ArmInfo. After Baku, Ankara and Yerevan jointly complete the "withdrawal of Russia from the region", as recently announced by RA Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Baku and Ankara will absorb Armenia. Political observer of Politeconomy Research Institute, political scientist Benamin Matevosyan, shares a similar opinion.
The expert was interested in what Pashinyan is preparing the Armenian people for. He drew attention to the fact that Nikol Pashinyan, during his press conference on July 25, quoted the wording from the reports of the US State Department on the Karabakh issue and the statements of the French co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group to local parliamentarians, as well as the statement of Russian President Vladimir Putin on December 17, 2020, about "Karabakh belongs to Azerbaijan", thereby trying to solve 2 problems at the same time: in particular, to state that even before the Prague meeting in October 2022, and even before the 2020 war, "the whole world recognized Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan"; and to lay responsibility for the blockade of the Kashatagh (Lachin) corridor on Russia, which "back in 2020 and before that" recognized Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, but under these conditions agreed to send peacekeepers to Artsakh, but "for some unknown reason today refuses to fulfill its obligations and open the corridor."
At the same time, Matevosyan announced that Pashinyan is acting very delicately, saying "half- truths".
"As for the statements of the President of the Russian Federation, and the statements of Western officials and organizations, and in order to understand this, it is enough to read the fuller statement of the Russian leader of December 17, 2020.
"Russia's position is as follows: Azerbaijan should return the seven holding areas around Nagorno-Karabakh, while the status of Karabakh should remain unchanged - "the status quo should be fixed." Vladimir Putin noted that from the international legal point of view, Karabakh is part of Azerbaijan, but in reality the situation is more complicated. "Here each side has its own truth," the president said. "We need to deal with this calmly," Putin said.
Matevosyan recalled that it was precisely in order to "calmly sort out" the problem and the status of Karabakh that Russian peacekeepers entered the region, and the document dated November 9, 2020 did not say a word about the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, which gave a huge "window of opportunity for the Armenian side."
"Moreover, last week even Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev spoke out in support of this interpretation of the processes, saying the following: "None of the international actors who now say that "Karabakh is Azerbaijan" has never said this before, never. When it came to Azerbaijan, they said that we should accept the right to self-determination along with territorial integrity. Now the situation is different...
The status of Artsakh has changed not because of the 2020 war, but because of the personal decision of Nikol Pashinyan to recognize Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan in the autumn of 2022 in Prague. This is what gave Azerbaijan a political justification for the blockade of the corridor and the start of the ethnic cleansing of Artsakh," added the political scientist.
Matevosyan stated that the statement of October 6, 2022 put an end to discussions on the status of Karabakh (there is nothing more to "quietly deal with"), which also changed the status of the Russian peacekeepers, making their military presence not on the "disputed territory without status", but on the territories recognized by both sides of the conflict as the territory of Azerbaijan.
"However, the press conference was not held for this idea, it was held in order for Pashinyan to read his opening speech, the essence of which is that "Armenia is looking for security guarantees for itself in the region." Which is a statement of several simple truths: the West, as an extra- regional entity, is not ready to give any military guarantees for the security and territorial integrity of Armenia; this security guarantee should be Armenia's integration into a "regional temporary military-political union with Turkey and Azerbaijan."
You ask why "temporary"? For the reason that after Baku, Ankara and Yerevan jointly complete the "withdrawal of Russia from the region", as recently announced by Pashinyan, Baku and Ankara will absorb Armenia.
Nikol Pashinyan knows that this is exactly what is happening, everything else is noise and a smoke screen, like today's whole press conference itself," Matevosyan concluded.