Thursday, September 28 2023 16:11

ArmInfo.Ethnic Armenians are venting their frustration at the EU's failed attempts to mediate  in the growing humanitarian crisis over the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh - as more than half of the territory's residents now appear to have fled, fearing ethnic cleansing by Azerbaijan's army, Politico writes.

The source notes that Baku's lightning advance into Nagorno-Karabakh  last week - and the subsequent refugee exodus - is a stinging  diplomatic failure for the EU, which had staked significant political  capital in trying to style itself as a peacemaker. 

"European Council President Charles Michel became a prominent  personality in the region, and EU observers were deployed to observe  the Armenia-Azerbaijan frontier. Ultimately, however, the EU now  looks unlikely to turn to sanctions against Azerbaijan as it is  unwilling to rock relations with a nation that it calls a "crucial"  partner on natural gas supply," the article reads.

At the same time, it is stated that "On Wednesday morning, Armenian  officials told POLITICO that 50,200 people - amounting to more than  half of the estimated 100,000 total population - had already crossed  the internationally recognized border into Armenia, packing what few  possessions they could carry into cars, trucks and buses. With  increasing chaos on the ground, however, many more could have arrived  without being recorded."

"Everyone is saying they care about us, but where are they?" he  asked, sitting in the leafy garden of a hotel serving as an emergency  shelter.  "Where is France? Where is America? Where is Charles  Michel?", writes the source.  "Brussels' foray into the South  Caucasus came amid efforts to reduce the waning influence of Russia  after the invasion of Ukraine. Moscow stationed peacekeepers in the  region but was unwilling or unable to enforce the status quo,  sparking clashes and cease- fire violations.

Despite hosting talks designed to head off exactly the kind of  catastrophe now taking place, both Michel and Commission President  Ursula von der Leyen have appeared wrong-footed by the crisis. Von  der Leyen, who described Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev as one of  Europe's more "reliable, trustworthy" partners has not commented.   Michel made an optimistic emergency phone call to Aliyev, asking for  Karabakh Armenians to be well treated, but there doesn't appear to be  any kind of European leverage or willingness to hit Aliyev with  penalties," writes the author of the article.

`The EU is now losing Armenians' faith': Even though this  humanitarian crisis is blowing up in Europe's immediate neighborhood,  it has pledged less aid than the U.S.: The bloc has promised to send  EUR 5 million, with Washington giving $11.5 million.

"While Russia is seen as having betrayed Armenians given its stated  commitments to protect them, the EU is now losing Armenians' faith,"  said Karena Avedissian, a senior analyst at Armenia's Regional Center  for Democracy and Security. "People like Michel so often talk about  Western values while doing nothing to uphold them, and Brussels  pushed its own vision to resolve the conflict without addressing  Armenians' fears about being forced to flee.

Armenian and Azerbaijani officials were in Brussels on Tuesday for  discussions, to which the Council president dispatched his diplomatic  advisers, Simon Mordue and Magdalena Grono. "President Michel joined  the participants for a brief exchange," a statement from the EU side  reads.

Meanwhile, more than 60 MEPs are calling for sanctions on Azerbaijan  - with the European Parliament having previously backed motions  condemning the country and supporting restrictions on its top  officials over alleged human rights abuses," the article notes.

Sanctions looks unlikely: Given Europe's diplomatic fixation with  securing supplies of gas from Azerbaijan, however, Baku's officials  are pretty confident they are not going to face much backlash from  the EU. Sanctions need to be signed off by member countries, not  MEPs.

At a briefing in Brussels ahead of the negotiations with Armenian  officials on Tuesday, Azerbaijan's foreign policy chief Hikmet  Hajiyev said that his government did not expect sanctions from the EU  and hit out at "emotional" European lawmakers calling for punitive  action.

"We don't see such a risk because it's irrational," said Hajiyev,  adding that he doesn't believe there's a clear "rationale" behind  calls for sanctions or a suspension of the bloc's gas deal with Baku.  "Such a narrative is not helpful and is rather counterproductive to  advance the agenda of the peace in the region," Hajiyev continued.  "On the contrary, it will cause further and further fragmentation and  division of the region."

In closed-door talks between countries, there is little appetite for  slapping sanctions on Azerbaijan, according to two diplomats with  direct knowledge of negotiations who were granted anonymity to speak  candidly.

Only Lithuania has suggested that all options be on the table, the  diplomats said, while Hungary showed the most skepticism, and others  like Romania and Austria also had reservations.

"It's quite stuck at the moment. there's no unanimity in this case,"  one of the diplomats said, adding that one reason could be the  strength of countries' relationships with Azerbaijan.

Hungary in particular "is a tricky one," said the second diplomat,  arguing that the worst- case scenario would be to ask for sanctions  and have Budapest block talks for weeks as it has done during Russia  sanctions discussions.

According to Tom de Waal, a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe and an  expert on the conflict, the gas deal was "a prime example" of mixed  messaging from the EU. "People like Charles Michel and in the  External Action Service were focused on conflict resolution," he  said, "while von der Leyen praised Aliyev and didn't once mention the  conflict or Armenians."

"Azerbaijan knew that it could use both negotiation and force and  could exploit both European and Russian weaknesses," he added,  calling for the EU to begin a "strategic audit on its Azerbaijan  policy."

Asked on Wednesday by POLITICO about why von der Leyen is yet to make  a public pronouncement, a spokesperson for the Commission insisted  "the EU position is clear" and that she had made her views clear by  sharing a post condemning the violence from the bloc's top diplomat  Josep Borrell on social media.

For former security guard Spartak though, gathering together what  remains of his possessions and working out what to do next, talk is  cheap. "Nobody cares about us.  We'll go wherever people will help us  - we just have to find somewhere," the article reads.