ArmInfo.Preliminary analyses and conditional forecasts show that the Russian military operation in Ukraine could continue for around a month, Vladimir Yevseyev, Head of the Eurasian Integration and Development Department of the SCO Institute of CIS countries, said in an interview with ArmInfo.
"It is clear that our advance in Ukraine entails losses. Our Ministry of Defense has reported the figure, 498. I think that the losses are not great considering the fact that the 60,000-strong Ukrainian army is opposing our troops. Also, the scale of hostilities should be taken into account as well. Of course, our losses could have been smaller but for the Ukrainian army's coordinated and active resistance," he said.
As regards the possibility of the other CSTO member-states' involvement in the military operation in Ukraine, especially in the context of the bill on ratification of the protocol on amendments to the Agreement on CSTO peacekeeping activities - the bill Russian President Vladimir Putin recently introduced before the State Duma - Mr Yevseyev does not see any direct links between the bill and the conflict in Ukraine.
In this context, he points out that Russia has always been the state coordinating the CSTO activities, playing a key role in the structure. As to the fact that the CSTO member-states, except for Belarus, are not involved in the Ukraine conflict, the expert believes the bill could be adopted in the future.
On March 3, the Russian president introduced before the State Duma the bill on ratification of the protocol on amendments to the Agreement on CSTO peacekeeping activities, which was signed in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, on September 16, 2021. The protocol introduces the concept of "Coordinator-State" and provides for the formation of CSTO peacekeeping forces under the Coordinator-State's auspices to be involved in UN peacekeeping operations. Signing and ratifying the protocol opens up opportunities for collective involvement in UN peacekeeping operations in behalf of the CSTO, with one of the CSTO member-state as coordinator.
In commenting on Armenia's position on the Ukraine conflict, Mr Yevseyev noted that Yerevan's neutrality is preferable to agreeing with the West. In this context he points out almost all the post-Soviet states are holding similar multipronged positions, which is detrimental in the context of the bitter confrontation between Russia and the West. In any case, neutrality is the best decision for Armenia, the expert said.