Forecast: Geopolitical competition does not mean global changes in  the South Caucasus

ArmInfo.Despite the sharp period of geopolitical competition for the South Caucasus, global changes in the region are not expected for Moscow in the long term. Fyodor  Lukyanov,  Research Director of the Valdai Discussion Club, Chairman,  Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Editor-in-Chief, Russia in  Global Affairs journal, expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.

"We understand that this period cannot but influence the general  situation in the region, including the situation in Armenia.  Accordingly, we do not exclude shake-ups, which, however, are already  taking place.  The Pashinyan-Aliyev-Michel Brussels negotiations to  be held on August 31 are also part of these processes., but, as we  see, these negotiations do not cause much concern in Moscow," he  stressed.  Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Azerbaijani  President Ilham Aliyev and Council of Europe President Charles Michel  will meet on August 31 in Brussels. According to the Office of the  Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, the same issues that were  the subject of discussion in Brussels earlier will be discussed at  the meeting.

On August 20, information was spread in the mass media about the  preparation of another Putin-Pashinyan- Aliyev meeting on August 31  in Moscow. It should be noted that this is the second time that  instead of the meeting of the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan  announced in Moscow, it takes place in Brussels. In total, three  Pashinyan-Aliyev meetings took place in the Brussels format.

The analyst connects the reasons for such loyalty of  Russia to the  strengthening of the role of the EU in mediation in the settlement of  Armenian-Azerbaijani problems, to the current priorities of Russia's  foreign policy. Noting the importance for the Russian Federation of  any problems in the post-Soviet space, Lukyanov recalled that since  February 24, Ukraine has become Moscow's priority in this very space  The reason for Moscow's lack of proper response to all processes and  impulses in the South Caucasus, without exception, the analyst  believes is Ukraine. Hence, among other things, Moscow's position  aimed at a long- term solution to the Karabakh conflict. The latter,  at the same time, retains all its geopolitical pillars throughout the  region, in order to intensify its own efforts and policies after the  resolution of the main Ukrainian problem.

"The South Caucasus, the post-Soviet space, like all of us, is going  through another transitional period with all the accompanying  difficulties and problems. And large and small geopolitical upheavals  are an inseparable part of it. The significance of the region for  Russia has not changed and will not change. And I don't see any  special reasons for Moscow's concern about the prospects for ongoing  geopolitical upheavals," Lukyanov summed up.