ArmInfo. Armenia's greatest diplomatic failure in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process in the wake of the 44- day war was the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group, which resulted in the loss of what had been achieved during decades of negotiations. Besides the geopolitical preconditions, the incumbent Armenian authorities' incompetent foreign policy is to blame as well, reads a statement by the Luys Foundation.
Negotiations with Azerbaijan outside the OSCE Minsk Group, as well as discussion on Artsakh and the so-called "peace agreement" on other platforms, were aimed to end the OSCE MG's activities, with all the ensuing consequences.
"Azerbaijan's latest aggression has shown once more that state is incapable of honoring any agreements, unless certain supervision is exercised. The major international actors' reaction to the latest developments is evidence that the new escalation in the region is only in the interests of the Turkish-Azerbaijani alliance, with no superpower interested in it," the statement reads.
In this context, the Luys Foundation singled out a number of points:
France has proposed a meeting of the U.N. Security Council to discuss the Armenian-Azerbaijani border escalation; Ned Price of the U.S. Department of State called on the United States and Russia to use its influence on Armenia and Azerbaijan to de-escalate the situation; Denis Gonchar of the Russian foreign office stated that by means of the OSCE Minsk Group Paris is signaling its readiness to resume contacts. These most important statements and actions open up new opportunities for counterattacks for Armenian diplomacy.
The Luys Foundation is sure that the U.N. Security Council and other international venues needs to be used to explain to the international community that Azerbaijan is unwilling to honor any of its international agreements with Armenia without serious international supervision by the United States, Russia and France (as well as other permanent members of the U.N. Security Council). Therefore, the so-called "peace talks" can only be effective if mediated and guaranteed by the international entities in question.
"The international community, especially the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairing, should be convinced of the following truth: the agendas of the Armenia- Azerbaijan relations and Artsakh problem need to be united and discussed as one package. Life has shown that a final settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani relations is impossible without a comprehensive settlement of the Artsakh problem, and Azerbaijan's incessant aggression against Armenia is inevitable.
Armenia should refuse to negotiate a "peace agreement" with Azerbaijan on other platforms, such as the Samarkard Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) or the Informal meeting of heads of state or government, in Prague, on October 7, 2022.
The U.N. General Assembly is holding a session in the coming days, and Armenia could address letters to each of the OSCE MG co-chairing countries and request the revitalization of the OSCE MG format to propose an initiative of an Armenian-Azerbaijan mediated by the OSCE MG, which would be aimed at resuming the negotiations on a "peace agreement" interrupted by Azerbaijan's latest aggression. Even if Azerbaijan rejects a proposal for such a meeting, the Armenian side's meeting with the three co-chairs could give a most important diplomatic impetus to the process. Armenia could propose that the co-chairing countries reiterate their positions on the key points of the OSCE MG's heritage, particularly on the Madrid principles. Try to revitalize the agreements reached in Vienna and Saint Petersburg in 2016, which provide for border incident monitoring mechanisms, which was lost as a result of great diplomatic failures in 2018-2020.
What are the prospects?
"Of course, amid the Russia-USA geopolitical confrontation and the situation in Ukraine, Russia and USA can hardly be encouraged to hold diplomatic contacts and reach consensus. But the three aforementioned statements inspire some hope of success. The sides are obviously aware of each other's role in the matter, and the revitalization of the OSCE MG will enable them to revitalize at least this last diplomatic channel, which is highly important for managing the Ukraine crisis to prevent it from getting out of control.
"Revitalizing the OSCE MG format will enable the United States to return to the geopolitics of the South Caucasus, while Russia will be able to avoid a military escalation and opening of a 'second front.' The EU, represented by France, will be interested as well as - a new military conflict in the region will even exacerbate the energy crisis in Europe, especially in the context of the EU's hopes for energy resource supplies from Azerbaijan and Central Asia, which could be stopped ishould a full-scale war break out in the region," the statement reads.
Azerbaijan's aggression against Artsakh in 2016 ended up in a diplomatic failure for it, followed by the Vienna and Saint Petersburg agreements and Ilham Aliyev's confession that he was persuaded into recognizing Nagorno-Karabakh behind closed doors. Although in contrast to 2016 the geopolitical situation in the region is essentially different, to the Armenian side's disadvantage, opportunities are still available and missing them would be unpardonable.
"Of course, there is no guarantee the process will be a complete success, especially with the incumbent authorities, which are incapable of effective diplomacy and maneuvering to their geopolitical benefits. In other words, even if the proposed diplomatic configurations fail, it will most probably be the result of the authorities' failure, but not the result of poor ideas or unfavorable geopolitical factors.
"Nonetheless, this is one of the few opportunities to be seized for at least a minimal diplomatic victory to be gained, to ease the pain of irreparable human and territorial losses as a result of Azerbaijan's aggression."