ArmInfo.Now, at this stage, for Turkey, it is important that Armenia unilaterally accepts all the maximalist demands of Azerbaijan regarding the settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh. Academician of the National Academy of Sciences of Armenia, Turkologist Ruben Safrastyan expressed a similar opinion in a conversation with ArmInfo correspondent, speaking about the problems of the unhurried and even slow progress of the Armenian-Turkish negotiations on the normalization of relations, which began on January 14, 2022 in Moscow.
According to the Turkologist, the unhurried negotiation process is proceeding according to the scenario outlined in advance by Turkey, and its purpose for the time being is limited to promises, the implementation of which can only begin if Armenia "behaves well" and is ready to make concessions. In the context of the current aggravation of the international situation and the unstable balance of power in the region, Turkey is trying to convince Armenia that it is Turkey that is becoming the main actor and the leading power in the South Caucasus, the requirements of which should be met. And since Russia is seriously preoccupied with the problem of Ukraine and a tough confrontation with NATO, Turkey is slowly advancing its interests, which perfectly fit the claims of Ankara's closest strategic ally, Azerbaijan. So far, Turkey is only luring Armenia into its nets, promising to open the borders in order to push the latter to make concessions, the main of which is the solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue exclusively according to the scenario of Azerbaijan.
All other issues, which are already directly related to the regulation of bilateral relations, go into the background or in the second place, since Turkey does not see the need for urgent measures to normalize relations with weak Armenia, either for political or even more so for economic reasons. Safrastyan, meanwhile, noted that from the point of view of bilateral relations, Turkey certainly has its own demands on Armenia. First of all, this is a matter of neutralizing the political instrument of pressure in the hands of Armenia, in connection with the further development of the process of international recognition of the Armenian Genocide, that is, it is about stopping this process by official Yerevan, and, as a maximum, about agreeing to the idea of establishing a mixed Armenian-Turkish commission of historians to establish the "truth about the Armenian Genocide" which has been voiced by Ankara for a long time. Thus, Ankara insists on the final withdrawal of this issue from the political and international platform to the field of scientific research.
Another issue that undoubtedly worries Turkey for many years is the opportunity to put all the dots on the "i" in the issue of official recognition by Armenia of the provisions of the Treaty of Kars. And despite the fact that today's borders between Armenia and Turkey are determined precisely by the provisions of the Treaty of Kars, however, Ankara desires to hear recognition of it at the highest official level of independent Armenia in order to forever "discourage" Armenia to restore territories within its historical borders. According to the political scientist, to these three demands, Turkey will certainly add the so-called Zangezur Corridor demand, at least in an extraterritorial manner, ensuring free land communication between Turkey and Azerbaijan.
But the success of achieving these claims will depend on the further international situation and on what kind of balance of power will develop in the region from the point of view of the positions of Russia and Iran. One way or another, but the appetite of Turkey and Azerbaijan for Zangezur is very large and they do not mind returning to the provisions of the Batumi Treaty of 1918, according to which Armenia had only 10 thousand square meters left.
According to the academician, Turkey is a country with a centuries-old imperial past, which not only has a great diplomatic practice, but also, importantly, relies on strength in its international policy. "In this regard, Armenia should refrain from illusions, since it is not only about communications that Turkey and Azerbaijan want to use without hindrance, but it is about Syunik as a whole. If we take publications and statements of officials seriously, there is a risk of facing territorial demands," Safrastyan stressed, recalling that Turkey has serious problems with almost all of its neighbors. Turkish troops are on the territory of Syria and, in fact, Iraq. Turkey intervenes by force in the Libyan conflict. Not to mention Northern Cyprus.
Turkish troops are in 14 countries of the world. According to Safrastyan, one should not hope for a possible change of the Turkish leader either.
, the Turkologist emphasized.
Nevertheless, the expert believes that despite the fact that Erdogan is in the interests of the Kremlin and it will rely on him and support him, Russia is not going to leave the South Caucasus. , the expert believes.