Nikol Pashinyan believes in possibility of achieving lasting peace  with Azerbaijan, but does not rule out new escalation

ArmInfo. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan believes in the possibility of achieving a  lasting peace with Azerbaijan. He stated this in an interview with Agence France-Presse in response to a question whether he believes in a lasting peace with Azerbaijan.

"If I didn't believe, there would be no point in taking part in the  negotiations at all, but believing does not mean that the result is  guaranteed, because, understandably, it depends not only on me,  naturally, it depends also on the positions of the President of  Azerbaijan, let alone that we are not generally negotiating in a  vacuum. There is an international situation, there is a geopolitical  situation, there is a humanitarian situation, there are various human  factors, which may emerge at any point and time. Everything  influences the process, but of course, the greatest impact on the  process have the direct negotiators, I mean, the President of  Azerbaijan and myself," Pashinyan stressed.  To clarify what he can  personally do in negotiations with President Aliyev to guarantee the  dignity of the Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh, Pashinyan  pointed to the importance of the conditions.

"You know, generally the conditions are very important. If we just  step aside from the substance of the negotiations, because for an  impartial observer of what's happening in the negotiations room, one  might think that in principle, everything is fine, that there is  really nothing extraordinary happening, but then, after that, we need  to come back and observe the actions and statements that are being  made. The most important thing, which in my opinion impedes the  progress of the talks, is Azerbaijan's continued aggressive rhetoric,  hate speech towards Armenians and anything that is Armenian, hate  actions, and of course, the policy of revenge in relation to  Armenians of Nagorno Karabakh and obviously, the policy of ethnic  cleansing."

As an illustrative example, he suggested looking at the current  situation in Nagorno- Karabakh. The prime minister pointed to the  humanitarian crisis in Artsakh, the lack of essentials.

"Look at the situation that we now have in Nagorno Karabakh. We have  a humanitarian crisis there. When we say humanitarian crisis, for  many people it may seem like a political term or a headline for news,  but let's delve into its substance. It means, for instance, absence  of essential goods, there is no vegetable oil in Nagorno Karabakh, no  sugar, there are no hygiene supplies, there is no butter, there  aren't several types of foodstuff. The people of Nagorno Karabakh are  hard working people of course, and in this agricultural season some  products are produced, but because of the absence of fuel, the  delivery of the goods to the potential consumers is almost  impossible. In Karabakh, there is a certain stock of grain, but  because of the absence of fuel, it cannot be delivered to the flour  mills, if in any way it is possible to deliver it to the flour mills,  then it cannot be delivered to the bread bakeries because of absence  of fuel, and if somehow it reaches the bakeries, it is impossible to  bake the bread at industrial volumes because of the absence of  electricity and fuel, but if it is somehow possible to bake it, then  it is impossible to deliver it to the shops, and if somehow it is  possible to deliver to the shops, people have transport limitations  for reaching the shop to buy the bread, and if somehow they reach the  shop to buy the bread, they do not have the required financial means  to purchase the bread because they are deprived of employment.

If all these layers, all these difficulties are placed upon one  individual, all that burden becomes obvious and understandable. Under  these circumstances, it is clear that in the Republic of Armenia and  also of course in Nagorno Karabakh, pessimism is growing day by day,  which, however, does not change our policy in any way, because we are  convinced that the method of resolving issues through negotiations  has no alternative. And on the other hand, if issues are not resolved  through negotiations, in the public these negotiations may be  perceived as just waste of time, or creating the impression in the  media that something is being done. These are all risks that can  directly or indirectly affect the process," he said.

To clarify what his red lines are in this process, Pashinyan stated,  "We have said this a number of times: Armenia's territorial  integrity, sovereignty, and the rights and security of the Armenians  of Nagorno Karabakh. By the way, there is an important point to be  made:  rights and security on this level are terms, for people they  are just terms. It's very important that the terms be reflected in a  way that people will be able to use, apply them, to have the rights  and the security that would enable them to live, to self-realize in  their environment, in their family, to develop within that  environment.

It's also very important to record that our position is that the  issue of rights and security of the people of Nagorno Karabakh should  be addressed in a dialogue, talks and discussions with the  participation of the people of Nagorno Karabakh. We call that  Baku-Stepanakert dialogue, but given the disproportion of strength  between Nagorno Karabakh and Azerbaijan, we think that if we leave  Stepanakert and Baku face to face, Baku will have the opportunity of  either turning that agenda into oblivion, or have a monologue and not  a dialogue. And that's why our perception is that that dialogue  should take place in the context of an international mechanism, where  the international community will be the witness. Armenia's role here  is difficult because Armenia's interest in this process is perceived  and interpreted by Azerbaijan as so-called encroachment or aspiration  upon Azerbaijan's territorial integrity. Because of that perception  talks in this format have not turned out to be constructive, and this  has been demonstrated by the whole history of negotiations."

To a remark, that Armenia is seeking certain international mechanisms  that will guarantee the security and rights of the Armenian  population of Karabakh. And what international mechanisms he means,  Pashinyan assured:

"You know, these are working-level issues that depend not only on our  perceptions. That's why I wouldn't like to limit the future  conversations by outlining any particular vision, or that would make  limitations for us in those conversations. Our main issue is that for  that conversation, that dialogue to take place and to be genuine, to  have an actual conversation, because it is through conversation that  its is possible to overcome the lack of confidence, hate, and even  tensions, or even to better understand one another.

To the comment does he think that Azerbaijan is threatening the  sovereignty and territorial integrity of Armenia, particularly  considering the situation in Syunik, also the fact that the city of  Jermuk came under fire last year and does he consider this a threat  from Azerbaijan to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of  Armenia, and what does he think, can there be war again, Pashinyan  expressed his conviction that in general, so long as a peace treaty  has not been signed, and such a treaty has not been ratified by the  parliaments of the two countries, of course, war is very likely. 

"And generally, anywhere on the planet, where there is conflict  situation that has not been resolved by a treaty, has not been  addressed anywhere anytime, war may erupt. We need to know this.  There are different scales of probability, but we should take this as  a rule.  Azerbaijan's obvious aggressive rhetoric, hate speech is  added to this, the current geopolitical situation is added to this,  where essentially the world order that some time ago was presumed to  somehow exist, we now see it doesn't exist by and large. This is also  contributed by the breaching of the military balance between Armenia  and Azerbaijan, and so on and so forth.

And of course new escalations, new wars are always likely, which does  not mean that it is going to happen, but it also does not mean that  it is not going to happen. By the way, every day, literally,  violations of the ceasefire regime occur on the border between  Armenia and Azerbaijan. During my term as Prime Minister, in more  than five years, there might have been a maximum of three days during  which the ceasefire wasn't violated. Can you imagine this? During the  five years with the most inflated assessments we may have not more  than three days without ceasefire regime violation. One of these days  was November 11, 2020, so if we exclude this, two days remain, and  one questionable," he noted.