ArmInfo. I do not think that today one can seriously consider and analyze the prospect of large-scale hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Head of Caucasus Department of the CIS Institute, Military Expert Vladimir Evseev expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.
"However, in parallel with the emergence of rough edges and problems in the negotiation process, there will undoubtedly be military provocations on the border. In this light, the recent provocations on the border with Armenia and in Karabakh, of course, were not a coincidence. Moreover, in my opinion, they are related to the rhetoric that has recently been heard from Baku and Ankara," he said.
In other words, according to the expert, the violation of the cease-fire regime in Karabakh and on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border is due to the purely military-political situation, rather than the military situation or reasons. And to be more precise, it is caused by the dissatisfaction of Ankara and Baku regarding the course of negotiations with Yerevan.
On July 30, the Azerbaijani Armed Forces opened fire from small arms on a position near Taghavard village of Artsakh. The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation confirmed the fact of shelling of positions of the Defense Army. On the same day, the Azerbaijani military shelled tthe positions of the Armenian Armed Forces in the eastern direction of the border.
According to Yevseev, in this particular case, by threatening the opponent through military provocations, Baku is trying to speed up the discussion and adoption of its five points of the peace agreement. A process that has stalled both for geopolitical and purely regional reasons.
"They are well aware that already tomorrow the negotiations may enter an unpredictable stage and more and more questions arise there. This is where Azerbaijan's urgency and desire to resolve issues with Armenia as soon as possible comes from. To resolve before the onset of a new stage of global geopolitical transformations," the military expert summed up.