Armenia needs to "distance itself from dependence" on Russia without  seceding from CSTO

ArmInfo.Armenia needs to "distance itself from dependence" on Russia without, however, seceding from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO),  Russian political scientist Arkady Dubnov said in an interview with  Civil.net. 

The CSTO Regulations clearly read that a member-state can apply for  military aid in case of a foreign aggression. In this respect,  Yerevan's claims on the CSTO are quite natural. 

"But we are all perfectly aware of the fact the organization is  incapable of nor is it going to assist Yerevan, and no expectations  should be held about it," Mr Dubnov said. In this context, he  highlights the importance of a political viewpoint. The claims that  Russia and the CSTO are betraying Armenia are of importance for  Armenia's Premier Nikol Pashinyan, who is making an expert use of the  situation. And the CSTO's justifications may have been the reason for  the failures of Armenia and the Armenian army. "So Armenia's  application to the CSTO is absolutely legal. Does it have any sense?  No, it does not. At present, the CSTO is a 'case of a handle'," he  said. 

The CSTO was formed 30 years ago not to rebuff foreign attacks  against the member-states, but to oppose the Islamic extremists in  Afghanistan. It was not supposed to defend one member from another,  which is the case of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, or one CIS  member-state from another. 

"In this respect, the CSTO is impotent now. Yes, Russian weapons can  be supplied at a discount, with benefits from being a great power's  neighbor, but this great power remained neutral in this particular  situation. So, Pashinyan is expertly drawing all the CSTO  member-states' attention to the zugzwang Armenia has found itself in.  Yerevan has no way out and Armenia's premier has once more shown that  the CSTO accounts for some of Armenia's failures. It is true, but far  from being absolutely true," Mr Dubnov said.  Among other reasons is  the history of Armenian politics, Armenians' self-consciousness, and  they have to adjust themselves in this tragic situation. 

As regards Armenia's possible secession from the CSTO, the expert  recalled the Armenian premier's statement that the CSTO would rather  leave the region than Armenia leaves the organization. 

Should Armenia leave the CSTO, it would cause a chaos in the region.  After the CSTO proved a fiasco at the Yerevan summit, Armenia will  naturally apply to the West for help, which has actually happened.   Armenia's withdrawal from the CSTO would heighten the risk of  military clashes, and the U.S., Europe or NATO member-states will not  come to the region to defend Armenia from Azerbaijan.  

"NATO is hardly refraining from getting involved in the  Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Are they going to defend you, with  Azerbaijan seeking to ultimately settle the Armenian issue? No, it is  not going to be so," Mr Dubnov said.