ArmInfo.Several causes account for the latest armed escalation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, the military expert Vladimir Yevseyev, Head of the Caucasus Section, CIS Institute, told ArmInfo.
"You know, Baku euphoria over the victory in last year`s Nagorno-Karabakh war is fueled by external forces that are not interested in Russia`s expanding presence in the South Caucasus. By and large, I do not see a possibility of a large-scale war between Armenia and Azerbaijan now, but a new war in Nagorno- Karabakh cannot be ruled out either. A new war may break out both due to domestic political causes - Azerbaijan never achieved the set targets last year - and due to foreign intervention by, example, Turkey," he said.
Of course, Moscow could preempt the expansion of the conflict by deploying troops from its Military Base 102 in Gyumri. Thus, Azerbaijan will come under pressure the Armenian armed forces are unable to exert on it. According to the expert, these are still in need of recovery and are incapable of large-scale hostilities. The communication problem is part of this process, which is a serious obstacle to possible introduction of Russian troops into Armenia. One of the obstacles is the absence of a common border between Armenia and Russia. In this context, Yevseyev points out the advisability of deployment of a second Russian military base in Armenia, as Military Base 102 is not supposed to defend Armenia from Azerbaijan. "The Armenian authorities must share the responsibility for the situation as well. And it is rather heavy. First of all, it is lack of steps to defuse regional tension. After all, the country`s leader must secure its territorial integrity. And if you premier is unable to do so, he may resign and open the way to the people who are able to do it," the expert said.
Any attempts of blackmailing Russia are futile, Yevseyev said, stressing that Russia is not going to fight a war for Armenia instead of Armenians themselves. It can do it together with Armenians. In this context, he singled out the Armenian leadership`s "double-faced policy" - fueling anti-Russian sentiments in the country and, at the same time, expecting Russian aid without any steps to create an infrastructure for this aid to arrive in Armenia.
By shelling the Armenian positions in the east direction on November 14, Azerbaijan made a step toward a spiraling escalation of its conflict with Armenia. On November 16, Azerbaijani troops attacked the Armenian position using artillery, armored vehicles and firearms, and made an incursion into Armenia`s territory. Local fighting caused losses to both sides. The hostilities ended at 6:30pm Nov. 16, under an agreement with the Russian mediation.