Any little negligence in Caucasus will make it place for invasion and rivalry among different countries - Ali Akbar Velayati

ArmInfo. Ali Akbar Velayati, a senior adviser to Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei on international affairs, underlined the need for the vigilance of all parties, including Iran and Russia, regarding NATO's plots and the future of the Caucasus region.

In an article for the Tasnim news agency, Velayati has offered an analysis of the latest situation in the region and the international system, touching on issues ranging from recent moves by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Turkey and the Republic of Azerbaijan in the region to the north of Iran and south of Russia.

The most difficult task, however, was done in Syria, where they were able to halt Turkey's expansionism with the assistance of Russia. Due to various failures, the Turkish government has constantly changed its tactics and methods in recent years. At the beginning of the aggression against Syria, it approached the Muslim Brotherhood and Qatar and sought to overthrow the Syrian government with their assistance, but it failed.

Turkish officials delivered a speech against the Zionist regime in the World Economic Forum Davos, calling it a "child-killing" regime, but because they were unsuccessful in achieving any of their specified objectives, they changed their method and rolled out a red carpet for the Zionist regime's president during his trip (to Turkey). They also changed the modus operandi in the domestic policy in order to remain in power and win the recent elections. An example of this was the move by the Justice and Development Party to get closer to the Nationalist Movement Party headed by Devlet Bah‡eli.

On the other hand in February 2022, the Russians invaded Ukraine, arguing that NATO leaders and Westerners strived every day, and mostly successfully, to expand NATO to east, despite their firm promises to Putin. Initial measures taken about Ukraine joining NATO had made the Russian seriously worried.  They sternly warned the Americans and the West about such events, saying if (the West) takes such a measure, Ukraine will be invaded by Russia.

But the main issue is that the hypocritical Americans stood against the Russians with cost being paid by the Europeans and now the economic, political, military and social situation of the Europeans is by far worse than those in any other region in the world.  Ultimately, the voices of conservative individuals like (Emmanuel Macron) were raised against the US and, certainly, other European countries will also not allow the US to exploit them longer. Our prediction is that Russia will defeat Ukraine even if it means sustaining more losses.

Now, in the midst of the Ukraine war, we are witnessing another style of change in policies of Turkey that introduced itself as being close to Russia. In recent days, it was reported that Turkey has agreed to approve Sweden's NATO accession. It also handed some of Azov forces to Ukraine. As these change in stances occurs, in recent month the issue of Turkey being linked to the Republic of Azerbaijan has also been raised, which Iran opposes. Those opposed to this say that if there is going to be a facilitation of the ties in the connection between the Republic of Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan, there is no need for occupation of a wide area of Armenian territory by neighbors. All of these facilities such as transfer of gas, electricity current, transit route, etc can be made available easily without violating the sovereignty of Armenia and this is something common among countries.

Many observers were surprised as to why the two governments of Azerbaijan and Turkey are insisting so much on the possibility of rising tensions among related parties. Gradually, the realities became known and the understanding of experts is that the intention behind these extensive links that connect Nakhchivan to the Republic of Azerbaijan is that, first, they would divide Armenia into two parts and, second, they disconnect Iran and Armenia, severing a link that dates back to the era of the Achaemenid and Parthian Empires.  Third, it would limit Iran's connection to outside and from then on, we will be neighbor to 14 countries, instead of 15, and the Islamic Republic of Iran's free connection with North Caucasus, Russia and the European continent will be disrupted. Any change in regional borders will cause long-term tensions. And the most worrying thing would be the presence of alien countries in the border (regions).

Iran, China and Russia created a powerful and stable triangle in Asia and, undoubtedly, despite the US' failed desires in the new world map, the Americans and the West cannot ignore Iran as the main power in the West Asia region and a country that is influential in international developments. Today, the relations between Russia and the US have also changed strategically and at least, contrary to George H. W. Bush's words, the world will be multipolar in the future.

Our strong guess is that the issue of establishment of connection between Istanbul and Xinxiang, more than signifying the formation of an imaginary world named pan-Turkism, given the scope of Turkey's ties with NATO, will lead to creation of a strip that will surround Iran from the north and Russia from the south and spread NATO's influence in the region. The opening of the Nakhchivan path, instead of developing trade and cooperation, may cause NATO and some of its members that play a role in this conflict, to pave the way for the more serious and active presence of all facilities and accesses in the north of Iran and south of Russia.

Unfortunately, the serious and complex problem of clashes in Ukraine caused some negligence on the Caucasus region and the three plus three formula that was initially accepted by the six countries of Russia, Iran, Turkey, Georgia, Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan, was trampled upon. And now the South Caucasus region is a place for the interference and illegal and corruptive presence of the European Union, France, the US and the Zionist regime and if this trend continues, this very sensitive region will practically turn into a threat to the security of the entire region.

Our Russian friends to be careful and know that any little negligence in the Caucasus will make it a place for invasion and rivalry among different countries and ill-intending parties that would attack the interests of Russia and the Islamic Republic of Iran. If they neglect, the Americans and their agents who could not do anything of importance in Ukraine, will increase tension-creating factors in the very sensitive South Caucasus region and undermine the security of the entire region.

Undoubtedly, the Westerners that face the problem of supplying energy today, will not overlook the facilities and resources of this region and the regions around it. They have their greedy eye on the region and will not spare any effort to encroach on it. Fortunately, the smart leaders of Russia are aware that they have sanctioned buying Russian oil and gas and are seeking access to the energy resources of the Caspian and the Caucasus and we all should safeguard it.  Moreover, the influence and aggregated presence of the enemies of Iran and Russia, including the US, Europe and the Zionist regime, in this sensitive region will endanger future interests of other regional nations as well.

Any neglect and oversimplification of the problems and complicated issues that have taken place in this region will cause them not to limit (their intentions) to the South Caucasus region, but also spread their influence to the North Caucasus and, most importantly, the Caspian Sea and the countries around it, and this should be a red line of Iran and Russia. The Caspian Sea only belongs to the countries bordering it and no one (else) will by any means allowed to gain a foothold in this very important sea.

Some regional countries that are NATO members and the changes in their stances were discussed earlier, on the assumption of the strengthening of their ties with NATO, have been (trying to implement the agenda) of NATO and, above all, the US, (in the region) and in the future may create problems and obstacles for Russia, Iran and China as the trio allies that form the largest set of power in Asia, and, of course, this will face the strategic alertness of these countries' leaders.

Meanwhile, there has been a significant and regrettable development in recent days, that is the issuance of a joint statement by Russia and the countries of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council. We say to our Russian friends not to be na‹ve about this. The issue of Iranian islands, including Abu Musa, the Greater Tunb, and the Lesser Tunb, is crystal clear according to international rules. Here are several historical reasons that clarify this matter (the fact that the trio islands belong to Iran):

During the reign of Nasser al-Din Shah, when Mirza Ali Asghar Khan Atabak was the Prime Minister (of Iran), upon the request of the Iranian government, the Ministry of Defense of the United Kingdom sent a map of the region as an official response to Iran's request, on which Abu Musa, the Greater Tunb, and the Lesser Tunb were depicted as part of Iran's territory. This serves as strong evidence of Iran's sovereignty over these islands.

After the United Kingdom raised its flag on Abu Musa, Mirza Ali Asghar Khan Atabak ordered it to be lowered and the Iranian flag to be reinstalled.

In 1971, when the second Pahlavi (Mohammad Reza) relinquished Iran's rights to Bahrain and committed a major betrayal, with the mediation of the UK, the aforementioned situation was returned to Iran. In this regard, David Owen, the British Foreign Secretary, played a crucial role.

After the Islamic Revolution in Iran, particularly after the imposed war, the UAE has seized every opportunity to promote this unjust claim. Now, some of our friends, like Russia, have fallen into the same pit that China fell into not long ago. They believe that by endorsing such baseless claims, they will have good economic relations with the UAE in the future. It seems that Russia's action is also a result of certain naiveties that have been observed in some Russians, especially in areas where there is a lack of deep familiarity and understanding between Russia and those countries.

The full article is available here:  https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2023/07/12/2924987/velayati- stresses-vigilance-regarding-nato-plot-future-of-caucasus