ArmInfo.The Putin-Pashinyan-Aliyev meeting in Sochi is evidence that Moscow views the forthcoming meeting between the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders in Brussels as an attempt to challenge its monopoly in settling the Armenia-Azerbaijani disputes, Russian expert in the CIS Arkady Dubnov told ArmInfo.
"In this context, noteworthy is the hasty preparations for the Sochi summit. And the consent Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev gave to a meeting in Brussels on December 15 at the invitation of the President of the European Council Charles Michel only sped up the process. I think Moscow had all the reasons to think that the Brussels initiative could be an attempt to its monopoly in Karabakh - even despite Europe`s assurances that they did not hold any high expectations about Brussels as a starting point for a breakthrough in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict settlement," the expert said. He stressed that the meeting in Sochi was possible only after the armed incident in Armenia`s Syunik on November 16 - the largest-scale hostilities since last November. And the Armenian premier was right when he described it as "Azerbaijani troops` incursion into Armenia`s sovereign territory." Without rejecting this, Mr Dubnov stressed that it is only by enforcement that peace can be established in the South Caucasus. And Baku demonstrated it not only on November 16, 2021, but also last autumn by upsetting the long- standing status quo as a result of the 44-day war.
According to Dubnov, Moscow had been seeking to preserve the status quo of 1994 as a factor enabling it to keep the post-Soviet conflicts frozen as long as possible. In its turn, Yerevan viewed the status quo as the happy outcome of the first Karabakh and hopes to retain it as long as possible. However, Baku would not agree and, regardless of the cost they had to pay for the 44 days, settled the matter by force and is now presenting a claim to Yerevan.
Elaborating on the Sochi meeting results, the expert said the complete absence of any mention of Nagorno- Karabakh in the statements by Presidents Vladimir Putin and Ilham Aliyev was evidence of Moscow`s desire to disregard Baku`s ambition to close the question of Nagorno-Karabakh`s status as a result of the 44-day war. Moscow does not at all share Baku`s attitude nor is it eager to advertise the fact. The primary reason is the Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh and Moscow`s desire to extend their presence after the 5-year period has expired.
"So it must be the discussion of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem outside the Sochi meeting agenda that enabled Yerevan and Baku to bypass their fundamental disagreements and focus on the problems that can be resolved now. It should be admitted that the Karabakh is not a dominant political issue in Armenia. Striking evidence thereof is the results of the Sochi meeting, namely, the quite positive final public statements by Pashinyan and Aliyev," Dubnov said.