Demographer: In reality, 4200 people left Armenia in 2021, and not 43  or 73 thousand people

ArmInfo.In reality, 4.200 people left Armenia in 2021, and not 43,874 or even 73,000 people. Associate Expert of the Armenian Institute of International  and  Security Affairs, demographer Artak Markosyan, expressed a similar  opinion to ArmInfo.

"The negative migration balance at the end of last year amounted to  exactly 4200. While the figure of 43874, periodically presented by  various media with persistence, demonstrates only the difference  between the passenger traffic arriving and departing from Armenia. It  is clear that it does not reflect, it can not reflect the migration  balance index," he stressed.

According to Markosyan, this migration balance is the result of  methodological calculations of the Statistical Committee. And the  negative migration balance of 4,200 people, in his opinion, already  inspires very strong concern. Especially given the location of  Armenia in a region with a large natural population growth. In this  light, the demographer noted that such migration rates would not  inspire concern at all, for example, in any of the countries of  Eastern Europe.

Meanwhile, according to the expert,  the birth rate in Armenia as of  today is 1.7, that is, it does not ensure the reproduction of the  existing population. Which, among other things, is primarily due to a  sharp drop in the birth rate in the 1990s. As a result, according to  Markosyan, in 2020, the natural increase in the population of Armenia  amounted to 1917 people. Which, according to his estimates, is one of  the lowest figures, given that, for example, in 2002, the natural  population growth reached 7,900 people.

Returning to the indicators of the migration balance, the expert  noted that in all recent years, the only positive migration balance  in Armenia + 3,400 people was recorded in 2020. Which was due to  roads closed due to the pandemic, as a result of which tens of  thousands of compatriots - the so-called long-term migrants were  forced to return from Russia to their homeland. Markosyan recalled  that, having remained in the Russian Federation as a result of the  coronavirus pandemic with virtually no means of subsistence, in  April-May 2020, all these people returned to Armenia.

"By the way, this explains the sharp increase in passenger traffic  leaving Armenia with Armenian passports in 2021. Basically, those  people who returned to their homeland in 2020 left the country. Since  by that time in the Russian Federation, they again had the  opportunity to work and do business. In this light, the numbers of  entry and exit voiced by some media as evidence of a negative  migration balance have nothing to do with the reality," Markosyan  summed up.