ArmInfo.The fact of appointing a rather inexperienced, especially in comparison with Serdar Kilic, Ruben Rubinyan as the special representative of Armenia in negotiations with Turkey gives the impression that in reality everything has already been agreed between Yerevan and Ankara.
Accordingly, the negotiations will be purely imitation. ARF bureau's Hay Dat and political affairs office director Kiro Manoyan expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.
"In principle, a significant difference in weight categories, the defeat of Armenia in the war not only against Azerbaijan, but actually against Turkey in the fall of 2020, already forms a certain attitude of Ankara towards Yerevan. Which gives the figure of the Armenian special representative, at best, a third-rate significance. The Turks consider the Artsakh issue resolved, but continue to demand the "Zangezur Corridor", which is a continuation of their long-term policy of preconditions towards Armenia," he noted.
The ARF member considers the destruction of the political theses and goals of the Armenian Diaspora in the United States to be an important goal of Ankara in the processes with Yerevan, which contains a certain danger. First of all, due to the prospect of the formation by the Turks, with the support of the Armenian authorities, obstacles in the way of the activities of the "Hay Data" offices and other Diaspora political bodies. According to his forecasts, if official Yerevan opposes the work of these bodies, it will be much more difficult for the Armenians of the Diaspora to defend their interests. Which, in Manoyan's opinion, will end with a surge of discontent not only in the Diaspora, but also in Armenia itself.
The ARF member does not see special economic benefits for Armenia from the prospect of unblocking the Armenian-Turkish border. Referring to the research and analysis of ARF experts in this area, he stressed that the opening of the Turkish market for Armenian products will end in nothing. First of all, due to the need to comply with European standards for imports to Turkey. So far, very few such goods are produced in Armenia, while nothing prevents the Turks from exporting goods of any quality to Armenia today.
Manoyan sees another threat in the economic component of the normalization of relations - the economic expansion of Turkey in Armenia with the prospect of political expansion, through the purchase of strategically important objects on the way of which there are no legislative restrictions in Armenia. Along with the remaining issues on the agenda, dragging Armenia into economic dependence on them, Turkey and Azerbaijan will use all opportunities to dictate their terms and policies to Armenia.
"We must understand the main thing: Turkey does not want to see an independent Armenia as its equal neighbor. The Turks are pursuing a process with Armenia exclusively in one direction - the formation of our country's dependence on them. Something similar has already happened with neighboring Georgia. This is a clear example for us. The ARF is absolutely not against the establishment of normal relations with Turkey, but only if Ankara does not have the desire to make Armenia dependent on itself. The Turks must recognize the Genocide, pay compensation and thus provide us with guarantees that such events will not happen again in the future. Only after that it will be possible to normalize relations," summed up the ARF member.