ArmInfo.Any results of the war in Ukraine is fraught with new threats and challenges to Armenia, Arsakh and entire South Caucasus, Director of the Caucasus Institute Alexander Askandaryan said in an interview with ArmInfo.
"The scenarios can be seen, which, if unfold, are capable of forming an entirely different geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus. First, Russia's victory in the war against Ukraine. Second, Ukraine will hold out, which is tantamount to its victory. And the third scenario is the belligerents will remain embroiled in the war, in which case it will turn into a long-lasting conflict for them," Mr Iskandaryan said.
The last scenario will be accompanied with decreasing attention to the South Caucasus on the part of not both the West and Russia. The key actors will not have time for the Caucasus, which will naturally cause the key regional actor, Turkey, to even more focus its attention on the region. And this last scenario is in the interests of Turkey's ally Azerbaijan, but is by no means in the interests of Armenia and Artsakh.
"I have repeatedly spoken of the global trend of regional powers' strengthening their positions even before the Ukraine war. And we can see that in this particular case the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has reinforced this trend. And Baku can see it as well. So they are feeling the pulse, including that of the Russian peacekeepers, by firing at Armenian troops on the border, at civilians in Artsakh," Mr Iskandaryan said.
For a certain period Baku abstained from this step, as it believed the war in Ukraine would stop as suddenly as it broke out. And they took cautious steps only after they were convinced the war would at least last longer and, in the foreseeable future, with Russia's diminishing influence in the region, Azerbaijan could attempt to take one of the chances available.
"To be precise, I can say that Azerbaijan started 'feeling the pulse' by organizing protests against Russia in front of the Ukrainian Embassy in Baku. And Azerbaijan is far from being a country with spontaneous protests by civil society, given the actual absence of civil society in that country. In any case, we should not expect anything good of the unfolding situation, its prospects and further scenarios. So we have to get ready for negative scenarios. First of all, employing independent diplomatic and military methods, without hoping for anyone else," Mr Iskandaryan said