Arminfo.info


 Friday, February 3 2023 20:46
Marianna Mkrtchyan

Opinion: Turkey`s upcoming elections are Recep Tayyip Erdogan`s last  decisive political battle 

Opinion: Turkey`s upcoming elections are Recep Tayyip Erdogan`s last  decisive political battle 

ArmInfo. The upcoming elections in Turkey are the last decisive political battle for Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Dean of the Faculty of Oriental Studies at Yerevan  State University, Turkologist Ruben Melkonyan, shares a similar  opinion.

Thus, giving an assessment of the forthcoming parliamentary and  presidential elections in Turkey this year, the expert stated that  presumably on May 14 parliamentary and presidential elections are  expected in Turkey.

In this vein, he drew attention to the fact that a number of opinions  are circulating in the political and expert field about the results,  significance and consequences of the relevant elections. At the same  time, Melkonyan analyzed the upcoming electoral processes in Turkey  from the point of view of political symbolism, presenting his  Turkological observations.

"This is the last and decisive political battle for Turkish President  Erdogan, for victory, in which he is ready to take any step: from an  overdose of populism and the use of administrative resources to  violations, pressures and the manifestation of sentimental emotions.  These elections will be a symbolic and practical confirmation of the  political line and style of Erdogan, who has been in politics since  the 1990s and has ruled Turkey since 2002," the Turkologist is  convinced.

The expert believes that the Kemal Turkish Republic established in  1923 has every chance to turn into the Erdogan Turkish Republic on  its 100th anniversary. According to him, and if in 1923 it chose the  model of a secular state and the ideology of secularism, then in 2023  this is a classic example of a state with an ideology of  conservatism, rich in religious / Islamic elements.

"Erdogan has prepared for the elections in political, methodological  and financial terms. Turkey, which is in financial and economic  problems, has received quite a lot of money from some Arab countries  and now, shortly before the elections, they are being used to  increase pensions, alleviate the credit burden of citizens and ensure  other similar manifestations of "financial populism"," Melkonyan  said.

At the same time, he stressed that over the years Erdogan has  mastered the synthesis of rhetoric and populism, and in fact today he  has no competitor in the political field of Turkey, who can use  political, religious, street, literary and artistic speech and  provided it possibilities.

"Despite his age and state of health, Erdogan continues to be a  figure whose speech has a natural "political fire", in contrast to  the opposition, who either do not have this fire, or it is artificial  or half-extinguished.  Erdogan skillfully plays on various emotions  of Turkish society, among of which, of course, the religious one is  the most noticeable. However, sentimentalism and emotionalism is also  manifested in these elections, the most striking example of which is  the statement that the President of Turkey asks the people to vote  for him for the last time," the Turkologist added.

Referring to the date chosen for the upcoming elections, Melkonyan  recalled that in 1950, the opposition and the semi-hidden supporter  of the rise of Islam in Turkey, the Democratic Party, won the  multi-party parliamentary elections held on May 14. In other words,  he continued, on May 14, 1950, political Islam defeated secularism or  Kemalism for the first time, and Adnan Menderes, whom the current  President Erdogan considers one of his political teachers, became the  Prime Minister of Turkey.

"Menderes has a sad and tragic end. In 1960, after a military coup in  Turkey, he was arrested and some time later hanged. Menderes is  considered the "martyr of political Islam" of the Republic of Turkey,  as well as the first politician who defeated the secular ideology of  Ataturk. In addition, his image is shrouded in a veil of mythology  and an "innocent political martyr", which after his death, and  especially in today's Turkey, dominates the social-political  perception and is one of the important factors giving rise to the  said emotionality," the Turkologist said.

In his opinion, the political heir and successor of Menderes,  Erdogan, wants to symbolically organize elections on May 14, seeking  to ensure the final victory of the Islamic political line over the  Kemalist one, secular Turkey and to consolidate Erdogan's Turkey  instead of Ataturk's Turkey. At the same time, the Turkologist  believes that Erdogan will thus try to enlist the votes of those who  supported the political line of Menderes. "Roughly speaking, the  image of Menderes will also work for Erdogan in these elections," the  expert added.

Regarding Erdogan's rivals, Melkonyan stated that at the moment an  opposition format has developed in Turkey, which consists of 6  opposition parties that are trying to nominate a single candidate.

"The members of Republican People's Party are considered to be the  main ones. Party's leader is Kemal K?l?cdaroglu and he leader of the  youth wing is the current Mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu. The  Mayor of Istanbul is a really interesting political figure, a good  speaker, well versed in the tools of populism, is popular among the  inhabitants of Istanbul. However, naturally, lacking the political  experience to compete with the grand master of Turkey's political  system, Erdogan, as well as the administrative resources accumulated  in his hands, Imamoglu, could pose a real threat, or at least cause  extreme tension for the ruling team in the elections.

In my opinion, this issue can have two solutions: either Imamoglu  does not run and gives way to the chairman of the party,  K?l?cdaroglu, and prepares for the next elections, or he runs and  immediately faces specific political persecution. And another  potential opposition presidential candidate, Kemal K?l?cdaroglu, is  inferior to Erdogan in a number of aspects and is an easier opponent  for him, but, despite this, he can collect the votes of the  opposition and especially the stable electorate of Kemal, which will  not reach a critical level, " the expert believes.

Touching on who the West will support, Melkonyan noted the importance  of taking into account two important circumstances that cannot be  ignored.

"Firstly, today's Turkey is significantly different from the Turkey  of the 20th century, where the influence and desire of the West could  be decisive. And secondly, the factor known as Western support  already sounds very old-fashioned in the case of today's Turkey,  which has reached a serious level self-sufficiency in many political  and geopolitical issues. Therefore, the visits of Turkish opposition  to Western countries and their veil of secrecy are manifestations of  eternal nostalgia for the past , now non-existent political  situation," the Turkologist believes.

According to him, Erdogan focuses and puts emphasis on symbols and  symbolic dates not only on current political issues, but also, so to  speak, on his political heritage.

"And Armenia? This question should be answered very succinctly: the  policy of the Turkish state towards the state of Armenia and the  Armenians is built and based on hostile, negative ideas, with  practical steps and policies resulting from this. Therefore,  regardless of who is the president Turkey and the ruling authorities  cannot expect any serious and positive breakthrough in relation to  Armenia, everything else is delusion wrapped in ignorance and  self-deception," Melkonyan is convinced.

In this vein, he recalled that none of the Turkish presidents over  the past 30 years has agreed to open the borders with Armenia.  "During this entire period, the Armenian-Turkish border did not open,  Armenian- Turkish relations were not regulated, Turkey's support for  Azerbaijan did not decrease, but increased, Turkey's struggle against  the international recognition of the Armenian Genocide did not stop.  The only difference in the approaches of the Turkish presidents to  Armenia are wild fluctuations the level of aggressiveness of  rhetoric, which never had and have no any connection with the current  policy," the expert summed up.

POST A COMMENT
Input digits     

News
Tatev Monastery, Vorotan Gorge - Nominees for UNESCO World Heritage  ListTatev Monastery, Vorotan Gorge - Nominees for UNESCO World Heritage  List
Opposition figure proposes Armenian Parliament members to initiate a  vote of no confidence in  Prime MinisterOpposition figure proposes Armenian Parliament members to initiate a  vote of no confidence in  Prime Minister
Lawyer: Police officers who used violence against a citizen in  Armavir haven`t been held accountableLawyer: Police officers who used violence against a citizen in  Armavir haven`t been held accountable
Anna Petrosyan elected  member of  Competition Protection Commission Anna Petrosyan elected  member of  Competition Protection Commission 
Hooverphonic`s Yerevan debut, sponsored by AraratBank, for the Philharmonic Orchestra`s 100th AnniversaryHooverphonic`s Yerevan debut, sponsored by AraratBank, for the Philharmonic Orchestra`s 100th Anniversary
Investigative Committee Head: Events of November 9, 2020 are  considered by Investigative Committee as  an attempt to overthrow the   constitutional orderInvestigative Committee Head: Events of November 9, 2020 are  considered by Investigative Committee as  an attempt to overthrow the   constitutional order
Cultural Heritage Ombudsman: Azerbaijanis destroyed Mayraberd  memorial complex in occupied ArtsakhCultural Heritage Ombudsman: Azerbaijanis destroyed Mayraberd  memorial complex in occupied Artsakh
Armenian MFA, Ambassador of China discuss bilateral partnershipArmenian MFA, Ambassador of China discuss bilateral partnership
RA Investigative Committee does not see believe that criminal  prosecution of police officers involved in violence against  activist  is necessaryRA Investigative Committee does not see believe that criminal  prosecution of police officers involved in violence against  activist  is necessary
Pashinyan: Over 50,000 euros confiscated in favor of the statePashinyan: Over 50,000 euros confiscated in favor of the state
Armenian authorities consider forming auction market for cultural  valuesArmenian authorities consider forming auction market for cultural  values
Strong wind damages cars, trees and roofs Strong wind damages cars, trees and roofs 
Many identified in Nov. 9, 2020, unrest case - Investigative  Committee Many identified in Nov. 9, 2020, unrest case - Investigative  Committee 
Kurdistan Workers` Party announces disarmament and dissolutionKurdistan Workers` Party announces disarmament and dissolution
RA Prosecutor Gen`s Office demands confiscation of Kocharyans`  property RA Prosecutor Gen`s Office demands confiscation of Kocharyans`  property 
Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade hopes to commission industrial  park commissioning in Azerbaijan this year Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade hopes to commission industrial  park commissioning in Azerbaijan this year 
Torture of journalist result of her criticism against police chief -  lawyer Torture of journalist result of her criticism against police chief -  lawyer 
MP demands legal assessment of MoD rep`s statement from RA Prosecutor  GenMP demands legal assessment of MoD rep`s statement from RA Prosecutor  Gen
Catholicos Garegin II highlights importance of international judicial  community`s response to protection of fircibly displaced  Armenians`rights Catholicos Garegin II highlights importance of international judicial  community`s response to protection of fircibly displaced  Armenians`rights 
$600mln worth property returned to Armenia`s public - MP$600mln worth property returned to Armenia`s public - MP
U.S. Department of State reaffirms commitment to peace between  Armenia, AzerbaijanU.S. Department of State reaffirms commitment to peace between  Armenia, Azerbaijan
Welcoming war veterals from Russia, Israel, Armenia, Molgolia was  special honor for state leaders - Vladimir Putin Welcoming war veterals from Russia, Israel, Armenia, Molgolia was  special honor for state leaders - Vladimir Putin 
Armenian defense minister travels to GermanyArmenian defense minister travels to Germany
Official Yerevan welcomes ceasefire agreements between India and  PakistanOfficial Yerevan welcomes ceasefire agreements between India and  Pakistan
Armenia`s authorities on most disastrous way in dealing with  Azerbaijan - opposition MPArmenia`s authorities on most disastrous way in dealing with  Azerbaijan - opposition MP
EAJ delegation visits Armenian Genocide memorial EAJ delegation visits Armenian Genocide memorial 
Several ways of Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process - Jeyhun Bayramov Several ways of Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process - Jeyhun Bayramov 
UJA condemns arrest of journalist Lilit Aghekyan UJA condemns arrest of journalist Lilit Aghekyan 
`Defeated Nazism must not rise again!` - delegations` statement `Defeated Nazism must not rise again!` - delegations` statement 
Armenia`s MOD refutes Azerbaijan`s disinformationArmenia`s MOD refutes Azerbaijan`s disinformation
International community should resolutely respond to use of force as  means for conflict resolution - RA Rep at UNInternational community should resolutely respond to use of force as  means for conflict resolution - RA Rep at UN
No `secret agreements` with European pharmaceutical companies - RA  Premier`s Office No `secret agreements` with European pharmaceutical companies - RA  Premier`s Office 
Armenian MP on three-year-long custody of General Mikael ArzumanyanArmenian MP on three-year-long custody of General Mikael Arzumanyan
Azerbaijani armed forces open fire on Khnatsakh settlementAzerbaijani armed forces open fire on Khnatsakh settlement
Armenian and Marseille medical institutions to collaborate in   maternal and reproductive health areasArmenian and Marseille medical institutions to collaborate in   maternal and reproductive health areas
Azerbaijani side shelled a residential building in KhnatsakhAzerbaijani side shelled a residential building in Khnatsakh
Pashinyan left for Moscow on a working visitPashinyan left for Moscow on a working visit
Criminal charges may be pursued for ANIF fund abuses - Prosecutor  GeneralCriminal charges may be pursued for ANIF fund abuses - Prosecutor  General
Human rights activist: Armenia`s National Security Service does not  have intelligence data  on 1,160 missing persons in the Karabakh  conflictHuman rights activist: Armenia`s National Security Service does not  have intelligence data  on 1,160 missing persons in the Karabakh  conflict
Armenia`s Security Council Chief to leave for IndiaArmenia`s Security Council Chief to leave for India
Ambassador of Belarus to Armenia honors memory of Great Patriotic War  heroesAmbassador of Belarus to Armenia honors memory of Great Patriotic War  heroes
Pashinyan honors memory of Radik MartirosyanPashinyan honors memory of Radik Martirosyan
Putin congratulates leaders and citizens of foreign countries on 80th  anniversary of  Victory in  Great Patriotic War Putin congratulates leaders and citizens of foreign countries on 80th  anniversary of  Victory in  Great Patriotic War 
Ruling Ruling "Civil Contract" party to  run for 2026 elections  independently
Boycott at Yerevan School  after Pushkin - teachers and students  protest against  dismissal of  institution`s directorBoycott at Yerevan School  after Pushkin - teachers and students  protest against  dismissal of  institution`s director
Germany is Armenia`s reliable partner: Pashinyan congratulates Merz  on assuming officeGermany is Armenia`s reliable partner: Pashinyan congratulates Merz  on assuming office
" Five Human Rights Defenders Initiative ": Nikol Pashinyan`s  behavior is anti-democratic and extremely dangerous
In Armenia, it is now possible to buy and sell vehicles, as well as  register and request license plates onlineIn Armenia, it is now possible to buy and sell vehicles, as well as  register and request license plates online
RA Prosecutor General`s Office striving to improve efficiency of  combating corruptionRA Prosecutor General`s Office striving to improve efficiency of  combating corruption
All cases related to Azerbaijan`s actions are confidential -  Prosecutor GeneralAll cases related to Azerbaijan`s actions are confidential -  Prosecutor General
“My Ameria, My Family” – Lots of Benefits, Raffle of 300+ Gifts and Much More“My Ameria, My Family” – Lots of Benefits, Raffle of 300+ Gifts and Much More
Public and political figures visit Yerablur military pantheon to  commemorate 33rd anniversary of Public and political figures visit Yerablur military pantheon to  commemorate 33rd anniversary of "Wedding in the Mountains" operation
Armenia to eliminate age restrictions for  Police serviceArmenia to eliminate age restrictions for  Police service
Preliminary investigation into October 27 case underway - RA  Prosecutor General Preliminary investigation into October 27 case underway - RA  Prosecutor General 
U.S. Government to support Armenian border guards with equipment,  vehicles U.S. Government to support Armenian border guards with equipment,  vehicles 
RA Prosecutor Gen`s Office often refrains from appealing court  verdicts RA Prosecutor Gen`s Office often refrains from appealing court  verdicts 
Muster of reservists to take place in Armenia June 3 to Aug 22Muster of reservists to take place in Armenia June 3 to Aug 22
Betrayer that surrendered Artsakh and part of Armenia`s territory  seeking to remain in power by lying to people - ARF Betrayer that surrendered Artsakh and part of Armenia`s territory  seeking to remain in power by lying to people - ARF 
Andranik Berberyan`s music performed at opening ceremony of 60th  European Karate ChampionshipAndranik Berberyan`s music performed at opening ceremony of 60th  European Karate Championship
RPA vice-chairman invites Armenia`s premier to public debate RPA vice-chairman invites Armenia`s premier to public debate 
Read more



Commented