ArmInfo.Sergey Markedonov, Leading Researcher of the Euro- Atlantic Security Center, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO), said in an interview with ArmInfo that he is skeptical about the now popular descriptions of the present situation in Nagorno- Karabakh as a "second front" against Russia in the context of rather serious disagreements Yerevan and Baku had long before the Ukraine crisis.
"By stating that not all the armed groups have left Karabakh, Baku obviously raised the issue of 'demilitarizing' Karabakh long before Ukraine. And while the disagreements between Baku and Moscow over the presence of Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh were not public before, they have now been made public, with rather strong-worded statements made recently. Besides, Yerevan has reaffirmed its position on Karabakh's status, an issue Baku hastily consigned to history," Mr Markedonov said.
As regards the opinion that Ankara and Baku can ensure the results they need in Karabakh while Russia is waging war in Ukraine, the expert describes the present situation as unreliable, explaining it by Moscow's desire to act as moderator by maintaining the status quo in all the conflicts. And any attempts to force Russia out without taking its interests into account can suffer a repulse. In this context, Mr Markedonov does not think any actions in Karabakh against the Ukraine background could be of benefit to anyone.
Given the present relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the March escalation was not at all a surprise. Moreover, given the present "neither peace nor war" state, it would have happened sooner or later - either in Karabakh or on the border with Armenia. A specific feature of the ongoing escalation is that the incidents in Karabakh or along the border are transforming the problems between Baku and Yerevan into public discussions of disagreements between Baku and Moscow.
"I cannot but single out the unusually strong-worded news-sheet by the RF Ministry of Defense of March 26. Formerly, Moscow used to apply the 'parity principle' in similar situations. However, this last time the defense office openly accused Baku of violating the trilateral agreement of November 9, 2020, and of using a Bayraktar-TB 2 combat drone. In response, Baku accused Moscow of being biased and criticized it for disregarding the Declaration on Alliance of February 22, 2020," Mr Markedonov said.
"And now let us imagine Russia is not conducting a special operation in Ukraine. I am absolutely sure that it would not rule out fundamental disagreements between Armenia and Azerbaijan. They have always been, and Ukraine is not their cause at all. Unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic does exist, on a smaller territory though. Many refugees returned to their homes. Moreover, political life continues in Nagorno- Karabakh. This being so, Baku has nothing to do but use a tactic of pressure followed by diplomatic initiatives," Mr Markedonov said.