ArmInfo.In the course of time, the geopolitical importance of the South Caucasus will be declining, Alexander Iskandaryan, Director of the Yerevan-based Caucasus Institute, said in an interview with ArmInfo.
"It is the geographical location of the South Caucasus between Russia, Turkey and Iran that accounts for its current geopolitical importance - various international trunk lines are running via its territory. On more reason for attention to our region is its being over-militarized. Besides, Ukraine and, importantly, China are and will inevitably be contribute to waning interest in the South Caucasus," Mr Iskandaryan said.
The prospects of the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process depend on the Ukraine-related "impulses," with Ukraine being of the factors allowing such forecasts. In Armenia's case, breaking the Karabakh stalemate would be the result of restoration of Armenian nationhood.
Mr Iskandaryan finds it difficult to speak of a settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem due to diplomatic activities for the simple reason that it is impossible to do within Azerbaijan's borders with respect for the Artsakh Armenians' right. Striking evidence thereof is the results of the 44-day war - no Armenians remained in the Azerbaijan-controlled territories. On the other hand, it is hardly realistic to speak of Azerbaijan recognizing Artsakh's independence, which necessitates finding news of settling the conflict.
"With different views of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement being held by Russia and the United States, we are facing another problem. And the new conflict between Russia and the West over Ukraine has nothing in common with the South Caucasus. This being so, the EU is incapable of seriously competing with Russia, much less threatening its interests, primarily due to its being incapable of 'physically' Ensuring security there. However, Russia is incapable of forcing the EU out of the South Caucasus as well. The result is that their settlement projects have no alternative but to run parallel with each other," Mr Iskandaryan said.