Artsakh appears to be fooled again - Arkady Dybnov

ArmInfo.Ruben Vardanyan's resignation from the post of State Minister of Nagorno-Karabakh is not a sensation, Russian political scientist Arkady Dubnov wrote in a Facebook post.  According to him, "Vardanyan has exhausted his resource as an Armenian politician and Artsakh patriot, and he is lucky to leave the post alive." 

Explaining his opinion, Mr Dubnov assumes that the parties to the  Karabakh conflict - including Moscow, Washington and Europe - do not  need Mr Vardanyan any longer. 

"Vardanyan appeared in the right place, but at the wrong time. It is  the case of successful well-intentioned businessmen believing that  entrepreneurial spirit allows them to hope for spectacular political  success, especially when they initially rely on the support of some  of global actor or their fellow countrymen," Mr Dubnov wrote. 

"We could see a similar situation in Russia, when the billionaire  Mikhail Prokhorov was running for - presidency. It is no coincidence  that Vardanyan had to resign a couple of days after the trilateral  meeting between the Azerbaijani President [Ilham Aliyev], Armenian  Premier Nikol Pashinyan and U.S. Secretary of State [Antony] Blinken  on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. The discussed the  U.S. plan of settling the Baku-Yerevan conflict. A few days before,  in Ankara, the Armenian and Turkish FMs held a 'humanitarian'  meeting, which promised restoration of relations, albeit cautious.  Ankara is obviously playing its own game of the one in charge of the  South Caucasus, but it is certainly fits the West's plans as well,"  Mr Dubnov wrote. 

Moscow was angry at the "speaking heads" and pointed out the  disastrous consequences for Yerevan in case it dares draw closer to  the West, which is obviously seeking to undermine Russia's  peacemaking efforts in the region and even force Russia out of the  region. 

The Karabakh problem is only part of the Baku-Yerevan conflict.  Azerbaijan gained victory in the 44-day war in 2020 and got almost  all it wanted to. And it considered the Karabakh problem resolved:  Karabakh's status can only be considered as part of Azerbaijan. 

In Armenia, the idea of establishment of a second Armenian state and  the war-caused public depression and fatigue due to a constant war  threat has been on the wane, which necessitates compromise. Anyway,  Nikol Pashinyan initiated a new course. Yerevan discovered that  "might is right" and Baku is demanding maximum dividends. 

This concept was only recently reflected in Moscow's readiness to  "challenge stereotypes" by enforcing an order it wants in Ukraine.  However, something went wrong. The Ukrainian "stereotypes" proved to  meet international standards and hard to "challenge." 

In the South Caucasus the "stereotypes" are only regional ones. And  weakened Russia, which has for the second years been trying to  "finish what it has never started" in Ukraine, has lost the  confidence of both Baku and Yerevan. And, according to principles of  geopolitics, this vacuum needs to be filled, and the West - at the  right time both for itself and, possibly, for the region -has tuned  out to be there.  

And Moscow proved incapable of opposing the West even by dispatching  Ruben Vardanyan to Artsakh (he may have gone there on his own  initiative like a certain Girkin went to Donbas in 2014). Baku never  concealed its burning indignation at that. And it is clear why  Vardanyan made the world recall the problem of Karabakh and its  status. And it was this fact that President of the unrecognized  republic Arayik Harutyunyan emphasized as if he was apologizing for  being forced into dismissing Vardanyan.

Besides, Vardanyan could not "come to terms" with Armenia's premier.  Armenia appears unable to have two charismatic leaders at a time now.  As a result, both Yerevan and the West/Tutkey rejected the former  Russian oligarch as "useless", and in Moscow's game he honestly  played his role, albeit a "dark" one. No doubt, however, that Moscow  will once more get angry at another "poke" in the South Caucasus.  Even more serious discontent could be expected as well. "But whether  the Karabakh Armenians need it - I cannot say for sure. They appear  to have been fooled once again," Mr Dubnov wrote.