Saturday, February 4 2023 16:15

ArmInfo.The loss of Russia in the confrontation with the West will lead to a war of all against all in the post-Soviet space. Dmitry Suslov.

Deputy Director:Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs / Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies (CCEIS), expressed a similar  opinion on February 4 at the round table "Armenia and the global  confrontation between Russia and the West; Results of 2022",  organized by the ACSSI Center. 

According to him, the main result of 2022 is the transition of the  Russian-Western confrontation into the form of a hybrid war. Suslov  stated that the purpose of this war of the West against Russia is to  inflict a strategic defeat on it and withdraw it from the ranks of  the great powers. The expert added that Ukraine in this confrontation  is only one of the tools for the implementation of this political  task.

The Russian political scientist also believes that 2022 has led to an  understanding of the long-term nature of this confrontation, which is  of existential significance both for Russia and for the collective  West.

"Essentially, we are dealing with a world war in which about 50  countries are involved, oriented towards the United States on the one  hand and Russia, China, Iran and several other countries on the  other," he said.

At the same time, he is convinced that NATO understands that even  after the end of the acute phase of confrontation, the conflict  between the parties will continue, will last for many years and there  will be no return to the state of relations that were before February  24, 2021 in the next few decades.

Since the Ukrainian conflict has finally become a conflict not for  Ukraine, but for the world order, for the place of Russia and the  West in it, the expert continued, neither side can afford to lose.

"Yes, the stakes are higher for Russia. A hypothetical loss to Russia  would mean the collapse of its influence in the international arena,  including in the post-Soviet space, and possibly the collapse of the  country as such. That is, the loss of Russia in this confrontation  will mean the withdrawal of Russian troops from the borders,  relatively speaking, to the borders until 2014 or even the borders of  1991, but also the weakening, and even the collapse of the CSTO, the  Eurasian Economic Union. And then, in the post-Soviet space, there  will be a war against everyone. Turkey," Suslov is convinced.

He believes that the West will not establish any kind of stability in  this space, since it is primarily interested in weakening Russia, and  not ennobling the post-Soviet space.

At the same time, according to him, the loss of the West will mean  the inability to preserve Ukraine as a pro-Western and anti-Russian  country, as well as the final collapse of its hegemony, the collapse  of the world order that the Western world imposed after the end of  the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union, and possibly even  the destabilization of the Western alliance systems, including NATO.

He also believes that Russia's strategic loss is seen as a chance to  prove the strength of the Western system, a way to drastically change  the balance of power in its favor, leaving China virtually one on one  against the consolidated West and forcing it to make concessions,  returning the unipolar world.

"And the inability to defeat Russia will be perceived as the West's  final loss of such a chance and defeat in the global war," the expert  said, pointing to the unwillingness of the parties to compromise and  increase the stakes in the confrontation.

Suslov believes that Russia will not make concessions and will fight  until such a situation arises that can conditionally be considered a  victory. "Ideally, this is not only ensuring the security of new  Russian regions and moving the front line away from them as much as  possible, but also defeating Ukraine in such a way that will force it  to reduce cooperation with the United States, to reverse the process  of de-Russification.  This is the ideal option, which in the  foreseeable future, it seems unlikely to me," the expert noted,  adding that a truce would be more realistic at some stage, with the  transition to its freezing, similar to the Korean conflict - no  country will be satisfied, but it will be better than a nuclear war  between the Russian Federation and the West.

According to him, even after the end of the conflict, the hybrid war  between Russia and the West will continue.

Speaking about the consequences for the post-Soviet space, and in  particular Armenia, Suslov stated that the countries of the region  found themselves in a difficult situation, when, on the one hand, it  is dangerous to quarrel with Russia and this is fraught with  significant security costs, and on the other hand, Western pressure  has increased sharply , which forces the countries of the region to  distance themselves from the Russian Federation, is trying to use  them in anti-Russian politics, to make them another tool in the fight  against Moscow. He noted that the West is working intensively with  local elites and threatening secondary sanctions in order to weaken  Russia.

According to him, in this situation, most countries in the region are  forced to balance, take a neutral position on the Ukrainian conflict,  partly distance themselves from Russia, slow down cooperation  projects with the Russian Federation, especially in terms of economic  integration, etc.

Suslov also noted that from an economic point of view, ,many  post-Soviet countries benefit from the movement of Russian capital in  the current situation, as well as from the supply of Western goods to  Russia, but there are also high risks, especially political ones.

"Russia, of course, would like to put the Ukrainian conflict out of  the brackets of its relations with the post- Soviet countries and  maintain interaction on other issues, but this process often fails.  In addition, due to the fact that the conflict has acquired an  existential character, not only the West, but also non-Western  players have sharply stepped up in the post-Soviet space, who saw a  chance to increase their influence in the region, including due to  the fact that Moscow's dependence on these non-western countries.  First of all, we are talking about Turkey," Suslov said, pointing to  Turkey's indefatigable ambitions and complex, which is now going  ahead.

He stated that under the conditions of sanctions and Moscow's  increased dependence on Ankara, it is not beneficial for Russia today  to spoil relations with Turkey and enter into an open conflict with  it. "And realizing this, Turkey, and Azerbaijan supported by it, are  acting more and more decisively and brazenly than they would have  acted in other circumstances. But this does not mean that Russia  agrees with this, is inactive, and even more so goes over to Turkey's  side," he added, noting that Turkey is not an ally for Russia, but a  partner and rival.

Suslov believes that despite the hybrid war with the West, Russia  does not abandon the post-Soviet region, including Armenia. "To think  that Russia has nothing to do, and that it is completely absorbed  only by Ukraine, is a serious mistake," he said, adding that Russia  today is fighting precisely for the world order in which its  interests will be respected, including in this region.

"Russia is fully committed to its allied relations with Armenia both  within the EAEU and the CSTO. Russia is interested in the presence of  peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh and the resolution of the current  situation with the Lachin corridor. Russia is interested in such a  settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict that would protect  and preserve the Armenian the population of Nagorno-Karabakh, and  most importantly, would not allow the Serbian scenario of Krajina in  Croatia. For this purpose, it is necessary for Russia to continue to  be a mediator of the conflict, instead of entering into the conflict  against Azerbaijan and Turkey. Such a transformation would inevitably  mean an even larger war in the South Caucasus," the political  scientist said.

He also believes that the recent harsh statements of the Russian  Foreign Minister are due to the fact that the current leadership of  Armenia, "in pursuit of momentary tactical support", partly allows  the West to use itself in the anti-Russian struggle.

"This causes extreme concern in Moscow. Since this is fraught with  serious consequences for Armenia, more serious than after the war in  the fall of 2020. And the West, of course, will not help Armenia if  the war resumes," Suslov summed up.