ArmInfo. While continuing negotiations with both Armenia and different mediators, the Azerbaijani authorities do not rule out military scenarios if Yerevan rejects the Baku-proposed maximum programme, Russian political expert Sergey Markedonov wrote on Bunin & Co Telegram channel as he commented on Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev's statement in Shushi, with aggressive messages addressed to Armenia, Iran, Russia and the West.
"Armenia should know that it is not a statement by any of its patrons, but our own policy, that is holding us back. We are not afraid of anyone. If we had been afraid of anyone, we would have never started the second Karabakh war," Ilham Aliyev said.
Thus, Aliyev is acting as a hard-line leader ready for peace with his neighbors on terms his own country sets.
"And Aliyev's speech in Shushi on the occasion of the 2nd anniversary of victory in the second Karabakh war, on November 8, was a message addressed not only to Yerevan though. Let us first consider some symbolic aspects of the Azerbaijani leader's speech. On November 9, 2020, Vladimir Putin, Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan signed a trilateral statement. It not only put an end the hostilities, but also outlined new status quo, with Azerbaijan's much greater role. Azerbaijan establishing control over the seven districts neighboring the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region (NKAR) proved one of the main features of the 'autumn war'. But, perhaps, the return of Shushi, second largest town in Karabakh, proved the most powerful symbol of Azerbaijan's success. And it is not only this fact that makes the Azerbaijani leader's speech there significant. It took place a couple of days after the Armenian and Azerbaijani FMs' meeting mediated by the U.S. Secretary of State, and a week or so after the Sochi summit mediated by the Russian president. And in this context the importance of the Shushi speech can by no means be played down. Aliyev is thereby emphasizing that peace in Nagorno-Karabakh is agreeing to Baku-set terms. In his statement the Azerbaijani president was severely critical of the Armenian authorities over 'the occupation' of his country's territories, as well as of 'the revenge-seekers' in Yerevan and representatives of international agencies questioning the effectiveness of the military settlement of the conflict," Mr Markedonov writes.
A signal was sent to Russia as well.
"According to Ilham Aliyev, the Russian peacekeepers are 'temporarily deployed in Karabakh', and the term of their mission is clearly set. After that Armenia cannot rely on Moscow's resources. Criticism was also leveled at 'some foreign patrons' of Yerevan, with a clear hint at Iran. The Azerbaijani president stressed that the Azerbaijani army's readiness to achieve necessary results must be clear to the one 'conducting military training in support of Armenia along our borders.' Thus, While continuing negotiations with both Armenia and different mediators, the Azerbaijani authorities do not rule out military scenarios if Yerevan reject the Baku-proposed maximum programme," Mr Markedonov wrote.