Thursday, January 14 2021 13:19

ArmInfo.The challenges that the Russian market had to face in 2020 showed that the domestic economy has a sufficient “margin of safety”. Konstantin Tserazov, an independent expert, economist, ex-deputy head of global markets at Troika Dialog, spoke about the landmark events of 2020 and forecasts for 2021 in our interview.

According to the expert, March was the most difficult period, when in the middle of the month, on the panic of investors, the Moscow Exchange index collapsed by 35% since the beginning of the year. However, the world economy quickly adapted to new conditions - thanks to incentives from central banks, liquidity came to the markets, and purchases began, notes Konstantin Tserazov. At the end of 2020, the Moscow Exchange index, according to analysts from Otkritie Bank, updated its maximum, soaring to 3,289 points, and grew by 8%, while the RTS index fell by 10.4% due to the weakening of the ruble.

The real challenge for the Russian market was the spring fall of oil below $16. However, by the end of the year, oil won back part of the losses, rising to $50 per barrel of Brent. Against this background, the most affected in 2020 were the transport and oil and gas sectors, which, according to analysts of Otkritie FC Bank, lost 19% and 16%, respectively, says Konstantin Tserazov. Among the leaders were papers of metallurgists, consumer and financial sectors, which rose by 48%, 44% and 22% respectively.

 Tserazov Konstantin Vladimirovich: “In 2021, optimism will prevail in the markets, but we must be prepared for corrections, which can be quite deep.”

The year was also marked by the weakening of the ruble - according to the analytical materials of the Otkritie FC Bank, the ruble lost 20% against the dollar and 32% against the euro by the end of the year. Nevertheless, the Bank of Russia continued to ease its monetary policy, cutting the rate by 2 percentage points. in 2020, to a historic low of 4.25%. Following the rate, the profitability of deposits also decreased, which increased the attractiveness of the stock market for the population - over the year, the number of private investors on the Moscow Exchange exceeded 8 million people.

Agreeing with the opinion of Otkritie Bank analysts about the onset of a new economic cycle, Konstantin Tserazov draws the attention of investors to geopolitical risks and the danger of a new wave of COVID-19. “In 2021, optimism will prevail in the markets, however, the market now looks overheated, and serious corrections should be expected in the first half of 2021,” the expert concludes.