ArmInfo.In case some of the post-Soviet states, at least the CSTO member-states, are involved in the actions against Ukraine, Moscow will significantly advance the expansion of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), well into realizing a project of Allied State, Armen Grigoryan, Vice-Chairman of the International Politics and Society center, said in an interview with ArmInfo.
"If the current situation in Ukraine escalates into a war, Russia will be able to ensure at least the CSTO member-states' involvement or have them recognize the occupied territories part of Russia. It is clear it would immediately turn such a state into an accomplice in the processes and worsen its relations with the West," Mr Grigoryan said.
Such a step would naturally strip the states of the opportunities for geopolitical maneuvering, which would boost Moscow's chances to draw them into the EAEU and, later, into an Allied State, which, besides Belarus, would include other post-Soviet states.
This last factor contains one more "propaganda benefit" for Moscow: losing Ukraine, which is actually under western control, will be compensated for by the return of the other "fraternal nations into Russia's fold," which will enable Moscow to "save its face" and, consequently, Ukraine's new status quo.
Mr Grigoryan does not see the West is especially concerned over the joint statement between Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Russian President Vladimir Putin, which, a number of experts said, contained points showing Armenia's overt support for Russia's actions in Ukraine. The West is most likely to continue keeping track of the developments to prevent Russia's attempts to bypass the sanctions.
"This is what is the redline for the U.S. and EU rather than mere declarations - even if 30-point ones. So I think no effort will be spared to prevent it. As to the possibility of Armenia facing a choice between Russia and the West, I consider such a possibility only in the context of such an initiative by Moscow, but not at all by Brussels," Mr Grigoryan said.