ArmInfo.In reality, 4.200 people left Armenia in 2021, and not 43,874 or even 73,000 people. Associate Expert of the Armenian Institute of International and Security Affairs, demographer Artak Markosyan, expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.
"The negative migration balance at the end of last year amounted to exactly 4200. While the figure of 43874, periodically presented by various media with persistence, demonstrates only the difference between the passenger traffic arriving and departing from Armenia. It is clear that it does not reflect, it can not reflect the migration balance index," he stressed.
According to Markosyan, this migration balance is the result of methodological calculations of the Statistical Committee. And the negative migration balance of 4,200 people, in his opinion, already inspires very strong concern. Especially given the location of Armenia in a region with a large natural population growth. In this light, the demographer noted that such migration rates would not inspire concern at all, for example, in any of the countries of Eastern Europe.
Meanwhile, according to the expert, the birth rate in Armenia as of today is 1.7, that is, it does not ensure the reproduction of the existing population. Which, among other things, is primarily due to a sharp drop in the birth rate in the 1990s. As a result, according to Markosyan, in 2020, the natural increase in the population of Armenia amounted to 1917 people. Which, according to his estimates, is one of the lowest figures, given that, for example, in 2002, the natural population growth reached 7,900 people.
Returning to the indicators of the migration balance, the expert noted that in all recent years, the only positive migration balance in Armenia + 3,400 people was recorded in 2020. Which was due to roads closed due to the pandemic, as a result of which tens of thousands of compatriots - the so-called long-term migrants were forced to return from Russia to their homeland. Markosyan recalled that, having remained in the Russian Federation as a result of the coronavirus pandemic with virtually no means of subsistence, in April-May 2020, all these people returned to Armenia.
"By the way, this explains the sharp increase in passenger traffic leaving Armenia with Armenian passports in 2021. Basically, those people who returned to their homeland in 2020 left the country. Since by that time in the Russian Federation, they again had the opportunity to work and do business. In this light, the numbers of entry and exit voiced by some media as evidence of a negative migration balance have nothing to do with the reality," Markosyan summed up.