ArmInfo. In an interview with ArmInfo, Professor of the Georgian Technical University, Doctor of International Relations, conflictologist Amiran Khevtsuriani comments on the latest geopolitical impulses around Georgia and Armenia in the context of the war in Ukraine; shares his own vision of the future of the South Caucasus, integration projects with the participation of Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan.
- As far as it seems possible to judge from the statements of Ukrainian top officials, the current developments in and around Ukraine have already led to Kyiv's abandonment of its intentions to join NATO. In your opinion, will this situation somehow correct Georgia's NATO aspirations?
- The Ukrainian government, headed by President Zelenskyy, showed an impeccable example of struggle and resilience in this situation, which was a complete surprise for many of us. They completely control the situation in the country, coordinate the actions of the Armed Forces, and most importantly, they managed to fully consolidate the Ukrainian nation and unite it against the enemy. Against this background, the statements of the Ukrainian authorities, including completely legitimate claims against their partners, cannot be ignored, because today the fate of the civilized world is being decided in Ukraine. As for abandoning NATO, I think it is wrong to put the question in this way. Theoretically, this is possible, but only with a conditional replacement for "NATO 2".
Otherwise, it's simply out of the question. That is, Ukraine should accept a shield of guaranteed security, and not what was the result of the Budapest Memorandum, in exchange for which Ukraine gave up its nuclear potential. So there can be no question of a direct rejection of NATO, such a decision cannot be made by the Ukrainian government alone, because such issues are to be decided primarily by the Ukrainian people - through a referendum. As for Georgia, our country is an integral part of this process. Today, our fate is also being decided in Ukraine. For its part, Georgia will never give up its Euro-Atlantic choice.
- More than a month has passed since Georgia applied for EU membership. As far as I know, there is still no concrete answer from Brussels. Please, share your assessment of Georgia's European prospects. And has the situation around Ukraine changed these prospects?
- You are right, more than a month has passed, but there is still no positive response from Brussels, and this is really alarming. And the Georgian government is directly responsible for this. It's one thing to apply and another to take concrete action. Unfortunately, recently more and more unpleasant statements are being made about our country from the tribune of the European Union, which can jeopardize its European future.
Of course, this process is directly related to the developments in Ukraine, as well as to the tense relations that are becoming more and more evident between the Georgian and Ukrainian authorities. It is urgent to normalize these relations and return them to their former course, because Georgia and Ukraine are historical friends, we have one goal and one common enemy. Today, more than 2,000 Georgian volunteers are fighting for Ukraine, and this is logical. I remain optimistic and I think that Georgia will definitely become a member of the European family together with Ukraine. I am sure that the same will happen in the case of Armenia as well.
- What role does Bidzina Ivanishvili continue to play in Georgian politics in general, and in Georgia's refusal to join the sanctions against Russia in particular?
- It is difficult for me to answer this question, because Ivanishvili has been out of sight for a year now. He left the post of chairman of the ruling party and announced that he was leaving politics and would never return. And of course, I don't know what's going on behind the scenes. However, there are, of course, doubts that he is still the main decision maker in the country. As for the issue of not joining the sanctions, I think that this wording is somewhat exaggerated, because we are automatically involved in the policy of sanctions, since we are affiliated with international financial institutions and live by their agenda.
I think that this topic has been over-dramatized, which was partly due to the statements of some representatives of our government. What is the point of systematic repetition of not joining the sanctions, when it irritates your strategic partner, Ukraine, a lot? And as it turned out, not only the atter. Especially when you are literally part of these sanctions. In such cases, it is necessary to be a little more diplomatic and restrained.
- In recent months, discussions about the possibility of joining an alliance with Russia and Belarus have intensified in Armenia, especially in the context of the situation in Ukraine. As far as I know, Moscow continues to view the South Caucasus as a single zone of its own influence. Have any proposals been voiced in this context in Georgia as well, and how does the Georgian society feel about such a prospect?
- As a friend of your country and people, I will never want such a perspective for your country. This step will be an act of self-liquidation of the Armenian state, which will subsequently affect Georgia as well. I consider it completely unacceptable to even talk about joining in this union, especially in the current conditions. This is an alliance that has committed a real genocide against the "brotherly" Ukrainian people. Today, the entire civilized world has united against these two countries, and in such a situation, what relation can Armenia have to them?
As for the second part of the question, this topic is not even at the level of discussion in the Georgian society, it is taboo. We will never return to the Russian past, because we know very well what it is. However, this does not mean that there are no pro-Russian forces in Georgia. They exist, but their impact on society is negligible.
- The success of the model of economic development of all three countries of the South Caucasus within the framework of a single integration project seems to be axiomatic. In your opinion, what has hindered the last 30 years and continues to hinder the achievement of such an understanding in our countries today?
- During the last thirty years, no other region of the post-Soviet space has had such serious fluctuations as the countries of the South Caucasus. It is the presence of three frozen conflicts that has given us the status of a tense and unstable region. Such a prospect, along with the destructive role of Russia, was fueled by the fact that in the conditions of the important geopolitical processes taking place around the region, all three countries of the region pursued completely different and inconsistent foreign policy courses.
Consequently, the chances of creating a unified regional security system were also zero. It is this reality that needs to be changed, and it is possible only with our reasonable actions. We have never been concerned about our common regional image, we have never presented ourselves as a united force in the international arena, we have never had common regional projects, moreover also a normal threesome neighborly dialogue. Once this mutual estrangement is over, and external players see even a drop of wisdom in us, they will look at us and talk to us in a completely different way.
- For the last several hundred years, the South Caucasus has remained an arena of competition and struggle for influence for the Russia, Turkey and Iran. Can we state that today the situation in our countries continues to be determined by this historical fact? Or, in the current realities, another player has wedged into the Caucasian geopolitics - the West?
- Everything changes with time, and this is an axiom. Time has also changed the world, which, thanks to modern technology, has somehow " shrunk ". Therefore, it is clear that such a geopolitically important region as the South Caucasus could not remain the sphere of interests of only the three former empires listed above. Therefore, new powerful non-regional players have emerged, such as the collective West and China. . Of course it's good for us, and if we behave wisely and rationally, we can use this competition to our advantage. As I said above, for this, first of all, it is necessary that all three of us (Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia) once and for all resolve the problems between ourselves and act as a single force in relations with external players.
I assure you, it is quite possible. If our generation does not succeed, believe me, the next generation will surely do it, because our unity has no alternative. It will be very disappointing if we fail to do it and miss a historic opportunity.