the International Court of Justice to re-open the  corridor before invading Nagorno-Karabakh on September 19, 2023,  justifying the invasion as an "anti-terror operation." Since then,  Azerbaijan has begun a campaign of "re-integration" in  Nagorno-Karabakh which, despite claims of compliance with human  rights standards, includes confiscating Armenian passports of the few  Armenians who are still in the territory, destroying Armenian homes  and cultural institutions, resettling Azerbaijanis in Armenian homes,  separating Armenian families, and monitoring communications between  Armenians who remain in Nagorno-Karabakh.

These policies have been underpinned and supported by a longstanding  tradition of genocidal Armenophobia-an ideology which has been  nurtured by the Azerbaijani government and utilized to not only  justify the elimination of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh and the  erasure of Armenian identity from the territory, but discredit  Armenian claims to territorial sovereignty in its entirety.  Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly claimed that  "present-day Armenia is our land" and has sought to present  indigenous Armenian presence in the Caucasus as broadly illegitimate,  possibly preceding an attempt to chip away and seize additional  chunks of Armenian-inhabited territory.

In light of ongoing hostility from Azerbaijan and Trkiye, Armenia  currently remains in a very difficult position and must secure its  sovereignty in every possible way to avoid losing more land to  regimes actively seeking to seize its internationally-recognized  territory. The Lemkin Institute believes that it is critical for the  Armenian state to retain control over any corridor that runs through  its territory. While the Russian government has demonstrated  increasing support for both Azerbaijani and Turkish regional  ambitions - many analysts believe that the September 19 invasion of  Artsakh was only possible with a greenlight from Russia - Armenia has  been forced to rely more and more on the West. Unfortunately, Western  regimes have been playing both sides of the conflict, and they have  failed to offer any concrete security guarantees or military funding  to Armenia as Trkiye and Israel continue to heavily arm Azerbaijan,  giving the latter a powerful military advantage. If Azerbaijan were  to invade Armenia, there is fear that the European Union and the  United States, preoccupied with ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and  Israel/Palestine, would fail to offer necessary military aid to  protect Armenia and Armenians: the lukewarm response of European and  American officials to Azerbaijan's genocidal ethnic cleansing  campaign in September has demonstrated that Western powers are  willing to sacrifice Armenian interests, even up to the point of  genocide, in order to secure their strategic relationships with  NATO-member Trkiye and Israel as well as to ensure Western access to  any trade corridor connecting Trkiye with Central Asia, often viewed  as a key source for oil, gas, and mineral resources.

To avoid a catastrophic invasion of Armenia by Azerbaijan, which  would considerably threaten the peace and stability in the region for  decades to come, it is imperative that Armenia and its allies do  everything in their power to ensure that an invasion is unpalatable  to Azerbaijan. Western powers, which have encouraged Armenia to  distance itself from the Russian Federation (the state that has  traditionally protected Armenia from Turkish and Azerbaijani  aggression and expansionism-whom critics allege failed to defend  Armenia from invasion as a member of the CSTO), must not fail to act  while another genocide has begun brewing in the South Caucasus.  Granting such a level of impunity to the genocidal atrocities  committed by the Azerbaijani government and enabled by the Turkish  state will only embolden them to continue their destabilizing agenda  of aggression and expansionism in the South Caucasus, the Middle  East, and Central Asia.

Accordingly Western powers need to help Armenia strengthen its  sovereign borders and its diplomatic position in the region. They can  do this by insisting on Armenian control of any corridor running  through its territory. They can further assist Armenia in securing  its sovereignty by forcing Azerbaijan to withdraw its army from the  border regions, by imposing sanctions on the Aliyev family, and by  suspending Azerbaijan's current visa and energy agreements with the  EU, as suggested by a European Parliament resolution on October 5.  France's decision to increase weapons sales to Armenia could be  helpful, but only if there is coordinated action and material support  in the event of an invasion by Azerbaijan. The United States, for its  part, can enforce Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act (1992),  which excludes Azerbaijan from participation in economic programs  created by the act. Section 907 has been waived by US presidents each  year since 2002 but, given that Aliyev has proven to be a brutal  genocidaire, the waivers must come to a permanent end.

Western leaders must also take responsibility for destabilizing  regional security in the South Caucasus in pursuit of self-interest,  which has actively served to undercut Armenia's geopolitical  security. This can only be achieved by placing pressure on NATO  member Trkiye and its ally Azerbaijan to pursue real peace and to  cease using the illusion of "peace negotiations" as a way to threaten  Armenia with dismemberment.  Furthermore, Western nations should pull  back on any "all or nothing" ultimatums to Armenia that may exist to  pressure Armenia to completely cut ties with Russia, especially given  Russia's increasingly friendly economic and strategic relationships  with Azerbaijan and Trkiye. Armenia must be able to use its  sovereignty to explore new economic relationships with partners that  will enable it to pursue an independent foreign policy without  becoming embroiled in a new front of the proxy conflict between  Russia and the West.

If the Western world continues to ignore genocide and effectively  embrace it as a legitimate solution to intractable conflicts created  and perpetuated by regimes like Azerbaijan, it will not only declare  an end to the rules-based order of the post-Holocaust world; it will  usher in an age of genocide as (if not more) destructive than the one  that characterized the last mad rush for control of territory and  resources across the globe.