Geopolitical importance of the South Caucasus will be declining -  Alexander Iskandaryan

ArmInfo.In the course of time, the geopolitical importance of the South Caucasus will be declining, Alexander Iskandaryan, Director of the Yerevan-based Caucasus  Institute, said in an interview with ArmInfo. 

"It is the geographical location of the South Caucasus between  Russia, Turkey and Iran that accounts for its current geopolitical  importance - various international trunk lines are running via its  territory. On more reason for attention to our region is its being  over-militarized. Besides, Ukraine and, importantly, China are and  will inevitably be contribute to waning interest in the South  Caucasus," Mr Iskandaryan said.  

The prospects of the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process depend on the  Ukraine-related "impulses," with Ukraine being of the factors  allowing such forecasts. In Armenia's case, breaking the Karabakh  stalemate would be the result of restoration of Armenian nationhood. 

Mr Iskandaryan finds it difficult to speak of a settlement of the  Nagorno-Karabakh problem due to diplomatic activities for the simple  reason that it is impossible to do within Azerbaijan's borders with  respect for the Artsakh Armenians' right. Striking evidence thereof  is the results of the 44-day war - no Armenians remained in the  Azerbaijan-controlled territories. On the other hand, it is hardly  realistic to speak of Azerbaijan recognizing Artsakh's independence,  which necessitates finding news of settling the conflict. 

"With different views of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement  being held by Russia and the United States, we are facing another  problem. And the new conflict between Russia and the West over  Ukraine has nothing in common with the South Caucasus. This being so,  the EU is incapable of seriously competing with Russia, much less  threatening its interests, primarily due to its being incapable of  'physically' Ensuring security there. However, Russia is incapable of  forcing the EU out of the South Caucasus as well.  The result is that  their settlement projects have no alternative but to run parallel  with each other," Mr Iskandaryan said.