ArmInfo. At this stage, it seems possible to forecast that Moscow will try to maintain its own positions in the South Caucasus. In the conditions of it involvement in the war in Ukraine, we cannot claim more. As for Brussels, it will actively try to accelerate regional processes.
A similar opinion was expressed to ArmInfo by chief researcher of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, orientalist Alexei Malashenko.
"It is clear that the completely new geopolitical situation in the region is a challenge not only for Armenia and Azerbaijan, but for all interested parties. And the most serious struggle will unfold not even between the conflicting parties, but between global and, it is important to emphasize, regional players. The problem with all this news for Yerevan and Baku is that it will significantly complicate their already difficult affairs and problems," he stressed.
In this light, according to Malashenko, the West is quite consciously refusing to have any relations with Russia in the South Caucasus, making attempts to permanently remove it from the region. In his opinion, Moscow, in turn, was initially ready for such a scenario as a result of a geopolitical clash with the West on the territory of Ukraine. In particular, attempts to further inflame the situation in the South Caucasus were quite expected.
According to the orientalist, the task is set to weaken the Russian position in this direction, in this particular case to strike at the peacekeeping mission of the Russian Federation in Artsakh as much as possible. According to the expert's forecasts, considering the issue of Moscow's diplomatic involvement in the settlement of problems between Armenia and Azerbaijan closed, now the West will try to destroy the military presence of the Russian Federation in the region. The latter, in response, will undoubtedly operate within its own rather extensive toolkit.
"A longer-term forecast of the situation requires an answer to the question of what Moscow thinks about the possibility of holding separate talks on Karabakh in the presence of the Russian military there. Which, in turn raises a difficult question for Baku and Yerevan - how do they view, in fact, the discussion, of the same issues of settlement in parallel with Moscow and Brussels in the conditions of open rivalry for the status of a mediator. I believe that this issue is a big challenge for Armenia and Azerbaijan. And we see that the same Baku, which, following the results of the 44-day war, refused to cooperate with the West on the Karabakh issue, has already returned to the arms of Brussels. But neither Baku nor Yerevan have the opportunity to refuse this to Moscow as well," summed up Malashenko.