Talks about `second front` for Russia unfounded, expert states

ArmInfo.Sergey Markedonov, Leading  Researcher of the Euro- Atlantic Security Center, Moscow State  Institute of International Relations (MGIMO), said in an  interview with ArmInfo that he is skeptical about the now popular  descriptions of the present situation in Nagorno- Karabakh as a  "second front" against Russia in the context of rather serious  disagreements Yerevan and Baku had long before the Ukraine crisis. 

"By stating that not all the armed groups have left Karabakh, Baku  obviously raised the issue of 'demilitarizing' Karabakh long before  Ukraine. And while the disagreements between Baku and Moscow over the  presence of Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh were not public before,  they have now been made public, with rather strong-worded statements  made recently.  Besides, Yerevan has reaffirmed its position on  Karabakh's status, an issue Baku hastily consigned to history," Mr  Markedonov said. 

As regards the opinion that Ankara and Baku can ensure the results  they need in Karabakh while Russia is waging war in Ukraine, the  expert describes the present situation as unreliable, explaining it  by Moscow's desire to act as moderator by maintaining the status quo  in all the conflicts. And any attempts to force Russia out without  taking its interests into account can suffer a repulse. In this  context, Mr Markedonov does not think any actions in Karabakh against  the Ukraine background could be of benefit to anyone. 

Given the present relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the March  escalation was not at all a surprise.  Moreover, given the present  "neither peace nor war" state, it would have happened sooner or later  - either in Karabakh or on the border with Armenia. A specific  feature of the ongoing escalation is that the incidents in Karabakh  or along the border are transforming the problems between Baku and  Yerevan into public discussions of disagreements between Baku and  Moscow. 

"I cannot but single out the unusually strong-worded news-sheet by  the RF Ministry of Defense of March 26. Formerly, Moscow used to  apply the 'parity principle' in similar situations. However, this  last time the defense office openly accused Baku of violating the  trilateral agreement of November 9, 2020, and of using a Bayraktar-TB  2 combat drone. In response, Baku accused Moscow of being biased and  criticized it for disregarding the Declaration on Alliance of  February 22, 2020," Mr Markedonov said.  

"And now let us imagine Russia is not conducting a special operation  in Ukraine. I am absolutely sure that it would not rule out  fundamental disagreements between Armenia and Azerbaijan. They have  always been, and Ukraine is not their cause at all. Unrecognized  Nagorno-Karabakh Republic does exist, on a smaller territory though.  Many refugees returned to their homes. Moreover, political life  continues in Nagorno- Karabakh. This being so, Baku has nothing to do  but use a tactic of pressure followed by diplomatic initiatives," Mr  Markedonov said.