Opinion: Turkey`s upcoming elections are Recep Tayyip Erdogan`s last  decisive political battle 

ArmInfo. The upcoming elections in Turkey are the last decisive political battle for Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Dean of the Faculty of Oriental Studies at Yerevan  State University, Turkologist Ruben Melkonyan, shares a similar  opinion.

Thus, giving an assessment of the forthcoming parliamentary and  presidential elections in Turkey this year, the expert stated that  presumably on May 14 parliamentary and presidential elections are  expected in Turkey.

In this vein, he drew attention to the fact that a number of opinions  are circulating in the political and expert field about the results,  significance and consequences of the relevant elections. At the same  time, Melkonyan analyzed the upcoming electoral processes in Turkey  from the point of view of political symbolism, presenting his  Turkological observations.

"This is the last and decisive political battle for Turkish President  Erdogan, for victory, in which he is ready to take any step: from an  overdose of populism and the use of administrative resources to  violations, pressures and the manifestation of sentimental emotions.  These elections will be a symbolic and practical confirmation of the  political line and style of Erdogan, who has been in politics since  the 1990s and has ruled Turkey since 2002," the Turkologist is  convinced.

The expert believes that the Kemal Turkish Republic established in  1923 has every chance to turn into the Erdogan Turkish Republic on  its 100th anniversary. According to him, and if in 1923 it chose the  model of a secular state and the ideology of secularism, then in 2023  this is a classic example of a state with an ideology of  conservatism, rich in religious / Islamic elements.

"Erdogan has prepared for the elections in political, methodological  and financial terms. Turkey, which is in financial and economic  problems, has received quite a lot of money from some Arab countries  and now, shortly before the elections, they are being used to  increase pensions, alleviate the credit burden of citizens and ensure  other similar manifestations of "financial populism"," Melkonyan  said.

At the same time, he stressed that over the years Erdogan has  mastered the synthesis of rhetoric and populism, and in fact today he  has no competitor in the political field of Turkey, who can use  political, religious, street, literary and artistic speech and  provided it possibilities.

"Despite his age and state of health, Erdogan continues to be a  figure whose speech has a natural "political fire", in contrast to  the opposition, who either do not have this fire, or it is artificial  or half-extinguished.  Erdogan skillfully plays on various emotions  of Turkish society, among of which, of course, the religious one is  the most noticeable. However, sentimentalism and emotionalism is also  manifested in these elections, the most striking example of which is  the statement that the President of Turkey asks the people to vote  for him for the last time," the Turkologist added.

Referring to the date chosen for the upcoming elections, Melkonyan  recalled that in 1950, the opposition and the semi-hidden supporter  of the rise of Islam in Turkey, the Democratic Party, won the  multi-party parliamentary elections held on May 14. In other words,  he continued, on May 14, 1950, political Islam defeated secularism or  Kemalism for the first time, and Adnan Menderes, whom the current  President Erdogan considers one of his political teachers, became the  Prime Minister of Turkey.

"Menderes has a sad and tragic end. In 1960, after a military coup in  Turkey, he was arrested and some time later hanged. Menderes is  considered the "martyr of political Islam" of the Republic of Turkey,  as well as the first politician who defeated the secular ideology of  Ataturk. In addition, his image is shrouded in a veil of mythology  and an "innocent political martyr", which after his death, and  especially in today's Turkey, dominates the social-political  perception and is one of the important factors giving rise to the  said emotionality," the Turkologist said.

In his opinion, the political heir and successor of Menderes,  Erdogan, wants to symbolically organize elections on May 14, seeking  to ensure the final victory of the Islamic political line over the  Kemalist one, secular Turkey and to consolidate Erdogan's Turkey  instead of Ataturk's Turkey. At the same time, the Turkologist  believes that Erdogan will thus try to enlist the votes of those who  supported the political line of Menderes. "Roughly speaking, the  image of Menderes will also work for Erdogan in these elections," the  expert added.

Regarding Erdogan's rivals, Melkonyan stated that at the moment an  opposition format has developed in Turkey, which consists of 6  opposition parties that are trying to nominate a single candidate.

"The members of Republican People's Party are considered to be the  main ones. Party's leader is Kemal K?l?cdaroglu and he leader of the  youth wing is the current Mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu. The  Mayor of Istanbul is a really interesting political figure, a good  speaker, well versed in the tools of populism, is popular among the  inhabitants of Istanbul. However, naturally, lacking the political  experience to compete with the grand master of Turkey's political  system, Erdogan, as well as the administrative resources accumulated  in his hands, Imamoglu, could pose a real threat, or at least cause  extreme tension for the ruling team in the elections.

In my opinion, this issue can have two solutions: either Imamoglu  does not run and gives way to the chairman of the party,  K?l?cdaroglu, and prepares for the next elections, or he runs and  immediately faces specific political persecution. And another  potential opposition presidential candidate, Kemal K?l?cdaroglu, is  inferior to Erdogan in a number of aspects and is an easier opponent  for him, but, despite this, he can collect the votes of the  opposition and especially the stable electorate of Kemal, which will  not reach a critical level, " the expert believes.

Touching on who the West will support, Melkonyan noted the importance  of taking into account two important circumstances that cannot be  ignored.

"Firstly, today's Turkey is significantly different from the Turkey  of the 20th century, where the influence and desire of the West could  be decisive. And secondly, the factor known as Western support  already sounds very old-fashioned in the case of today's Turkey,  which has reached a serious level self-sufficiency in many political  and geopolitical issues. Therefore, the visits of Turkish opposition  to Western countries and their veil of secrecy are manifestations of  eternal nostalgia for the past , now non-existent political  situation," the Turkologist believes.

According to him, Erdogan focuses and puts emphasis on symbols and  symbolic dates not only on current political issues, but also, so to  speak, on his political heritage.

"And Armenia? This question should be answered very succinctly: the  policy of the Turkish state towards the state of Armenia and the  Armenians is built and based on hostile, negative ideas, with  practical steps and policies resulting from this. Therefore,  regardless of who is the president Turkey and the ruling authorities  cannot expect any serious and positive breakthrough in relation to  Armenia, everything else is delusion wrapped in ignorance and  self-deception," Melkonyan is convinced.

In this vein, he recalled that none of the Turkish presidents over  the past 30 years has agreed to open the borders with Armenia.  "During this entire period, the Armenian-Turkish border did not open,  Armenian- Turkish relations were not regulated, Turkey's support for  Azerbaijan did not decrease, but increased, Turkey's struggle against  the international recognition of the Armenian Genocide did not stop.  The only difference in the approaches of the Turkish presidents to  Armenia are wild fluctuations the level of aggressiveness of  rhetoric, which never had and have no any connection with the current  policy," the expert summed up.