Forecast: The prospects for Iran and Central Asia to become new  hotbeds of conflict also affect the South Caucasus

ArmInfo. As of today, there are all the prerequisites and impulses that allow us to forecast that Iran and Central Asia, neighboring Armenia, may become new hotbeds of  serious conflicts. A similar opinion was expressed to ArmInfo by  Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary, former Foreign Minister  of Artsakh Arman Melikyan.

"I believe that all these prospects are seen and realized in Brussels  which, among other things, encourages the European Union to take on a  certain role in the South Caucasus. It is not clear yet what Armenia  will get from this, but it is clear what Azerbaijan and even Russia  will get, Taking into account the extreme difficulty of organizing  the supply of Azerbaijani energy resources to Europe without Russia,"  he said.

According to the diplomat, against this background, Armenia continues  to pose a threat, embodying the resumption of hostilities in the  region, in which case Azerbaijan's supplies to Europe may be  suspended. In this light, according to him, the possible concessions  that Armenia may be forced to make, will take place against the  backdrop of universal solidarity.

Melikyan believes that the very fact of taking on a partial role and  functions of the OSCE Minsk Group by the head of the European  Council, Charles Michel, is a confirmation of Aliyev's statements  about the complete senselessness of further continuation of the  chairs' activities. Accordingly, in his opinion, the very involvement  of Michel in the settlement zone, coupled with the disappearance of  the joint mediation platform, creates the best starting conditions  for Baku at a new stage of negotiations.  

"First of all, we need to take into account the fact of a sharp  increase in the EU's interest in the supply of energy from Azerbaijan  as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian war, as well as the fact that  Baku made relevant promises to Brussels. And the content of Charles  Michel's Brussels statements, in fact, only confirms all this.   Moreover, the EU cannot give any real guarantees of the  implementation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani agreements reached in  Brussels, simply because it does not have a military presence in the  region. And the fact that Russia has this presence allows us to  expect its cooperation in order to ensure the successful  implementation of the mediation efforts of the European Union,"  Melikyan summed up.