Any results of Ukraine war fraught with new threats to South  Caucasus, political scientist says

ArmInfo.Any results of the war in Ukraine is fraught with new threats and challenges to Armenia, Arsakh and entire South Caucasus, Director of the Caucasus Institute  Alexander Askandaryan said in an interview with ArmInfo.  

"The scenarios can be seen, which, if unfold, are capable of forming  an entirely different geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus.  First, Russia's victory in the war against Ukraine. Second, Ukraine  will hold out, which is tantamount to its victory. And the third  scenario is the belligerents will remain embroiled in the war, in  which case it will turn into a long-lasting conflict for them," Mr  Iskandaryan said.  

The last scenario will be accompanied with decreasing attention to  the South Caucasus on the part of not both the West and  Russia. The  key actors will not have time for the Caucasus, which will naturally  cause the key regional actor, Turkey, to even more focus its  attention on the region. And this last scenario is in the interests  of Turkey's ally Azerbaijan, but is by no means in the interests of  Armenia and Artsakh.  

"I have repeatedly spoken of the global trend of regional powers'  strengthening their positions even before the Ukraine war. And we can  see that in this particular case the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has  reinforced this trend. And Baku can see it as well. So they are  feeling the pulse, including that of the Russian peacekeepers, by  firing at Armenian troops on the border, at civilians in Artsakh," Mr  Iskandaryan said. 

For a certain period Baku abstained from this step, as it believed  the war in Ukraine would stop as suddenly as it broke out. And they  took cautious steps only after they were convinced the war would at  least last longer and, in the foreseeable future, with Russia's  diminishing influence in the region, Azerbaijan could attempt to take  one of the chances available.

"To be precise, I can say that Azerbaijan started 'feeling the pulse'  by organizing protests against Russia in front of the Ukrainian  Embassy in Baku. And Azerbaijan is far from being a country with  spontaneous protests by civil society, given the actual absence of  civil society in that country. In any case, we should not expect  anything good of the unfolding situation, its prospects and further  scenarios. So we have to get ready for negative scenarios. First of  all, employing independent diplomatic and military methods, without  hoping for anyone else," Mr Iskandaryan said