Political scientist: In the near future, three numbers will become  the subject of complex dramatic reflections in Armenian national  narratives

ArmInfo.In the near future, three numbers (one eight and two sixes) will become the subject of  complex dramatic reflections in Armenian national narratives. According to Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Nagorno-Karabakh is included in the area of territorially integral Azerbaijan - 86.6 thousand square km. This is how the Russian political scientist Sergei Markedonov commented on the statements of the Prime Minister  of the Republic of Armenia at a press conference.

"Now the easiest thing would be to accuse this politician of national  betrayal (which, in fact, is happening in real time "here and now"),  as well as start building conspiracy theories about who and when  started the process of "surrendering Artsakh". It is much more  difficult to try to present a systematic analysis of the  "de-Karabakhization" of post-Soviet Armenia. Within the framework of  one comment, this, of course, is impossible. But it is possible and  necessary to outline the key points," the expert noted.  At the same  time, he stated that Pashinyan did not indicate any sensation on the  penultimate Monday of the outgoing spring. Markedonov recalled that  the thesis on mutual recognition of the territorial integrity of  Armenia and Azerbaijan within the borders of the Armenian and  Azerbaijani SSR (which implies Baku's sovereignty over the Karabakh  land) has been publicly voiced by both the prime minister and his  associates for at least a year.

"However, one didn't have to be Cassandra to predict this trend after  the second Karabakh war lost by Armenia. November 2020 became the  breaking point of the former status quo. And Yerevan was not (and is  not) the beneficiary of the new regional order.

You can blame Russia as much as you want for the lack of assistance  to its ally (and such criticism is not unfounded, to be honest), but  no one else has unambiguously taken the side of Armenia. Tweets and  public actions do not count, as well as exotic initiatives of  congressmen on the "recognition of democratic Artsakh". This means  that Pashinyan (and any other name in his place) does not have  external support for the implementation of the "Armenian  reconquista". We are just stating the facts," the Russian political  scientist stressed.

The expert also pointed to the fact that inside Armenia the idea of  "surrendering Artsakh" is unpopular, as evidenced by all opinion  polls.

"However, the sociology of numbers cannot accurately convey the gap  between the declaration "Karabakh is ours" and the readiness to  defend it at the risk of life. In 2020-2022 there were several waves  of protests.  However, they did not become massive, and  Nagorno-Karabakh leaders (Vazgen Manukyan and Robert Kocharyan) who  formed the opposition front, did not wake up Armenia, as it was in  1988-1989. The people in the mass are tired of the conflict. Should  they be scolded for this? And who has the right to do this?  People  sometimes get tired of wars so that they are ready for a "obscene  peace". There are plenty of examples of this. The same way,  the  Serbs and Montenegrins demonstrated their "humility" recently? And  Pashinyan could just be a kind of second edition of Duvalier, but he  held early elections and won them.  "With the result that allowed him  to form a homogeneous government. Let's say there were violations and  administrative resources. But where are the uprisings and public  discontent? The army front did not even pull on an operetta coup.  Pashinyan, of course, is not Bulgakov's Colonel Turbin. But he could  exclaim like that hero: "The people are not with us, gentlemen!"  "Although in his election program-2021 all the points about  supporting the self-determination of Nagorno-Karabakh were present.  But, as we have already said, there is a considerable distance  between the declaration and implementation," he said.

In this regard, he stated that within Armenia there is nothing  comparable to the rise of 1988-1989 on the wave of "miatsum", however  fatigue from the Karabakh burden is obvious. The political scientist  added that it may be pleasant or nauseating, but the facts are what  they are. Externally, Yerevan also does not have strong support for  the "reconquista".

"Will Moscow's restraint be the beginning of the decline of the  Russian presence in the Caucasus? Let's not rush to answer. The loss  of Kars, Ardagan or Artvin did not lead to the withdrawal of Soviet  Russia (and then the USSR) from the Caucasus region. But let's be  honest, national traumas and phobias were formed not excluded, and  the Karabakh story, it is possible, can become something similar.  Note that all decisions regarding Nagorno-Karabakh are difficult.  They will not and simply cannot be unambiguous, just as the decisions  on Strasbourg, Burgenland, Lvov and Vilna were not one-dimensional  and unambiguous " he concluded.